CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Forex News Timeline
06:48 USD/CAD remains subdued around 1.3650 due to higher crude prices, disappointing US PMI
USD/CAD continues its losing streak that began on April 17, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian session on Wednesday.
USD/CAD faces challenges due to improved risk sentiment, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.The US Dollar lost ground after the release of downbeat US PMI data released on Tuesday.The Canadian Dollar receives support from the uptick in crude Oil prices.USD/CAD continues its losing streak that began on April 17, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair receives downward pressure due to the downbeat US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to the disappointing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) released on Tuesday.
In April, the preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI for the US declined to 50.9 from the previous reading of 52.1. Additionally, the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 from 51.9 in the previous reading, below the estimated 52.0. Similarly, the Services PMI decreased to 50.9, compared to the prior 51.7, falling short of the expected 52.0.
In Canada, the uptick in crude Oil prices contributes upward support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), given the fact that Canada is the largest crude Oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $83.20 per barrel, by the press time.
Crude Oil prices have advanced following industry data indicating an unexpected decrease in US crude stocks last week, signaling positive demand dynamics. Attention has shifted away from tensions in the Middle East. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 3.23 million barrels decline in weekly crude Oil stocks for the week ending April 19, contrary to the expected increase of 1.80 million barrels and the previous week's increase of 4.09 million barrels.
Canadian Industrial Product Price Index rose by 0.8% in March, in line with expectations and slightly lower than the previous month's upwardly revised figure of 1.1%. Additionally, the New Housing Price Index remained unchanged in March, against forecasts of a 0.1% increase, with the year-over-year NHPI declining by 0.4%. Investors will keep an eye on Canadian Retail Sales data due on Wednesday.
USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3664 Today Daily Change 0.0001 Today Daily Change % 0.01 Today daily open 1.3663
Trends Daily SMA20 1.365 Daily SMA50 1.3576 Daily SMA100 1.3497 Daily SMA200 1.3534
Levels Previous Daily High 1.3714 Previous Daily Low 1.3656 Previous Weekly High 1.3846 Previous Weekly Low 1.3724 Previous Monthly High 1.3614 Previous Monthly Low 1.342 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3678 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3692 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3641 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.362 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3583 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.37 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3736 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3758
06:17 USD/INR rebounds amid firmer US Dollar, hawkish Fed stance
Indian Rupee (INR) is losing its recovery momentum on Wednesday amid US Dollar (USD) demand from importers and bets that US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are not imminent.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee trades on a softer note on Wednesday on USD demand. The positive outlook for the Indian economy might support the INR and cap the pair’s upside.Investors will focus on the US March Durable Goods Orders, which are due on Wednesday.Indian Rupee (INR) is losing its recovery momentum on Wednesday amid US Dollar (USD) demand from importers and bets that US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are not imminent. Nonetheless, the positive cues from local equities and the optimistic outlook in the Indian economy might boost the INR and limit the pair’s upside in the near term. India's business activity continued to strengthen in April and expanded at its fastest pace in nearly 14 years, owing to strong demand, according to a survey released on Tuesday. The report suggested India is well positioned to be the fastest-growing major economy this year after impressive growth in recent quarters.
The US March Durable Goods Orders are due on Wednesday. Later this week, market participants will keep an eye on the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the first quarter, which is estimated to grow 2.5% in Q1. On Friday, the final reading of the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be in the spotlight. Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains weak despite the positive economic outlookIndia’s HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 59.1 in April, compared to 59.1 in March. The Services PMI figure rose to 61.7 from the previous reading of 61.2. “Strong performance in both the manufacturing and service sectors, led by increased new orders, resulted in the highest composite output index since June 2010," said HSBC chief India economist, Pranjul Bhandari. The US flash S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 52.1, indicating US business activity continued to expand in April, albeit at a softer pace than in March. The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in April from 51.9 in the previous reading, weaker than the estimation of 52.0. The Services PMI decreased to 50.9, compared to 51.7 prior, worse than the 52.0 expected. US New Home Sales rose 8.8% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000 units in March, the highest level since September 2023.Technical analysis: USD/INR’s longer-term bullish trend remains intact The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. The bullish vibe of USD/INR remains unchanged on the daily chart as the pair remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the 50.00 midline, indicating further consolidation or downside cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term USD/INR appreciation.
Looking at the bright side, the immediate resistance level for the pair is seen at 83.50 (high of April 15). Further north, the next upside target will emerge at 83.72 (an all-time high), en route to 84.00 (round figure). On the flip side, the initial contention level for USD/INR is located in the 83.10–83.15 region, portraying the confluence of the 100-day EMA and a low of April 10. Any follow-through selling will pave the way to 82.78 (low of January 15), followed by 82.65 (low of March 16). US Dollar price todayThe table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD -0.06% -0.07% -0.01% -0.54% 0.03% -0.20% 0.01%EUR0.06% 0.00% 0.05% -0.47% 0.09% -0.10% 0.05%GBP0.07% -0.01% 0.06% -0.46% 0.09% -0.10% 0.06%CAD0.01% -0.06% -0.04% -0.52% 0.04% -0.16% 0.00%AUD0.53% 0.45% 0.44% 0.51% 0.54% 0.33% 0.51%JPY-0.04% -0.10% -0.10% -0.04% -0.56% -0.18% -0.04%NZD0.24% 0.12% 0.12% 0.15% -0.34% 0.21% 0.18%CHF0.00% -0.05% -0.07% 0.00% -0.51% 0.04% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
The US March Durable Goods Orders are due on Wednesday. Later this week, market participants will keep an eye on the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the first quarter, which is estimated to grow 2.5% in Q1. On Friday, the final reading of the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be in the spotlight. Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains weak despite the positive economic outlookIndia’s HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 59.1 in April, compared to 59.1 in March. The Services PMI figure rose to 61.7 from the previous reading of 61.2. “Strong performance in both the manufacturing and service sectors, led by increased new orders, resulted in the highest composite output index since June 2010," said HSBC chief India economist, Pranjul Bhandari. The US flash S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 52.1, indicating US business activity continued to expand in April, albeit at a softer pace than in March. The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in April from 51.9 in the previous reading, weaker than the estimation of 52.0. The Services PMI decreased to 50.9, compared to 51.7 prior, worse than the 52.0 expected. US New Home Sales rose 8.8% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000 units in March, the highest level since September 2023.Technical analysis: USD/INR’s longer-term bullish trend remains intact The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. The bullish vibe of USD/INR remains unchanged on the daily chart as the pair remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the 50.00 midline, indicating further consolidation or downside cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term USD/INR appreciation.
Looking at the bright side, the immediate resistance level for the pair is seen at 83.50 (high of April 15). Further north, the next upside target will emerge at 83.72 (an all-time high), en route to 84.00 (round figure). On the flip side, the initial contention level for USD/INR is located in the 83.10–83.15 region, portraying the confluence of the 100-day EMA and a low of April 10. Any follow-through selling will pave the way to 82.78 (low of January 15), followed by 82.65 (low of March 16). US Dollar price todayThe table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD -0.06% -0.07% -0.01% -0.54% 0.03% -0.20% 0.01%EUR0.06% 0.00% 0.05% -0.47% 0.09% -0.10% 0.05%GBP0.07% -0.01% 0.06% -0.46% 0.09% -0.10% 0.06%CAD0.01% -0.06% -0.04% -0.52% 0.04% -0.16% 0.00%AUD0.53% 0.45% 0.44% 0.51% 0.54% 0.33% 0.51%JPY-0.04% -0.10% -0.10% -0.04% -0.56% -0.18% -0.04%NZD0.24% 0.12% 0.12% 0.15% -0.34% 0.21% 0.18%CHF0.00% -0.05% -0.07% 0.00% -0.51% 0.04% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
06:08 Australian Dollar rises on upbeat CPI figures, subdued US Dollar
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its winning streak for the third successive day after the release of the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar appreciates after the release of stronger-than-expected CPI data released on Wednesday.The Australian Dollar receives upward support due to the improved risk appetite, along with the higher ASX 200 Index.The US Dollar faced challenges after the downbeat PMI data was released on Tuesday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its winning streak for the third successive day after the release of the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The upbeat inflation figures have the potential to fuel a hawkish sentiment regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook. This has contributed to the strength of the Australian Dollar (AUD), thereby supporting the AUD/USD pair.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances, tracking the higher ASX 200 Index, with notable contributions from the technology and healthcare sectors. Australian stocks are mirroring the positive momentum observed on Wall Street, driven by strong corporate earnings reports that have bolstered market sentiment.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), gauging the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, experiences downward pressure amid a decrease in US Treasury yields. Furthermore, disappointing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) weighed on the US Dollar (USD), thereby supporting the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, inflation reports indicate that business activity in the United States continued to expand in April, albeit at a slower pace compared to March.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar appreciates on upbeat consumer inflation data Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% QoQ in the first quarter of 2024, against the expected 0.8% and 0.6% prior. CPI (YoY) increased by 3.6% compared to the forecasted 3.4% for Q1 and 4.1% prior. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose by 3.5% in March, against the market expectations and the previous reading of 3.4%. On Tuesday, the US preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 52.1. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 from 51.9 in the previous reading, weaker than the estimation of 52.0. The Services PMI decreased to 50.9, compared to 51.7 prior, worse than the 52.0 expected. Australia's Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Tuesday, showed a surge to a 24-month high of 53.6 in April, marking an improvement from the previous month's 53.3. Manufacturing PMI rose to an eight-month high of 49.9 in April, compared to March's 47.3. Services PMI declined to a 2-month low of 54.2 compared to the previous reading of 54.4. The China Securities Journal reported on Tuesday that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will decrease the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate, aiming to lower funding costs. The next MLF rate setting is scheduled for May 15. This decision could potentially influence the Australian market, given the close trade relationship between the two countries. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rates remaining unchanged in the June meeting has risen to 84.6%, up from the previous week's 82.7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves above the psychological level of 0.6500
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6520 on Wednesday. The pair has breached into the symmetrical triangle, indicating a shift towards bullish sentiment. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50-level, supporting this bullish outlook.
The AUD/USD pair may aim for the psychological level of 0.6600 and attempt to reach the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle near 0.6639, potentially reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
In terms of the downside, immediate support is anticipated around the psychological level of 0.6500, aligned with the lower boundary of the triangle. A breach below this channel could exert downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, with the next significant support level at 0.6456. Further support is located at April’s low of 0.6362.
AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD -0.08% -0.05% -0.01% -0.45% 0.04% -0.13% 0.00%EUR0.07% 0.02% 0.06% -0.36% 0.11% -0.07% 0.04%GBP0.05% -0.02% 0.05% -0.38% 0.09% -0.08% 0.04%CAD0.01% -0.06% -0.05% -0.43% 0.05% -0.13% -0.01%AUD0.45% 0.34% 0.38% 0.41% 0.41% 0.30% 0.42%JPY-0.05% -0.13% -0.08% -0.04% -0.48% -0.13% -0.05%NZD0.16% 0.07% 0.10% 0.12% -0.30% 0.13% 0.13%CHF0.01% -0.04% -0.04% 0.00% -0.42% 0.07% -0.12%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
05:33 NZD/USD sticks gains near mid-0.5900s, over one-week high amid positive risk tone
NZD/USD gains positive traction for the third straight day amid a softer USD.
NZD/USD gains positive traction for the third straight day amid a softer USD.Tuesday’s disappointing US PMIs and a positive risk tone undermine the buck.Reduced Fed rate cut bets should help limit the USD losses and cap the major.The NZD/USD pair attracts follow-through buying for the third successive day on Wednesday and climbs to over a one-week high, around mid-0.5900s during the Asian session amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Weaker US PMI prints released on Tuesday indicated that the economic upturn lost momentum at the start of the second quarter. Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets and undermines the safe-haven buck, which, in turn, is seen benefitting the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations help limit the downside for the USD and keep a lid on the NZD/USD pair.
Market participants now seem convinced that the Fed is unlikely to begin its rate-cutting cycle in June and have also scaled back their expectations about the total number of rate cuts in 2024 to less than two, or around 40 basis points. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and is likely to act as a tailwind for the Greenback. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the NZD/USD pair and cap the upside.
Investors now look forward to the release of the US Durable Goods Orders for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the Advance US Q1 GDP print and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively. This will influence market expectations about the Fed's future policy decisions, which will drive the USD demand and help in determining the near-term trajectory for the NZD/USD pair.
NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5946 Today Daily Change 0.0013 Today Daily Change % 0.22 Today daily open 0.5933
Trends Daily SMA20 0.5965 Daily SMA50 0.6055 Daily SMA100 0.6119 Daily SMA200 0.6051
Levels Previous Daily High 0.5949 Previous Daily Low 0.5902 Previous Weekly High 0.5954 Previous Weekly Low 0.5851 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5931 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.592 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5907 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5881 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.586 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5954 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5975 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6001
05:07 AUD/JPY extends winning streak on upbeat Australian CPI data
AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive day after paring intraday losses on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY gains ground due to the stronger-than-expected Australian consumer inflation data.The ASX 200 Index appreciates, primarily fueled by advancements in technology and healthcare stocks.The Japanese Yen faces challenges as the yield gap widens between Japan and other major countries.AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive day after paring intraday losses on Wednesday. Additionally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, guiding the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. This has bolstered the Australian Dollar (AUD), consequently, underpinning the AUD/JPY cross.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) receives upward support due to the improved risk appetite, along with the higher ASX 200 Index, particularly driven by gains in technology and healthcare stocks. Australian shares followed the positive trend seen on Wall Street, buoyed by robust corporate earnings reports, which have lifted market sentiment. Additionally, diminishing tensions in the Middle East have contributed to a positive market atmosphere.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) encounters difficulties due to the widening yield gap between Japan and numerous other major countries, leading traders to borrow JPY and seek higher yields in other assets. Despite this trend, intervention by Japanese authorities to buy Yen has not yet occurred. With the Bank of Japan (BoJ) commencing its two-day policy meeting on Thursday, Tokyo may refrain from intervening in the currency market until at least next week.
Daily Digest Market Movers: AUD/JPY appreciates on stronger CPI, risk-on mood Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% QoQ in the first quarter of 2024, against the expected 0.8% and 0.6% prior. CPI (YoY) increased by 3.6% compared to the forecasted 3.4% for Q1 and 4.1% prior. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose by 3.5% in March, against the market expectations and the previous reading of 3.4%. On Tuesday, Australia's Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a surge to a 24-month high of 53.6 in April, marking an improvement from the previous month's 53.3. Manufacturing PMI rose to an eight-month high of 49.9 in April, compared to March's 47.3. Services PMI declined to a 2-month low of 54.2 compared to the previous reading of 54.4. Japan’s Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.9 in April as data showed on Tuesday, compared to the expected reading of 48.0 and 48.2 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 54.6 from the previous reading of 54.1. Reuters reported that Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank would raise interest rates again if trend inflation accelerates toward its 2% target, in line with its forecast. Ueda also said that it is hard to predict in advance the ideal timeframe for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to gather sufficient data before considering a policy change. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Tuesday that last week's trilateral meeting with his counterparts from the US and South Korea likely established a foundation for Tokyo to undertake necessary measures in the foreign exchange market, according to a Reuters report. The China Securities Journal reported on Tuesday that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will decrease the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate, aiming to lower funding costs. The next MLF rate setting is scheduled for May 15. This decision could potentially influence the Australian market, given the close trade relationship between the two countries.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY rises to the psychological level of 101.00
The AUD/JPY trades around 100.90 on Wednesday. The currency cross moves above April’s high of 100.81. The daily ascending channel, coupled with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reacting above the 50 level, indicates a strengthening bullish sentiment. The immediate barrier appears at the psychological level of 101.00. A breakthrough above this level could prompt the AUD/JPY cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 101.50.
On the downside, the AUD/JPY cross could find key support at the major level of 100.50. A break below this level could lead the currency cross to the support level of 99.65, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around the level of 99.00.
AUD/JPY: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD -0.05% -0.05% 0.00% -0.56% 0.03% -0.10% -0.01%EUR0.05% -0.01% 0.04% -0.49% 0.08% -0.08% 0.01%GBP0.05% 0.01% 0.05% -0.48% 0.09% -0.08% 0.03%CAD0.01% -0.04% -0.05% -0.54% 0.04% -0.13% -0.02%AUD0.53% 0.45% 0.48% 0.54% 0.53% 0.40% 0.51%JPY-0.04% -0.09% -0.10% -0.04% -0.57% -0.12% -0.06%NZD0.13% 0.09% 0.09% 0.12% -0.45% 0.13% 0.13%CHF0.02% -0.01% -0.03% 0.02% -0.52% 0.07% -0.11%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:55 Japanese Yen extends its consolidative price move near multi-decade low against USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and languishes near a multi-decade low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen fails to lure buyers in the wake of the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations. A positive risk tone also undermines the JPY, though intervention fears help limit further losses.Traders also seem reluctant ahead of this week’s key central bank event risk and US macro data.The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and languishes near a multi-decade low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday. Traders now seem reluctant and opt to wait for the crucial Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision on Friday. Apart from this, investors this week will confront the release of the Advance Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index from the US on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The combination of key central bank event risk and important US macro data will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.
In the meantime, expectations that the gap in interest rates between the US and Japan will stay wide, along with a generally positive risk tone, continue to undermine the safe-haven JPY. However, speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene to prop up the domestic currency hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, the US Dollar (USD) hangs near its lowest level in over a week touched in the aftermath of disappointing US PMIs on Tuesday and turns out to be another factor that contributes to capping the USD/JPY pair. That said, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations should act as a tailwind for the buck and limit the downside for the currency pair.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen seems vulnerable amid BoJ’s uncertainty rate outlook The Bank of Japan's cautious approach, indicating that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for an extended period, fails to assist the Japanese Yen in registering any meaningful recovery from a multi-decade low. Hopes that the Iran-Israel conflict will not escalate further ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and remain supportive of a generally positive risk tone, which turns out to be another factor undermining the safe-haven JPY. The JPY bulls shrugged off a survey by the Finance Ministry, showing that about 70% of companies in Japan will raise pay scale in the fiscal year 2024 and that about 40% of firms were struggling with labor shortages even after raising wages. The recent verbal warnings from Japanese officials that they would intervene in the markets to stem any further weakness in the domestic currency hold back bearish traders from placing fresh bets and help limit deeper losses. Investors keenly await the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day BoJ policy meeting on Friday for cues on when the central bank will raise interest rates again, which, in turn, will determine the near-term trajectory for the JPY. The US Dollar is pressured by weaker US PMI figures for April released on Tuesday, indicating that the economic upturn lost momentum at the start of the second quarter, and contributes to keeping a lid on the USD/JPY pair. The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.9 in April's flash estimate, suggesting that the business activity in the US private sector continued to expand, albeit at a softer pace than in the previous month. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 from 51.9 in April, highlighting a contraction in business activity, while the gauge for the services sector declined to 50.9 from March's final reading of 51.7. Investors, however, seem convinced that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to begin its rate-cutting cycle in June and have also scaled back their expectations about the total number of rate cuts in 2024 to less than two. Traders now look to Wednesday's release of the US Durable Goods Orders, though the focus remains on the Advance Q1 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY might consolidate further amid overbought RSI on the daily chart
From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so could be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent blowout rally from the March swing low. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing overbought conditions and warrants some caution.
This, in turn, suggests that the USD/JPY pair is more likely to extend its consolidative price move or witness a modest pullback before the next leg up. That said, any meaningful corrective slide is likely to find decent support near the 154.55-154.45 region ahead of the 154.00 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken could drag spot prices back towards last Friday's low, around the 153.60-153.55 area.
On the flip side, the multi-decade high, just ahead of the 155 psychological mark, might continue to offer some resistance to the USD/JPY pair. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of a nearly two-month-old upward trajectory.
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:31 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q
04:31 Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.4%) in 1Q: Actual (3.6%)
Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.4%) in 1Q: Actual (3.6%)
04:30 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 4%, above forecasts (3.8%) in 1Q
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 4%, above forecasts (3.8%) in 1Q
04:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q
Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q
04:16 PBoC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1048 vs 7.1059 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1048 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1059 and 7.2363 Reuters estimates.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1048 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1059 and 7.2363 Reuters estimates.
04:05 70% of Japanese companies will implement pay-scale increases in FY 2024
A survey by the Finance Ministry showed on Monday that about 70% of companies in Japan will raise pay scale in fiscal year 2024, per Japan Times.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
A survey by the Finance Ministry showed on Monday that about 70% of companies in Japan will raise pay scale in fiscal year 2024, per Japan Times.Additional takeaways“The proportion of companies planning to raise their pay scales stood at 70.7%, up by 6.3 percentage points from the previous year.”
“Companies at which pay-scale hikes and regular pay increases will total 5% or more came to 36.5%, nearly doubling from the previous year.”
“50.2% of small and medium-sized firms said that they had been unable to pass on rising labor costs in their product and service prices.”
“The survey also showed that about 40% of firms were struggling with labor shortages even after raising wages.”Market reactionAt the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.03% on the day at 154.80. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
“Companies at which pay-scale hikes and regular pay increases will total 5% or more came to 36.5%, nearly doubling from the previous year.”
“50.2% of small and medium-sized firms said that they had been unable to pass on rising labor costs in their product and service prices.”
“The survey also showed that about 40% of firms were struggling with labor shortages even after raising wages.”Market reactionAt the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.03% on the day at 154.80. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
03:15 EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 on weaker US Dollar, upbeat Eurozone PMI
The EUR/USD pair holds above the 1.0700 psychological barrier during the early Asian session on Wednesday.
EUR/USD hovers around 1.0700 on Wednesday amid the weaker US Dollar. The Eurozone flash PMI showed the economy gained recovery momentum in April. S&P Global suggested US business activity continue to expand in April, albeit at a softer pace than in March.The EUR/USD pair holds above the 1.0700 psychological barrier during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected US PMI data for April drags the Greenback lower and creates a tailwind for EUR/USD. Investors will take more cues from Germany’s IFO business sentiment index and Expectations, along with the US March Durable Goods Orders.
Overall business activity in the Eurozone expanded at its fastest pace in almost a year in April, with a robust rebound in the bloc's major service sector, according to the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey released on Tuesday. The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite improved to 51.4 in April from March’s reading of 50.3, better than the estimation of 50.8. The reading registered the highest level in nine months.
Meanwhile, the bloc’s Services PMI hit a fresh eleven-month high, rising to 52.9 in April from 51.5 in March, beating market expectations of 51.8. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.6 in April, compared to the 46.1 reading in March, weaker than the 46.5 expected. In response to the data, the Euro (EUR) attracts some buyers against the Greenback. However, the dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) might limit the major pair’s upside.
The ECB policymakers emphasized the need to cut interest rates multiple times this year, even though elevated US inflation delays a pivot to looser policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high. The ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that the central bank may cut its deposit rate from a record-high 4% in June, but has kept its options open for further action.
On Tuesday, the US preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 52.1. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in April from 51.9 in the previous reading, weaker than the estimation of 52.0. The Services PMI decreased to 50.9, compared to 51.7 prior, worse than the 52.0 expected. The reports indicated that business activity in the United States continued to expand in April, albeit at a softer pace than in March. The downbeat data weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and caps the upside of EUR/USD. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0702 Today Daily Change 0.0000 Today Daily Change % 0.00 Today daily open 1.0702 Trends Daily SMA20 1.0742 Daily SMA50 1.0808 Daily SMA100 1.085 Daily SMA200 1.0812 Levels Previous Daily High 1.0711 Previous Daily Low 1.0639 Previous Weekly High 1.069 Previous Weekly Low 1.0601 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0684 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0666 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0656 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0611 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0584 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0729 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0757 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0802
Overall business activity in the Eurozone expanded at its fastest pace in almost a year in April, with a robust rebound in the bloc's major service sector, according to the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey released on Tuesday. The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite improved to 51.4 in April from March’s reading of 50.3, better than the estimation of 50.8. The reading registered the highest level in nine months.
Meanwhile, the bloc’s Services PMI hit a fresh eleven-month high, rising to 52.9 in April from 51.5 in March, beating market expectations of 51.8. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.6 in April, compared to the 46.1 reading in March, weaker than the 46.5 expected. In response to the data, the Euro (EUR) attracts some buyers against the Greenback. However, the dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) might limit the major pair’s upside.
The ECB policymakers emphasized the need to cut interest rates multiple times this year, even though elevated US inflation delays a pivot to looser policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high. The ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that the central bank may cut its deposit rate from a record-high 4% in June, but has kept its options open for further action.
On Tuesday, the US preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 52.1. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in April from 51.9 in the previous reading, weaker than the estimation of 52.0. The Services PMI decreased to 50.9, compared to 51.7 prior, worse than the 52.0 expected. The reports indicated that business activity in the United States continued to expand in April, albeit at a softer pace than in March. The downbeat data weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and caps the upside of EUR/USD. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0702 Today Daily Change 0.0000 Today Daily Change % 0.00 Today daily open 1.0702 Trends Daily SMA20 1.0742 Daily SMA50 1.0808 Daily SMA100 1.085 Daily SMA200 1.0812 Levels Previous Daily High 1.0711 Previous Daily Low 1.0639 Previous Weekly High 1.069 Previous Weekly Low 1.0601 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0684 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0666 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0656 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0611 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0584 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0729 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0757 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0802
02:50 Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY): 2.3% (March) vs 2.1%
Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY): 2.3% (March) vs 2.1%
02:14 GBP/USD posts modest gains above 1.2450, BoE policymaker dampens hopes of summer rates cut
The GBP/USD pair recovers to 1.2450 on Wednesday during the early Asian session.
GBP/USD trades on a stronger note near 1.2450 amid softer USD on Wednesday. US flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI came in weaker than expectations in April. BoE’s Pill said inflation must be squeezed out of the UK economy and cautioned against cutting too soon.The GBP/USD pair recovers to 1.2450 on Wednesday during the early Asian session. The downbeat US April PMI data and increasing appetite for the risk-linked space exert some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD). Later in the day, the US Durable Goods Orders and weekly Mortgage Applications will be released.
Business activity in the United States slowed in April to a four-month low owing to lower demand, according to the S&P Global report on Tuesday. The flash Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than the expectation, dropping to 49.9 in April from 51.9 in the previous reading. Meanwhile, the Services PMI declined to 50.9 from 51.7, below the market consensus of 52.0. Finally, the Composite PMI, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 50.9 in April from 52.1 in March. The Greenback has attracted some sellers in response to the US economic data.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials look for signs that the economy is ebbing enough to bring inflation down further, even though the data in recent weeks showed hotter-than-expected inflation and employment readings. The US central bank will schedule the monetary policy meeting next week, and markets expect the Fed to leave its policy rate unchanged in the current 5.25%–5.50% range. Several Fed policymakers signaled at least one rate cut this year and indicated that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer. This, in turn, continues to lift the USD and cap the upside of GBP/USD.
On the other hand, the speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in summer declined as the UK chief economist reiterated the need for “restrictive” monetary policy. On Tuesday, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said that easing in headline inflation was not enough of a reason to ease policy, adding that there were greater risks from cutting the rates too quickly, rather than too late. These comments provide some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the USD. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.245 Today Daily Change 0.0100 Today Daily Change % 0.81 Today daily open 1.235 Trends Daily SMA20 1.2547 Daily SMA50 1.2632 Daily SMA100 1.2654 Daily SMA200 1.2566 Levels Previous Daily High 1.2392 Previous Daily Low 1.23 Previous Weekly High 1.2499 Previous Weekly Low 1.2367 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2335 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2357 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2302 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2255 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.221 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2395 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.244 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2488
Business activity in the United States slowed in April to a four-month low owing to lower demand, according to the S&P Global report on Tuesday. The flash Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than the expectation, dropping to 49.9 in April from 51.9 in the previous reading. Meanwhile, the Services PMI declined to 50.9 from 51.7, below the market consensus of 52.0. Finally, the Composite PMI, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 50.9 in April from 52.1 in March. The Greenback has attracted some sellers in response to the US economic data.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials look for signs that the economy is ebbing enough to bring inflation down further, even though the data in recent weeks showed hotter-than-expected inflation and employment readings. The US central bank will schedule the monetary policy meeting next week, and markets expect the Fed to leave its policy rate unchanged in the current 5.25%–5.50% range. Several Fed policymakers signaled at least one rate cut this year and indicated that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer. This, in turn, continues to lift the USD and cap the upside of GBP/USD.
On the other hand, the speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in summer declined as the UK chief economist reiterated the need for “restrictive” monetary policy. On Tuesday, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said that easing in headline inflation was not enough of a reason to ease policy, adding that there were greater risks from cutting the rates too quickly, rather than too late. These comments provide some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the USD. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.245 Today Daily Change 0.0100 Today Daily Change % 0.81 Today daily open 1.235 Trends Daily SMA20 1.2547 Daily SMA50 1.2632 Daily SMA100 1.2654 Daily SMA200 1.2566 Levels Previous Daily High 1.2392 Previous Daily Low 1.23 Previous Weekly High 1.2499 Previous Weekly Low 1.2367 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2335 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2357 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2302 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2255 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.221 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2395 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.244 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2488
01:54 New Zealand's annualized Trade Balance declines $-9.87 billion after a rise in MoM Exports
New Zealand's Trade Balance in NZD terms fell $-9.87 billion through the year ended in March, slightly less than the previous YoY period, which declined $-12.06 billion, a slight downside revision from the initial print of $-11.99 billion.
New Zealand's Trade Balance in NZD terms fell $-9.87 billion through the year ended in March, slightly less than the previous YoY period, which declined $-12.06 billion, a slight downside revision from the initial print of $-11.99 billion.
New Zealand's Exports rose to a 10-month high of 6.5 billion in March, lifting from the previous month's $5.79 billion (revised slightly from $5.89 billion).
New Zealand's Imports in March fell slightly, printing at $5.91 billion versus February's $6.1 billion, which was also revised slightly from $6.11 billion.
Market reaction
Reaction to New Zealand Trade Balance figures is muted as markets gear up for the early Wednesday market section in the Pacific. The NZD/USD is trading tightly near 0.5935.
About New Zealand's Trade Balance
Trade balance, released by Statistics New Zealand, is the difference between the value of country's exports and imports, over a period of year. A positive balance means that exports exceed imports, a negative ones means the opposite. Positive trade balance illustrates high competitiveness of country's economy.
01:46 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) rose from previous $-11.99B to $-9.87B in March
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) rose from previous $-11.99B to $-9.87B in March
01:46 New Zealand Imports dipped from previous $6.11B to $5.91B in March
New Zealand Imports dipped from previous $6.11B to $5.91B in March
01:45 New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $5.89B to $6.5B in March
New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $5.89B to $6.5B in March
01:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) increased to $588M in March from previous $-218M
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) increased to $588M in March from previous $-218M
01:33 AUD/USD rises to two-day high ahead of Aussie CPI
The Aussie Dollar recorded back-to-back positive days against the US Dollar and climbed more than 0.59% on Tuesday, as the US April S&P PMIs were weaker than expected.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}AUD/USD extends gains, influenced by disappointing S&P Global PMIs from the US, suggesting possible Fed easing.US Dollar weakens as Treasury yields fall and equity markets respond positively to the potential shift in Fed policy.Upcoming Australian CPI data could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy stance.The Aussie Dollar recorded back-to-back positive days against the US Dollar and climbed more than 0.59% on Tuesday, as the US April S&P PMIs were weaker than expected. That spurred speculations that the Federal Reserve could put rate cuts back on the table, following last week's hawkish rhetoric. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6488, up by 0.01% as Wednesday’s Asian session begins.
Aussie Dollar capitalizes softer US PMIs amid increasing Fed rate cut hopes
S&P Global revealed that manufacturing activity in the US contracted slightly to 49.9, down from 51.9 in March. The Services and Composite PMIs cling to expansionary territory, but both fell from 51.7 to 50.9 and from 52.1 to 50.9.
Following the data, US equities rose, US Treasury yields fell, and the Greenback posted losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against the six other currencies, dropped 0.44% and stayed at 105.68.
The AUD/USD rose from daily lows around 0.6440s toward the day’s high at 0.6490.
Other data shows that New Home Sales surged to a six-month high, indicating robust demand in the housing market. However, Building Permits continued to show contraction, albeit with a slight improvement, as the initial decline of -4.3% was revised to -3.7%.
On the Aussie’s front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first quarter is expected to edge lower, from 4.1% to 3.4% YoY. On a quarterly basis, it is expected to tick higher from 0.6% to 0.8%, while monthly figures are foreseen to remain unchanged at 3.4%.
ANZ analysts commented that the Reserve Bank of Australia wouldn’t likely change their stance, noting, “Looking ahead to the next RBA Board decision on 7 May, we don’t think slightly higher inflation than the RBA is expecting will prompt a shift back to an overt tightening bias.”
Related newsAustralia CPI Preview: Inflation set to remain above target as hopes of early interest-rate cuts fadeAUD/USD Forecast: Further up comes the 200-day SMAAUD/USD Price Analysis: Despite signs this is probably not a bullish reversalAUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD turned bullish in the short term, following the formation of a ‘morning star’ chart pattern, but downside risks look. Buyers need to clear the 0.6500 hurdle and surpass the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) at 0.6527/32, which formed a ‘death cross.’ If cleared, that would extend the rally to 0.6600. On the other hand, a reversal and a daily close below 0.6440, could pave the way to re-test year-to-date (YTD) lows of 0.6362.AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6488 Today Daily Change 0.0039 Today Daily Change % 0.60 Today daily open 0.6449
Trends Daily SMA20 0.6508 Daily SMA50 0.6533 Daily SMA100 0.659 Daily SMA200 0.6532
Levels Previous Daily High 0.6455 Previous Daily Low 0.6414 Previous Weekly High 0.6493 Previous Weekly Low 0.6362 Previous Monthly High 0.6667 Previous Monthly Low 0.6478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.644 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.643 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6424 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6399 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6383 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6465 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6481 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6506
01:30 Australia CPI Preview: Inflation set to remain above target as hopes of early interest-rate cuts fade
An Australian inflation update takes the spotlight this week ahead of critical United States (US) macroeconomic data.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index is foreseen steady at 3.4% YoY in March.Quarterly CPI inflation is expected to have ticked higher in the first quarter of the year.The Reserve Bank of Australia is confident the economy would dodge a hard landing.The Australian Dollar is correcting higher, but is still under bears’ control. An Australian inflation update takes the spotlight this week ahead of critical United States (US) macroeconomic data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release two different inflation gauges on Wednesday. The ABS will release the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first quarter of 2024 and the March Monthly CPI, an annual figure that compares price pressures over the previous twelve months. Also, the quarterly report includes the Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) favorite inflation gauge.
The RBA met on March 18-19 and decided to keep the Cash Rate steady at 4.35%. In the accompanying statement, the Board scrapped references to possible rate hikes, triggering an Australian Dollar (AUD) sell-off. The central bank will meet again on May 6-7, and CPI figures will definitely guide such a decision.
What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate numbers?
The ABS is expected to report that the Monthly CPI rose by 3.4% in the year to March, matching the previous annual figure reported in February. The quarterly CPI is foreseen rising 0.8% QoQ and up 3.4% YoY in the three months to March. Finally, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, the central bank’s preferred gauge, is expected to rise by 3.8% YoY in March against the previous reading of 4.2%.
Market players built confidence in easing price pressures but have learned the lesson: rate cuts are not a priority for policymakers. Moreover, considering authorities from most major economies, Australia included, believe they can dodge a hard landing. However, officials involved in setting the monetary policy are more worried about trimming interest rates too early than about the impact of tight monetary conditions on the economy. An exception to this rule could be the Eurozone and the European Central Bank (ECB), but that’s a story for another moment.
Back to Australian inflation, the anticipated figures would support the RBA’s decision to hold rates and slowly pave the way for a shift in monetary policy. In the Statement on Monetary Policy released after the March meeting, policymakers stated: “Inflation is falling but is still high. It is important to bring inflation down because high inflation hurts all Australians. The Board’s interest rate decision supports the gradual return of inflation to the midpoint of our 2–3 per cent target range.”
Additionally, inflation is expected to decline to 3.2% in 2024 and continue dropping towards 2.6% by mid-2026, finally reaching the central bank’s target band of 2% to 3%. Policymakers also anticipate wage growth will peak at 4.1% in mid-2024 before gradually declining to 3.2% in June 2026. Finally, economic growth is foreseen to fall from 1.5% to 1.3% in June 2024 before gradually improving towards 2.3% by the end of 2025.
How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?
As usual, CPI readings will have a significant impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the figures will guide the RBA's upcoming monetary policy meetings. The figures would be interpreted as how they could affect the Board's decisions. With that in mind, a higher-than-anticipated outcome would force the central bank to keep interest rates at current levels for longer. Market players do not expect higher rates, but policymakers may try to cool down expectations of soon-to-come rate cuts. Generally speaking, higher interest rates tend to provide support to the local currency. On the contrary, below-expected figures could boost rate-cut expectations, undermining demand for the Aussie.
From a wider perspective, easing inflationary pressures should be understood as better odds for economic progress and benefit the AUD in the long run.
Ahead of the CPI release, AUD/USD trades around 0.6450, recovering from 0.6360, the year-to-date low set this April. The US Dollar (USD) has soared on the back of risk aversion triggered by Middle East woes and decreasing odds for a US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut in June. The Greenback shed some ground at the start of the week, but its undeniable strength prevails.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, says: “The AUD/USD pair offers a limited bullish potential, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The latest recovery seems corrective, given that the pair is losing upward momentum well below bearish moving averages. Furthermore, technical indicators are developing below their midlines with neutral-to-bearish slopes, suggesting AUD/USD may soon resume its slide.”
Bednarik adds: “The pair is currently battling a relevant resistance area, followed by a stronger one at around the 0.6500 threshold. An advance towards the latter won’t affect the dominant bearish case but, on the contrary, provide sellers with fresh opportunities. Near-term support levels come at 0.6400 and 0.6360, while a break below the latter exposes the 0.6320 price zone.”
Inflation FAQs What is inflation?
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange?
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold?
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Economic Indicator
Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 24, 2024 01:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 3.4%Previous: 3.4%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
00:47 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Slight bullish momentum noted, long-term bearish bias intact
The NZD/USD trades rose to 0.5930 in Tuesday’s session, marking a slight increase with gains of 0.17%.
The RSI of the NZD/USD on the daily chart shows a slight recovery from the buyers.The hourly chart presents a more positive picture, with RSI remaining above 50, signaling increasing buying momentum.The NZD/USD trades rose to 0.5930 in Tuesday’s session, marking a slight increase with gains of 0.17%. The currency pair continues to be guided by a long-term bearish trend. However, there is an attempt to challenge this bearish supremacy by buyers, albeit modest, and hourly indicators suggest that the momentum picked up is still weak.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a slight recovery showing a reading of 43, still within the negative territory, but suggesting a recent shift in bias among traders from negative to possibly a more positive trend. The decreasing red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also support a weakening of the selling traction and a possible shift.
NZD/USD daily chart
The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a more upbeat picture, remaining above the 50 level, with a recent peak close to the 70 level. The latest reading stands at 57.75, providing a boost in momentum. Concurrently, the hourly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) registers decreasing green bars, indicating weak buying traction.
NZD/USD hourly chart
In terms of the broader outlook, the NZD/USD resides in a definitive bearish stance as its latest position stays below the key Simple Moving Averages (SMA), of 20, 100, and 200-days SMA. This positioning suggests that the overall trend leans heavily towards the downside. In addition, positive signals were detected on the hourly and daily chart but those signals were not decisive buying signals as the buying momentum remains weak. Buyers must increase their efforts and reclaim the 20-day SMA to start talking.
NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5933 Today Daily Change 0.0014 Today Daily Change % 0.24 Today daily open 0.5919
Trends Daily SMA20 0.5968 Daily SMA50 0.6058 Daily SMA100 0.6121 Daily SMA200 0.6053
Levels Previous Daily High 0.593 Previous Daily Low 0.5886 Previous Weekly High 0.5954 Previous Weekly Low 0.5851 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5913 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5903 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5894 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5868 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.585 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5938 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5956 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.5982
00:27 WTI back over $83 as Crude Oil sees additional volatility
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil started Tuesday on the low side, falling below $81.00 per barrel before a broad-market recovery in risk appetite dragged barrel bids into a fresh high above $83.00.
Crude Oil gets pulled in both directions on Tuesday.A misfire in US PMIs spark fresh rate cut hopes.Risk assets get pumped higher as markets celebrate softening US economy.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil started Tuesday on the low side, falling below $81.00 per barrel before a broad-market recovery in risk appetite dragged barrel bids into a fresh high above $83.00. US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures printed much softer than expected, sparking renewed hopes of a weakening US economy forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin cutting rates sooner than previously expected.
Crude Oil markets remain exposed to downside moves as recent geopolitical tensions ease after Iran announced it would not seek further retaliation against Israel. WTI’s recent climb sparked by ongoing fears of a Middle East conflict spilling over into an all-out war faltered near $87.00 per barrel as cooler heads prevail.
US data is set to continue driving financial markets through the rest of the trading week. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are slated for Thursday, where investors are expecting, or hoping, for US GDP for the annualized first quarter to ease to 2.5% from the previous 3.4%. On Friday, US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation data will be released, which is forecast to hold steady at 0.3% MoM.
WTI technical outlook
WTI crossed $83.00 per barrel after recovering from Tuesday’s bottom bids just below $81.00. The day’s late-stage rally brought US Crude Oil prices just above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Despite Tuesday’s late rally, US Crude Oil remains knocked off of recent gains, with WTI down around 4.5% from April’s swing highs near $87.00 per barrel. On the low side, long-term technical support sits at the 200-day EMA, holding near $79.23.
WTI hourly chart
WTI daily chart
00:25 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -3.23M below forecasts (1.8M) in April 19
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -3.23M below forecasts (1.8M) in April 19
00:00 South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index: 100.7 (April)
South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index: 100.7 (April)
