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Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

United Kingdom PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a below forecasts (0.1%) in October: Actual (-0.1%)

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0%) in October

United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.5%) in September: Actual (1.3%)

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a below forecasts (-4.9%) in October: Actual (-5.1%)

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a below forecasts (-1.2%) in October: Actual (-1.3%)

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a registered at 0.8%, below expectations (0.9%) in October

United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in October: Actual (-0.2%)

United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in October: Actual (1.5%)

United Kingdom PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a came in at 1.3% below forecasts (1.5%) in October

United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.2%) in October: Actual (2.1%)

United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.7%) in October

United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.2%, below expectations (-0.1%) in October

In opinion of FX Stragists at UOB Group, Cable’s downside looks mitigated and it should trade within a sideline theme instead in the next weeks. Key Q

In opinion of FX Stragists at UOB Group, Cable’s downside looks mitigated and it should trade within a sideline theme instead in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for GBP to “test 1.2900” did not materialize as it traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.2816 and 1.2873. Momentum indicators are mostly ‘neutral’ now and GBP is likely to continue to trade sideways, expected to be between 1.2820 and 1.2880”. Next 1-3 weeks: “GBP traded in a relatively quiet manner as it traded within a 1.2816/1.2873 range. The price action is in line with our view from yesterday (12 Nov, spot at 1.2855) wherein GBP “is deemed to have move back into a sideway-trading phase”. In other words, we continue to expect GBP to trade sideways between 1.2770 and 1.2930 for a period”.

Today leading into the CPI data cable has taken a dip lower. The reading is projected to be slightly higher than lasts months reading but we have seen

Cable trades 0.09% lower on the session heading into the CPI reading.CPI year on year is expected to come in 0.1% lower than last months 1.7%.GBP/USD 4-hour Chart Today leading into the CPI data cable has taken a dip lower. The reading is projected to be slightly higher than lasts months reading but we have seen some GBP strength since September. In October GBP/USD moved 6.71% higher from the low to the high and EUR/GBP lost 4.88% of its value. This should push inflation lower due to the purchasing power of GBP. Having said that there are some one-off price increases in certain items (like oil). Looking at the 4-hour chart below, you can see the small triangle-shaped formation has broken to the downside.  The main consolidation low support stands at 1.2769 and if this gets taken out the next significant support zone is at 1.2535.  Later in the session, we are also due to hear from Fed Chair Powell and have the US CPI reading, so we could expect to see more volatility. Additional Levels  

The greenback buying interest picked up some additional pace in the last hour and lifted the USD/CAD pair back above mid-1.3200s, or fresh one-month t

The USD stood tall near multi-week tops and helped regain traction.Sliding oil prices undermined the Loonie and remained supportive.Traders now eye US CPI, Powell’s testimony for a fresh impetus.The greenback buying interest picked up some additional pace in the last hour and lifted the USD/CAD pair back above mid-1.3200s, or fresh one-month tops.
 
Following the previous session's intraday pullback, the pair managed to catch some fresh bids on Tuesday and built on its recent bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session – also marking its seventh day of a positive move in the previous eight. Stronger USD, weaker oil remain supportive As investors waited for fresh trade updates, the US Dollar stood tall near multi-week tops amid a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher through the early European session on Tuesday.
 
This coupled with a weaker tone around crude oil prices, now down around 0.75% for the day, further undermined demand for commodity-linked currency – Loonie and remained supportive of the pair's move up to the highest level since October 11.
 
Oil prices on Wednesday were weighed down by fading optimism over a partial US-China trade deal, especially after the US President Donald Trump's overnight comments that the US will increase tariffs on China if the first step of a broader agreement isn’t reached.
 
It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the positive momentum or faces some resistance near the very important 200-day SMA as the focus now shifts to Wednesday's important release of the latest US consumer inflation figures for October.
 
This will be followed by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help investors to determine the pair's next leg of a directional move. Technical levels to watch  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD remains under pressure but a breach of the 1.0970 level looks unlikely in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD remains under pressure but a breach of the 1.0970 level looks unlikely in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Instead of “trading sideways”, EUR drifted lower and tested the strong 1.1000 support (low of 1.1001). Despite making fresh low, the decline lacks momentum and the risk of a sustained drop below 1.1000 is not high. That said, EUR could try to move below 1.1000 again but for today, the next support at 1.0970 is not expected to come into the picture. On the upside, only a move above 1.1045 would indicate the current mild downward pressure has eased (minor resistance is at 1.1030)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “One week ago (06 Nov, spot 1.1075), we highlighted that EUR “is likely in a corrective pull-back towards 1.1000”. Since then, EUR has declined and came within 1 pip of 1.1000 yesterday (12 Nov) as it touched 1.1001. Despite making fresh low, downward momentum has not improved by much. However, further EUR weakness is not ruled out but as highlighted on Monday (11 Nov, spot at 1.1020), there is “another strong support at 1.0970 and only a clear break of this level would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.0930”. In view of the lackluster momentum, the prospect for a sustained decline below 1.0970 is not high. That said, the current downward pressure is deemed as intact unless EUR can move above 1.1065 (‘strong resistance’ level was previously at 1.1090)”.

The selling bias around the European currency stays well and sound so far this week, with EUR/USD now putting the key support at 1.10 the figure to th

EUR/USD accelerates the downside to 1.1000.Stronger greenback weighs on the pair.EMU Industrial Production, US CPI, Powell next on tap.The selling bias around the European currency stays well and sound so far this week, with EUR/USD now putting the key support at 1.10 the figure to the test. EUR/USD looks to data, Powell The pair remains well on the defensive in the area of 4-week lows in the 1.10 neighbourhood, always on the back of the persistent up move in the greenback and relentless optimism on the US-China trade front. Regarding the latter, President Trump said at his speech on Tuesday that a trade deal with China is close, although he failed to shed more light in key issues like the roll over part of the ongoing tariffs and his meeting with Xi Jinping. Later in the session, Industrial Production figures in the broad euro area will be in the limelight. Across the pond, the attention is expected to shift to key inflation figures during last month as well as the testimony by Fed’s Powell before the Congress. What to look for around EUR The selling mood in the euro has intensified and dragged spot to fresh 4-week lows in the 1.1000 region. As usual, the firm note in the greenback and developments from the US-China trade scenario are expected to dictate the mood around the pair for the time being. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In addition, the possibility that the German economy could slip into recession in Q3 remains a palpable risk for the outlook and is expected to weigh further on EUR in the short/medium term horizon. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.03% at 1.1005 and a break below 1.0999 (monthly low Nov.13) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1). On the upside, the next hurdle lines up at 1.1036 (55-day SMA) followed by 1.1102 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21).

Daniel Been, analyst at ANZ, suggests that further AUD weakness is increasingly contingent on the RBA easing policy in 2020. Key Quotes “While a trade

Daniel Been, analyst at ANZ, suggests that further AUD weakness is increasingly contingent on the RBA easing policy in 2020. Key Quotes “While a trade resolution looks well priced into risk assets in the very short term, an impending improvement in global growth would provide a solid base for risk as we move into the first quarter.” “If the RBA remains focussed on reducing spare capacity in the domestic economy and ease further, then the AUD will react strongly, likely testing USD0.65.”  

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October, partly aided by an increase in energy

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October, partly aided by an increase in energy prices, while core inflation should decline a tenth to 2.3% y/y. Key Quotes “In particular, we expect core goods inflation to recover m/m, but for core services inflation to slow to 0.2% m/m after four straight increases at 0.3%.” “Conversely, we expect Chair Powell to largely reiterate the FOMC policy message that monetary policy and the economy remain "in a good place" at the start of his two-day visit to the Hill on Wednesday.”

The once troy of the yellow metal is up marginally early in the European trading hours, navigating the area below $1,460 amidst a better mood in the d

Gold is up smalls in the vicinity of $1,460 region.Stronger greenback forced the metal to shed earlier gains.Focus of attention today will be on US CPI and Powell.The once troy of the yellow metal is up marginally early in the European trading hours, navigating the area below $1,460 amidst a better mood in the dollar and the generalized offered tone in the safe havens. Gold price now focuses on US data, Powell, tradeGold has faded the initial optimism somewhat on the back of the recovery in the buck, which keeps challenging monthly highs in the boundaries of 98.50 when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY). In the meantime, the upbeat sentiment among investors regarding the US-China trade scenario appears unchanged despite President Trump gave nothing new at his speech on Tuesday. He did reiterate that a trade deal look close, although he did not mention anything regarding the roll over of tariffs or the timing/venue of his meeting with China’s Xi Jinping. Later in the day, Bullion is expected to remain cautious ahead of the release of key inflation figures gauges by the CPI for the month of October ahead of J.Powell’s testimony before Congress later in the day. XAU/USD key levels As of writing Gold is gaining 0.15% at $1,458.11 and a breakout of $1,497.80 (55-day SMA) would expose $1,519.70 (monthly high Oct.3) and then $1,535.69 (high Sep.24). On the downside, the next support emerges at $1,456.08 (monthly low Nov.8) seconded by $1,449.39 (38.2% Fibo of the May-September rally) and finally $1,416.12 (50% Fibo of the May-September rally).

The NZD/USD pair held on its post-RBNZ strong gains to over one-week tops, with bulls looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 0.6400 handle.

RBNZ’s surprise decision to stand pat prompted some aggressive short-covering move.The risk-off mood, US-China trade uncertainty, USD strength capped any further gains.The focus now shifts to the latest US consumer inflation figures and Powell’s testimony.The NZD/USD pair held on its post-RBNZ strong gains to over one-week tops, with bulls looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 0.6400 handle.
 
The pair caught some aggressive bids on Tuesday and finally broke out of its three-day-old consolidative trading range after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised investors by standing pat. Given that a 25bps rate cut was nearly priced in, the decision to leave rates on hold triggered a bout of short-covering around the major. Bulls take a breather after the post-RBNZ upsurge Meanwhile, the US Dollar stood tall near multi-week tops amid positive US Treasury bond yields. This coupled with a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment, amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty, turned out to be the only factors that weighed on perceived riskier currencies and capped any further gains for the Kiwi.
 
The recent optimism over the possibility of a US-China trade deal faded rather quickly after the US President Donald Trump indicated over the weekend that he would only sign if it was the “right deal” for America. Trump further added on Tuesday that the US will increase tariffs on China if the first step of a broader agreement isn’t reached.
 
It will now be interesting to see if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position or the pair meets with some fresh supply at higher levels as the focus now shifts to Wednesday's release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. This will be followed by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony and produce some meaningful trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

The US stocks benchmark closed around Monday’s levels yesterday, following a narrow trade range and with all the attention on the US-China trade front

The DowJones index closed flat near 27,700 on Tuesday.Trade hopes continue to keep sentiment buoyant.US inflation figures and Powell’s testimony will be key today.The US stocks benchmark closed around Monday’s levels yesterday, following a narrow trade range and with all the attention on the US-China trade front. Dow Jones now looks to data and Powell In this regard, the speech by President Trump failed to ignite fresh hopes as he declined to mention anything related to the probable roll over of some existing tariffs, while the time and venue of his meeting with China’s Xi Jinping still remains unknown. Trump reiterated, however, that a trade deal remains close. Later today, investors will scrutinize Fed’s Powell’s testimony before the US Congress, while inflation figures tracked by the CPI for the month of October will also be in the limelight. Furthermore, today’s Dow futures point to a somewhat soft start of the US session and are currently trading just above the 27,600 region. In the meantime, DowJones faces the next interim resistance at 27,774.7 (all-time high Nov.7) while on the downside the next interim support emerges at the 10-day SMA at 27,476.7 seconded by July’s high at 27,398.7 and then the September peak at 27,306.7.

Sweden Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1.6%) in October

Sweden Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0%) in October

Gold edged higher through the early European session on Wednesday and built on the previous session's late rebound from three-month lows. A fresh wave

Persistent US-China uncertainty helped gain some traction on Wednesday.Positive US bond yields, USD strength might keep a lid on any strong gains.Wednesday’s key focus will be on the US CPI print and Powell’s testimony.Gold edged higher through the early European session on Wednesday and built on the previous session's late rebound from three-month lows.
 
A fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade, amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty, underpinned demand for traditional safe-haven assets and was seen as one of the key factors benefitting the precious metal. Trade uncertainty remains supportive The recent optimism over the possibility of a US-China trade deal faded rather quickly after the US President Donald Trump indicated over the weekend that he would only sign if it was the “right deal” for America.
 
Trump on Tuesday further added that the US will increase tariffs on China if the first step of a broader agreement isn’t reached and weighed on investors' sentiment, which was evident from a negative mood around equities.
 
However, a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields extended some support to the US Dollar and might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the dollar-denominated commodity, at least for the time being.
 
Meanwhile, investors might also refrain from placing any aggressive bets, rather prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the commodity might have bottomed out in the near-term and positioning for any further appreciating move towards the $1475 region. Technical levels to watch  

Today, we have an all-important release of US CPI for the month of October, which is likely to attract most attention. Here are the expectations of an

Today, we have an all-important release of US CPI for the month of October, which is likely to attract most attention. Here are the expectations of analysts and economists from major banks regarding the upcoming release.TD Securities“We look for headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October (0.3% m/m), partly aided by an increase in energy prices. Core inflation should decline a tenth to 2.3% y/y, reflecting a 0.2% m/m advance.” “We expect core goods inflation to recover m/m, but for core services inflation to slow modestly after four straight increases at 0.3%.”Wells FargoAnalyst at Wells Fargo expects the US CPI to show an increase of 0.3% in October, in line with market consensus.  “Below-target inflation has been a key reason for the Fed’s monetary policy bias toward easing. After all, the PCE deflator has run below the FOMC’s 2% target for all but 11 months of the 10+ year expansion, while inflation expectations are at the low end of historical ranges. Concerns about inflation, therefore, remain skewed toward it running too cool, not too hot. Even as the trend in inflation has firmed in recent months, it remains sufficiently tame for the Fed. The core CPI is up 2.4% over the past year, and tends to run 0.2-0.3 points higher than the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.” “We suspect prices excluding food and energy were up 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in October. Inflation should continue to firm, but not break meaningfully above the Fed’s 2% target. In the absence of significant price pressure, the Fed will likely keep rates steady in the near-term.”Danske Bank“US CPI core has surprised on the upside in recent months, but we do not expect this to be the beginning of a new trend given the low inflation expectations and look for an unchanged inflation rate at 2.4%.”

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, Powell’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress at 4pm GMT will garner some attention today

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, Powell’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress at 4pm GMT will garner some attention today. Key Quotes “It would be a surprise if Powell deviates much from his post-FOMC press conference in which he emphasised that the easing done to date has supported the economy and helped offset some of the external risks stemming from slowing growth.” “Our US economists do, however, expect the Chair to stress that, given that the balance of the incoming economic data has largely held in, it would take a “material reassessment” of the outlook for the Committee to consider further rate cuts. The House Intelligence Committee will also hold its first public hearings in their impeachment inquiry of President Trump.”

The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip to weekly lows, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum further beyond the 109.00 round-figu

Positive US bond yields underpinned the USD and helped gain some traction.The upside is likely to remain limited amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty.Wednesday’s US CPI print and Powell’s testimony will be eyed for a fresh impetus.The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip to weekly lows, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum further beyond the 109.00 round-figure mark.
 
The pair on Tuesday failed to capitalize on its early uptick to the 109.30 region and finally ended lower for the third consecutive session amid fading optimism over the possibility of a US-China trade deal, which underpinned the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand. Focus on trade, US CPI, Powell’s testimony The US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US will increase tariffs on China in case the first step of a broader agreement isn’t reached. This comes on the back of Trump's indication over the weekend he would only sign if it was the “right deal” for America.
 
The comments weighed on investors' sentiment, which was evident from the prevalent risk-off mood around equity markets. However, a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields extended some support to the US Dollar and helped the pair to bounce off daily lows.
 
As investors await any further trade developments, the upside is likely to remain limited as market participants now look forward to the latest US consumer inflation figures and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before determining the pair's next leg of a directional move. Technical levels to watch  

Danske Bank analysts point out that in the US and the UK, CPI figures for October are due out and will be key economic release for the markets. Key Qu

Danske Bank analysts point out that in the US and the UK, CPI figures for October are due out and will be key economic release for the markets. Key Quotes “US CPI core has surprised on the upside in recent months, but we do not expect this to be the beginning of a new trend given the low inflation expectations and look for an unchanged inflation rate at 2.4%.” “In the euro area, markets will look out for a decision by US President Trump on whether or not he will impose European car tariffs. Latest hints from US Commerce Secretary Ross and EU Commission President Juncker suggested that Trump will postpone his decision yet again into next year, after 'good conversations' with car manufacturers about potential production relocations. Should the tariffs be implemented, it would be a major hit for the already fragile European manufacturing sector. Figures out today will likely confirm that the industrial recession has extended into Q3, although it seems to have stopped intensifying.” “Fed chair Powell will address the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today. We expect him to reiterate that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate in the absence of further deterioration in the data.” “Overnight the Japanese Q3 GDP figures will be released, which should show solid growth of 0.5% q/q, as PMIs have held up.” “Inflation figures are also in focus again in Sweden today. We expect a slight increase in CPIF in October.”

EUR/USD is moving ever so slowly to the downside and this may be frustrating many traders, but can be explained by the density of technical levels. Ho

EUR/USD is moving ever so slowly to the downside and this may be frustrating many traders, but can be explained by the density of technical levels. However, the currency pair is leaning lower and may lose support. The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that euro/dollar is mired in a dense cluster of lines extending from 1.1006 to 1.1018 and also a tad higher. The area that limits price action includes the Simple Moving Average 10-1h, the Bollinger Band 15min-Middle, the SMA 5-15m, the SMA 5-1h, the BB 1h-Middle, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the previous daily low, the BB 1h-Lower, the BB one-day Lower, and many more. Lower, support awaits at 1.0960, which is the convergence of the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and the PP one-day S3.  Further down, the downside target is 1.0879, which is the one-month low.  Looking up, fierce resistance awaits at 1.1075, where the PP one-day R3 and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month among others.  Higher, 1.1109 is the confluence of the SMA 100 one-day and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month. Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

The AUD/USD pair staged a modest rebound from over two-week lows, albeit seemed struggling to extend the momentum further beyond mid-0.6800s. The pair

Slightly better Aussie data helped gain some positive traction.The risk-off mood/US-China trade uncertainty capping gains.The US CPI and Powell’s testimony eyed for a fresh impetus.The AUD/USD pair staged a modest rebound from over two-week lows, albeit seemed struggling to extend the momentum further beyond mid-0.6800s.
 
The pair stalled its recent pullback and managed to find some support near the 0.6830 in reaction to a strong rebound in the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to +4.5% in November as compared to -5.5% recorded in the previous month. Upside remains limited Upbeat consumer data helped offset a slight disappointment from Australia’s third-quarter (Q3) Wage Price Index, which slipped to 2.2% YoY rate from 2.3% previous. On a quarterly basis, the index matched consensus estimates and held steady at 0.5%.
 
The uptick, however, lacked any strong bullish conviction amid the prevalent risk-off mood. This coupled with renewed US-China trade uncertainty further collaborate towards capping any runaway rally for the China-proxy Australian Dollar.
 
It is worth recalling that the US President Donald Trump indicated over the weekend that he would only sign if it was the “right deal” for America. Trump on Tuesday further added that the US will increase tariffs on China if the first step of a broader agreement isn’t reached.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the pair recent pullback from the 0.6930 supply zone is over and positioning for any further near-term appreciating move ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures.
 
Apart from the US CPI print, Wednesday's key focus will be on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, which might play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the pair's next leg of a directional move. Technical levels to watch  

E.Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group, reviewed the recent figures of domestic and foreign direct investment in Indonesia. Key Quotes “Investment real

E.Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group, reviewed the recent figures of domestic and foreign direct investment in Indonesia. Key Quotes “Investment realization of Domestic Direct Investment (DDI) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) accelerated in 3Q19, growing by 18.4% y/y (an equivalent of IDR 205.7tn) as compared to last quarter growth of 13.7% y/y (IDR 200.5tn). This performance reflects confidence among investors in the Indonesian economy following the election victory of the incumbent President Joko Widodo”. “Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board - BKPM - said that it is possible for 2019 national investment realization target to be achieved by the fourth quarter as political conditions are showing positive signal due to the peaceful conduct of the April 2019 General Election. BKPM noted that there is a growth in investment realization outside Java from IDR 75.8tn in 3Q18 to IDR 93.6tn in 3Q19. This increasing growth of investment outside Java reflects the government intention in achieving a balanced growth for development in the region of Indonesia”. “Going forward, we are cautiously optimistic that Indonesia will be able to attract much-needed longer-term investment into the country, given the recent positive developments in maintaining low and stable inflation, and growing FX reserves”.

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in October

Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1.1%) in October

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (0.9%) in October

Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in October

According to analysts at Standard Chartered, China’s M1 growth is an effective leading indicator of the underlying growth momentum and outlook for rea

According to analysts at Standard Chartered, China’s M1 growth is an effective leading indicator of the underlying growth momentum and outlook for real activity. Key Quotes “While M1 growth was closely correlated with housing sales revenue and loan growth before 2012 amid the typical property- and credit-driven economic cycles, our model shows that housing sales and off-balance-sheet lending have also had an evident impact on M1 growth in recent years, with local-government financing vehicles (LGFV) bond financing playing a role.” “China’s crackdown on shadow banking and local government debt has sharply slowed M1 growth – to a record low of 0.4% in January 2019 from a high of 25.4% y/y in July 2016. However, as growth headwinds have intensified in 2019, the authorities have boosted counter-cyclical measures, resulting in a soft recovery in M1 growth in Q2-Q3 2019 from hitting a trough in Q1.” “We estimate that M1 growth will increase modestly to mid-single digits in 2020 as the contraction in off-balance-sheet lending eases and local government bond financing improves. However, we do not expect a strong rebound, given the authorities’ determination to control leverage and contain the housing market.” “M1 growth also has a 3-6 month leading effect on corporate credit demand and a 9-12 month leading effect on PPI and inventory growth. As such, the recent M1 growth trend will support a stabilisation in real activity in 2020, along with a mild pick-up in PPI and a soft start to restocking in H1-2020, in our view.”

The cost of living in the UK as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) for October is due later on Wednesday at 0930 GMT. The headline CPI infl

The UK CPIs Overview The cost of living in the UK as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) for October is due later on Wednesday at 0930 GMT. The headline CPI inflation is expected to arrive at -0.1% inter-month in October while the annualized figure is seen a touch lower at 1.6%. The core inflation rate that excludes volatile food and energy items is likely to have steadied at 1.7% YoY last month. Deviation impact on GBP/USD Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 15 and 80 pips in deviations up to 2 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 120 pips. How could it affect GBP/USD? At the press time, GBP/USD is seen wavering in the familiar range around the midpoint of the 1.28 handle, struggling for a sustained upmove amid mixed UK jobs data and narrowing gap between the Tories and Labour in the race to the December poll. A bigger-than-expected decrease in the UK price pressures could refuel the declines in the pound back towards the 1.28 handle vs. the greenback. “The resistance-turned-support, currently near the 1.2800 handle, should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Failure to defend the said support might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide back towards testing the 1.2715-10 region with some intermediate support near the 1.2770-65 region. On the flip side, bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.2900 handle before positioning for a further near-term appreciating move towards 1.2965-70 intermediate resistance. The momentum could further get extended and assist the pair to aim back towards reclaiming the key 1.30 psychological mark,” FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes. Key Notes GBP Futures: remains sidelined near term UK inflation report outlook: GBP/USD may stumble on another CPI slide Hard Brexit fears ease as UK PM Johnson’s hopes rise – Reuters poll About the UK CPIs The Consumer Price Index released by the Office for National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s CPI to slip from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (market 1.6%), in line with the BoE's for

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s CPI to slip from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (market 1.6%), in line with the BoE's forecast from the November MPR. Key Quotes “The entire deceleration in inflation is due to energy prices; household energy prices will be affected by the OFGEM cap, while fuel prices are also likely to decline a bit on a y/y basis. Stripping out the volatility, we're looking for core CPI to hold steady at 1.7% y/y (mkt 1.7%).”

According to the economists surveyed by Reuters lately, the odds chances of a no-deal Brexit haven fallen on increased expectations of a UK PM Johnson

According to the economists surveyed by Reuters lately, the odds chances of a no-deal Brexit haven fallen on increased expectations of a UK PM Johnson’s Dec. 12 election win. The election victory is likely to allow Johnson to secure the backing in parliament, which is required to get his new Withdrawal Agreement passed. Key Findings: “The median probability of a disorderly Brexit, where no deal is agreed, dropped to 20% in the Nov. 8-12 Reuters poll of economists from 30% in October, the lowest since a poll taken in May soon after the EU granted another delay to Britain’s departure. The economy will barely expand in the fourth quarter, growing just 0.2%. Growth is then forecast to accelerate to 0.3%-0.4% per quarter until the middle of 2021. In 2019, the economy will expand 1.2% but growth will slow to 1.0% next year, the wider poll of almost 70 economists found. With a no-deal Brexit less likely, the chances of a recession also fell. They were pegged at 25% for a recession in the next 12 months, down from 30% previously, and 30% for one in the next two years, reduced from 35%. According to median forecasts, the Bank Rate will sit at its current 0.75% through to the second half of 2021 when the Monetary Policy Committee will add 25 basis points. Although more than a handful of economists polled by Reuters have a cut pencilled into their forecasts.”

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest reversed two drops in a row and increased by around 1.1K contracts on Tuesday. Volu

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest reversed two drops in a row and increased by around 1.1K contracts on Tuesday. Volume, too, rose by more than 26K contracts after two consecutive drops. USD/JPY faces initial support near 108.70USD/JPY is recovering some ground following three consecutive daily pullbacks. Rising open interest and volume in the Japanese safe haven hints at the likeliness that extra downside remains in the pipeline for the pair, which should find some initial contention around the 21-day SMA near 108.70.

In light of advanced readings for GBP futures markets from CME Group, investors added around 1.9K contracts to their open interest positions on Tuesda

In light of advanced readings for GBP futures markets from CME Group, investors added around 1.9K contracts to their open interest positions on Tuesday, reaching the second build in a row. On the other hand, volume shrunk by around 6.6K contracts, prolonging the erratic performance. GBP/USD faces extra consolidation, still below 1.30Cable appears to have met strong resistance in the upper-1.2800s for the time being. Both volume and open interest lack of a clear direction, leaving the consolidative scenario unchanged at least in the near term.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 13: - Trade: Prospects for a trade deal seem dimmer after President Donald Trump was bashing Chin

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 13:
- Trade: Prospects for a trade deal seem dimmer after President Donald Trump was bashing China and threatened to slap more tariffs on the world's second-largest economy. Safe-haven currencies advanced while commodity currencies came under pressure. Trump also hinted that other countries may be punished for "mistreating" the US. European carmakers are anticipating a decision on duties, due this week.
- Fed: The focus is now shifting to the Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell will testify on Capitol Hill and given recent data, he may see the glass as half-full, but signal an ongoing pause. See Powell preview: Praising the economy and rebutting the President
- Inflation: The Fed Chair will have the opportunity to respond to fresh Consumer Price Index figures for October. Core CPI is expected to remain at 2.4% yearly. Any deviation may rock markets. See US CPI Preview: Inflation remains secondary to Fed policy
- NZD/USD has been rallying after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has left interest rates unchanged, contrasting market expectations. The bank was expected to cut rates again after inflation expectations dropped. Adrian Orr, Governor of the RBNZ, has expressed satisfaction from the impact of the previous stimulus on the economy. 
- UK elections: Fresh opinion polls have been showing contradicting trends. A YouGov poll has shown a widening of the Conservative/Labour gap to 14% while a Survation poll reflected a narrowing to 6%. 
- UK data: The inflation report for October is set to show headline CPI decelerating from 1.7% to 1.6%, the lowest since early 2017. See UK inflation report outlook: GBP/USD may stumble on another CPI slide. The jobs report for September somewhat disappointed with fewer people employed and a slowdown in wage growth. GBP/USD is looking for a direction in the mid 1.28s. 
- EUR/USD continues grinding its way down ever so slowly. Euro-zone industrial output is set to print a drop in September after an increase in August. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment bounced more than expected in November but continues reflecting pessimism. 
- Cryptocurrencies are little-changed. More Death Cross Forms in EUR/GBP

FX option expiries for Nov 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1015 549m 1.1040 534m - GBP/USD: GB

FX option expiries for Nov 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1015 549m 1.1040 534m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2700 693m 1.2800 778m 1.3000 444m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.50 503m 108.60 371m 108.75 407m 109.75 1.0bn - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3215 950m  - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6350 320m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8500 1.2bn

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by just 580 contracts on Tuesday, reversing the previous drops and resuming the uptrend. In the same line, v

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by just 580 contracts on Tuesday, reversing the previous drops and resuming the uptrend. In the same line, volume went up by around 24.7K contracts following two consecutive daily pullbacks. EUR/USD targets the sub-1.10 areaEUR/USD probed the 1.10 neighbourhood on Tuesday amidst rising open interest and volume. That said, the broader bearish view remains well in place and it can motivate the pair to break below this key support in the short-term horizon.

Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, notes that the RBNZ has surprised the market by leaving the cash rate on hold

Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, notes that the RBNZ has surprised the market by leaving the cash rate on hold at 1%. Key Quotes “16 of 21 analysts were expecting a cut to 0.75% and OIS was ~75% priced for this outcome. We were one of the outliers.” “Rates were kept on hold because economic developments since the August statement did not warrant a change.” “The Bank indicated it is prepared to ease monetary policy further noting near term risks were tilted to the downside.” “On the forecasts, the OCR trough remained at 0.9%, GDP is expected to remain above 2%, the TWI was nudged lower and CPI lifted but a break above 2% not to be sustained.” “We sense there is no urgency from the Bank to cut the cash rate again anytime soon. We now pencil in the next RBNZ cut for May'20 and a placeholder cut for Q3/Q4'20.” “In the near term we expect NZ rates to underperform and the NZD to outperform. We have no curve positions on, but our models are telling us steepeners are the way to go.”

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeps navigating the upper end of the recent range around the 98.30 region. US Dollar Index

DXY keeps the rangebound theme unchanged near 98.30.Trump said on Tuesday that a US-China trade deal is ‘close’.US CPI, Powell’s testimony before Congress next of relevance.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeps navigating the upper end of the recent range around the 98.30 region. US Dollar Index focused on data, trade, Fed The index is alternating gains with losses so far this week, managing to keep the trade near recent tops at 98.40 although it seems bulls still need a stronger catalyst to impose their will. News from the trade front noted President Trump hinted at the likeliness that the US and China could clinch a trade agreement soon at his speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday. Trump, however, made no mention of lifting tariffs or the timing of a potential meeting with his Chinese peer Xi Jinping. Moving forward, inflation figures for the month of October will be the salient release later in the NA session ahead of Chief Powell’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress. In addition, Minneapolis Fed N.Kashkari (2020 voter, dovish) will speak in Wisconsin. What to look for around USD The index has managed well to reverse some selling pressure in past sessions and it remains so far sidelined near weekly tops around the 98.40 region. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade war should remain ruling the global sentiment, while the attention has now shifted to Powell’s testimony before Congress and key inflation data out later today. On the broader view, the outlook on the greenback appears constructive on the back of the Fed’s renewed ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 98.33 and a break above 98.42 (monthly high Nov.12) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 97.97 (100-day SMA) seconded by 97.53 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

Intensifying unrest in Hong Kong joins on-going uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal to drag the Asian stocks southwards on early Wednesday.

The third day of protests in Hong Kong wobbles Asian stocks amid US-China trade uncertainty.The UK, US and Indian inflation data will be the key ahead of Fed’s Powell’s Testimony.Intensifying unrest in Hong Kong joins on-going uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal to drag the Asian stocks southwards on early Wednesday. Among them, the HANG SENG becomes the biggest loser while BSE SENSEX stands on the other end. The third consecutive day of protests in Hong Kong pushes it towards the “brink of a total breakdown”, as per the CNBC reporter Eunice Yoon’s tweet while quoting the city police. In a reaction, the national equity gauge, HANG SENG loses more than 2.1% by the press time. Also exerting downside pressure on the Asian stocks is the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s readiness to announce more tariffs on China should it fails in the phase one deal. Though, the option of tariff reversal stays on the cards until the deal finalizes. Additionally, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and the broad strength of the US dollar (USD) act as extra downers for the Asian equities. In a reaction, the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 1.92% while MSCI’s index of Asia Pacific shares ex-Japan declines 1.0% while Japan’s NIKKEI flashes -0.80% number by the time of writing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s surprise step back from widely anticipated 0.25% rate cut weakened the Australian and New Zealand indices whereas India’s BSE SENSEX registers near 0.1% gain amid hopes of recovery in headlines inflation data. Traders will now focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers from the United Kingdom (UK), the US and Indian ahead of waiting for the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony.

Bill Evans, analyst at Westpac, notes that Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 4.5% to 97.0 in November from 92.8

Bill Evans, analyst at Westpac, notes that Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 4.5% to 97.0 in November from 92.8 in October. Key Quotes “This rise in the Index follows a sharp 5.5% fall in October. The pattern of confidence falling in response to a rate cut and recovering when the RBA remains on hold repeats what we saw earlier in the year when the Index fell by 4.1% following the July cash rate cut only to recover 3.6% in August, when the RBA left rates unchanged.” “This result continues to support the general view that consumers are somewhat unnerved by the announcement of low rates and media controversy around the banks’ responses.” “Note that looking through month to month volatility the Index has fallen by around 4% since the RBA started cutting the cash rate in June and has been below the 100 level, indicating pessimists outnumber optimists, for four of the last five months.” “The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 3. Westpac expects that the Bank will hold rates steady at that meeting. Recent publications from the Bank indicate that it is prepared to take more time to assess the impact of the three cuts we have already seen. However, the Board retains a clear easing bias and we expect it to act on this bias next February with a further 25bp rate cut.”

Amid ongoing Hong Kong violence and dimmed US-China trade deal prospects, the risk-off sentiment was the main underlying theme in Asia this Wednesday.

Amid ongoing Hong Kong violence and dimmed US-China trade deal prospects, the risk-off sentiment was the main underlying theme in Asia this Wednesday. The US dollar traded modestly flat against the Euro, the Yen and the Aussie while fell against the Swiss franc, gold and Kiwi, having ignored the rise in the US Treasury yields. The New Zealand dollar outperformed the fx board after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets to the upside by standing pat on in its monetary policy, with the OCR unchanged at 1.00%. The NZD/USD pair rallied nearly one big figure on the rate decision and reached fresh six-day highs at 0.6416 before easing to near 0.6400. Meanwhile, the Aussie witnessed an up and down session and held near two-week lows of 0.6831. The moves were driven by the broader market sentiment amid growing trade worries and mixed Australian macro news. The USD/JPY pair hovered in a 25-pips narrow range around the 200-DMA at 109.03, with the upside limited by the losses in the Asian equities and US equity futures. Oil prices also slipped, tracking the negative risk tone on trade jitters, and added to the weakness in the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD eked out mild gains to test the 1.3250 level. Among the European currencies, the EUR/USD pair defended the 1.10 handle but the bounce appeared shallow amid weaker Chinese Yuan and Euro area growth concerns. The Cable kept its range around the midpoint of 1.28 the handle ahead of the key UK inflation data. Main Topics in Asia WH Adviser Kudlow: No tariff adjustments until China deal has been finalized – CNBC US Justice Department: Chinese national pleads guilty to theft of trade secrets from the US petroleum company Quite a lot of criticisms and complaints about China from US Pres. Trump – Global Times BCG: Realistic view needed to resolve China-US trade woes - Global Times Tariffs still a major hurdle in US and China reaching a trade deal - WSJ Fed’s Kashkari: Feeling a little bit better about the US economy than he had a few months ago BOJ’s Kuroda: Important for Japan to ensure it has market's trust in medium, long-term fiscal health RBNZ leaves rates unchanged at 1.00%. disappoints the doves – Kiwi rallies hard US Pres. Trump offers trade deal, sanctions workaround to Turkey’s Erdogan - WaPo RBNZ’s Orr: On hold decision was unanimous RBNZ’s Orr: No urgency to further easing at this point Key Focus Ahead We have a busy day ahead, in terms of the economic data/ events, as markets gear up for day 1 of the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, due later in the American mid-morning at 1600 GMT, especially after the Trump disappointment on trade. Also, in focus remains the speech by the Fed officials Barkin and Kashkari that will follow Powell’s. On the data front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports from both the UK and US will hog the limelight in the EU and NA session respectively. Meanwhile, the second-liner German Final CPI and Eurozone Industrial Production data will be also watched alongside any fresh developments on the US-China trade issue and UK politics. Towards the NY closing, the weekly US Crude Stocks data will be published at 2130 GMT, by the American Petroleum Institute (API). EUR/USD defends 1.1000 ahead of key data, Powell’s testimony EUR/USD off four-week lows but downside risks persist. USD/CNY’s rise amid trade uncertainty could limit the EUR bulls. The focus stays on Eurozone Industrial Production, US CPI and Powell’s testimony. GBP/USD: Modestly changed below 21-day SMA ahead of UK CPI While the absence of major catalysts from the UK has recently tamed the GBP/USD pair’s moves, the market’s fear ahead of the key data/events also contributes to the latest inactivity. The Cable seesaws around 1.2850 during pre-London open on Wednesday. UK inflation report outlook: GBP/USD may stumble on another CPI slide UK inflation is set to slow to 1.6% yearly in October. Odds of a rate cut may rise if CPI extends its slump. GBP/USD bias is to the downside after weak data, fresh election uncertainty. US CPI Preview: Inflation remains secondary to Fed policy Annual core and headline CPI stable in October. Federal Reserve rate pause does not reference inflation. Core CPI has averaged 2.17% through September this year. Chairman Powell before Congress: Praising the economy and rebutting the President Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will repeat in Congress the monetary policy message he delivered after the October 30th FOMC meeting.  

Analysts at National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) have pushed out their expected timing of the next cash rate cut by the RBA to February 2020, where t

Analysts at National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) have pushed out their expected timing of the next cash rate cut by the RBA to February 2020, where they expect a further reduction of 25bps to a new low of 0.5%. Key Quotes “It is at this level of the cash rate where the RBA has previously stated it would outline a ‘package’ of unconventional policies if further monetary easing is required to support growth, full employment and the return of inflation to target.” “The RBA Governor is speaking on “Unconventional Monetary Policy” on November 26th. To be clear, we think that the RBA should actually provide a further interest rate cut next month with private sector growth remaining weak and little evidence to date that prior easing or the tax rebates has done enough to offset the weakness in the economy. However, for now, the RBA appears to be in a holding pattern, while it assesses the impact of prior rate cuts and ‘the gentle turning point’.” “We see an improvement in growth over time but not to a sufficiently strong rate of growth to prevent the unemployment rate beginning to rise. At the same time, the Government does not seem to be inclined to provide material fiscal stimulus in the near term, which increases the need for the RBA to ease further (including a further rate cut and unconventional policy) should our forecast of a deteriorating labour market materialise.”  

USD/CNH fails to hold on to recovery gains as 100-day EMA and one-month-old falling trend line restrict the pair’s near-term upside.

USD/CNH pulls back from 100-day EMA, monthly resistance line.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day EMA limits near-term declines.USD/CNH fails to hold on to recovery gains as 100-day EMA and one-month-old falling trend line restrict the pair’s near-term upside. The quote currently takes the rounds to 7.0200 by the press time of the pre-European session on Wednesday. Considering bearish conditions of 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, prices are expected to stretch the latest pullback towards 50% Fibonacci retracement level of July-September upside, at 7.0070, whereas August 18 low near 6.9889 could please sellers afterward. Even so, pair’s further declines will find it hard to prevail unless breaking 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 6.9620 and 200-day EMA level of 6.9576 on the daily closing basis. Meanwhile, the pair’s sustained rise beyond a 100-day EMA level of 7.0280 could trigger fresh rise to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 7.0520. However, pair’s further advances will be guarded by the mid-October top near 7.1130. USD/CNH daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Absence of major catalysts from the UK has recently tamed the GBP/USD pair’s moves, market’s fear ahead of the key data/events also contributes to inactivity.

GBP/USD looks for direction amid a lack of fresh catalysts from the UK.The shrinking gap between the Tory and the Labor leadership in December polls join pressure on the UK PM to release Russian meddling report.While the absence of major catalysts from the UK has recently tamed the GBP/USD pair’s moves, market’s fear ahead of the key data/events also contributes to the latest inactivity. The cable seesaws around 1.2850 during pre-London open on Wednesday. Following the mixed readings of British employment details, the GBP/USD pair witnessed another negative in the form of the pressure on the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to release a report concerning the Russian meddling in 2016 Brexit referendum. The fresh push can be ascertained with the UK Mirror’s story quoting anonymous witness that alleges Russian PM Vladimir Putin of deploying online trolls to deepen political strife in the UK. Elsewhere, the trade concerns between the United States (US) and China are getting grave with the Trump administration pushing for a successful phase one talks by indirectly threatening to increase tariffs on the failure to do so. Further, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have been quite upbeat off-late and add strength to the US dollar (USD). Prices now await October month Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the UK ahead of watching over the US CPI for the same month as well the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. While the US inflation numbers are less likely to deviate, the Fed Chair will be closely observed to confirm the recent optimism among the policymakers. On the other hand, the UK CPI could weaken to 1.6% versus 1.7% prior on YoY basis while likely declining to -0.1% from +0.1% earlier on the MoM basis. Analysts at the TD Securities said, “We look for CPI to slip from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%), in line with the BoE's forecast from the November MPR. The entire deceleration in inflation is due to energy prices; household energy prices will be affected by the OFGEM cap, while fuel prices are also likely to decline a bit on a y/y basis. Stripping out the volatility, we're looking for core CPI to hold steady at 1.7% y/y (mkt 1.7%).” Technical Analysis A Doji candle on the daily chart and a downward sloping trading formation since late-October keep the cable bears hopeful unless prices rally beyond 1.3000 round-figure.  

EUR/USD trades better bid above the 1.10 handle ahead of the European open, having defended the last on several occasions in the overnight trades, Bea

EUR/USD off four-week lows but downside risks persist.USD/CNY’s rise amid trade uncertainty could limit the EUR bulls. Focus stays on Eurozone data, US CPI and Powell’s testimony. EUR/USD trades better bid above the 1.10 handle ahead of the European open, having defended the last on several occasions in the overnight trades, Bears now await the key US inflation report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell’s testimony for the next push lower.   EUR/USD: 5-DMA at 1.1025 to limit the recovery gains? The spot is seen somewhat benefitting from a pause in the broad-based US dollar rally after the US President Trump’s latest comments failed to offer any fresh details on the US-China trade deal while increasing the trade anxiety. The US dollar index trades around a flat line near 98.30, consolidating the rise to four-week tops of 98.42. Despite the tepid bounce, EUR/USD remains vulnerable and risks falling below the 1.1000 level, tracking the weakness in the Chinese Yuan vs. the US dollar, as the trade uncertainty led China economic slowdown fears continue to weigh heavily on the Chinese currency. Note that China is Europe’s biggest export market and the bloc’s remains at a competitive disadvantage should the Yuan depreciate.   From a technical perspective, the 5-DMA barrier at 1.1025 is likely to restrict the recovery attempts while the downside sees the next support near mid-October lows at 1.0991. A break below which open floors for a test of the 1.0950 level. The sub-1.1000 levels could be tested on likely improvement in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due for release at 1330 GMT. Ahead of the US inflation report, the German Final CPI figures, Eurozone Industrial Production data and trade developments could offer some trading impetus to the prices. However, the main event risk for Wednesday remains Powell’s testimony on the economic outlook before the congressional Joint Economic Committee at 1600 GMT. EUR/USD Technical levels to consider  

Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, notes that Australia’s wage price index (WPI) rose by 0.5% q/q in Q3 2019, slowing annual growth to 2.2%. Ke

Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, notes that Australia’s wage price index (WPI) rose by 0.5% q/q in Q3 2019, slowing annual growth to 2.2%. Key Quotes “The WPI rose by 0.5% q/q and 2.2% y/y in Q3. The Q2 result was revised down from 0.6% q/q to 0.5% q/q.” “The private sector maintained quarterly growth at 0.5%, but this wasn’t enough to prevent annual growth slipping to 2.2%, down from 2.4% in Q1. However, including bonuses, private sector wage growth jumped to 2.9% y/y. This effectively reversed the prior quarter’s fall, and we don’t think it points to an upward shift in wage outcomes.” “Public sector wage growth dropped back to 0.5% q/q. This followed a very strong 0.8% q/q result in Q2, which was inflated by a significant, one-off increase for Victorian public sector nurses and midwives to achieve parity with New South Wales. Annual growth in public wages slowed to 2.5%.” “Most industries saw annual wage growth slow in Q3, with the largest decline in other services (-0.4ppt). Transport (+0.2ppt) and professional services (+0.1ppt) were among the few that saw improvement. Annual wage growth in construction and retail was unchanged during the quarter.”

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today left the OCR on hold at 1.00%, saying that “Economic d

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today left the OCR on hold at 1.00%, saying that “Economic developments since the August Statement do not warrant a change to the already stimulatory monetary setting at this time.” Key Quotes “The RBNZ gave no explicit signal of cuts to come, although it does remain open to the possibility of cuts if required. The OCR track was the same as August, troughing at 0.9%. This implies a 50/50 chance of an OCR cut at some point. Similarly, the RBNZ said “We will add further monetary stimulus if needed.” “The decision not to cut the OCR was a big surprise to financial markets, as financial market pricing indicated an 80% chance of a cut and most economists were forecasting a cut.” “The RBNZ appears to be pausing to assess how the stimulus delivered to date will affect the economy. The RBNZ acknowledged that the economy is currently weak, but they also acknowledged that commodity prices have been robust, the exchange rate is low, and low interest rates will support spending and investment going forward. The RBNZ did not pay great heed to the drop in inflation expectations in yesterday’s survey, perhaps because market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen.” “In response to today’s announcement, pricing for mid-2020 has shifted to a 40% chance of a cut. In other reactions, 2yr swap rates rose 18bp from 1.04% to 1.22%, 10yr swap rates rose 13bp from 1.54% to 1.67%, NZD/USD rose from 0.6335 to 0.6417, and AUD/NZD fell from 1.0800 to 1.0683.”

With the key catalysts being in the pipeline, USD/INR steps back from mid-September high while taking rounds to 71.67 ahead of the European session on Wednesday

USD/INR fails to stay on the top of September 17 high as traders await key data/events.Risk-tone remains sluggish with the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal, continued protests in Hong Kong.A further weakness of the quote can’t be denied amid broad strength of the USD.With the key catalysts being in the pipeline, USD/INR steps back from mid-September high while taking rounds to 71.67 ahead of the European session on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair initially surged to 72.00 amid upbeat sentiment surrounding the trade deal between the United States (US) and China after the US President Donald Trump said to be “too close” to the deal despite staying ready to increase tariffs on failed talks. However, protests in Hong Kong and hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers seem to be the reasons behind the pair’s recent declines. The risk tone, as portrayed by the US 10-year treasury yields, stays mostly positive around 1.92% while Indian stocks and S&P 500 Futures remain under pressure. The US and India both are scheduled for publishing headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October at 12:00 GMT while the Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in front of the Joint Economic Committee will be the key to watch afterward. While YoY details of the US CPI and CPI ex-Food & Energy are likely to remain unchanged at 2.4% and 1.7% respectively, the market anticipates an improvement in Indian CPI from 3.99% prior. Technical Analysis While sustained trading beyond 72.00 can trigger pair’s run-up towards 72.40 and the yearly top close to 72.65, sellers await the downside break of 71.30 to aim for 71.00 and 70.36/35 support-zone including lows marked on August 08 and September 27.  

The latest Reuters poll revealed a major shift in the monetary policy outlook of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ), mainly in response to signs of easing US-C

The latest Reuters poll revealed a major shift in the monetary policy outlook of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ), mainly in response to signs of easing US-China trade tensions and the recent Yen’s strength. Key Findings: “The survey, taken Nov. 6-12, found that 23 of 41 economists, or 56%, expect the BOJ’s next step will be further easing, down sharply from 85% in last month’s poll. By contrast, 18 economists, or 44%, believe unwinding stimulus will be the BOJ’s next course of action, a dramatic jump from just six economists in the previous survey. All 18 said the BOJ’s unwinding of stimulus would come in 2021 or later. Those who expect further easing forecast a wide range of timelines, including four saying said it could happen as early as December and seven saying not until at least 2021. Asked what dollar/yen level would prompt the BOJ to ease further, about 67% of the economists said when the yen strengthened beyond 100 yen against the dollar.” BOJ’s Kuroda: Important for Japan to ensure it has market's trust in medium, long-term fiscal health

Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, points out that contrary to analyst and market expectations, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.0% today, de

Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, points out that contrary to analyst and market expectations, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.0% today, despite significantly lowering the near-term growth outlook. Key Quotes “The forecast OCR track was all but unchanged, with a low of 0.90% hinting at further action if required.” “We expect the RBNZ will continue to be disappointed on the growth front, but they have made a meaningful downward revision to their estimate of the economy’s speed limit. This makes future aggressive action less likely.” “We are now forecasting two further cuts in May and August next year, taking the OCR to 0.5%. The risks around this forecast are tilted towards earlier and/or more cuts, depending partly on the outcome of the RBNZ’s capital proposals.”

Having slipped below 4H 100MA, AUD/JPY trades around the current month low, near 74.40, while heading into the European session on Wednesday.

AUD/JPY seesaws around monthly low after breaking near-term key moving average.A three-week-old rising trend line restricts near-term upside.Having slipped below 4H 100MA, AUD/JPY trades around the current month low, near 74.40, while heading into the European session on Wednesday. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October-November upside, at 74.17, acts as immediate support while 200-bar simple moving average on the four-hour chart (4H 200MA), near 73.80, can limit pair’s further declines. In a case where bears refrain from respecting 73.80, mid-October lows surrounding 73.00 will be on their radars. On the upside, the 100-bar simple moving average on the four-hour chart (4H 100MA) can question near-term buyers around 74.70 whereas 75.00 and 75.40 could entertain them afterward. If prices keep rising past-75.40, an upward sloping trend-line since October 22, at 75.90 now, will be in the spotlight. AUD/JPY 4-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Despite the latest updates concerning Hong Kong protests and the US-China trade deal, the USD/JPY pair traders prefer being on the “wait and watch” mode.

USD/JPY clings to 200-day SMA amid trade/geopolitical tension.Hong Kong diplomats show the capability to tame the violence, US President Trump says ‘close’ to trade deal with China.Recently upbeat Fedspeak, inactivity around key technical levels, shift market focus to upcoming data/events.Despite the latest updates concerning Hong Kong protests and the US-China trade deal, the USD/JPY pair traders prefer being on the “wait and watch” mode while the quote seesaws around 109.00 during initial trading session on Wednesday. While the uncertainty surrounding the trade deal between the United States (US) and China, coupled with unrest in Hong Kong, keep exerting downside pressure on the pair, overall hawkish sentiment at the Federal Reserve limits the downside off-late. The US diplomats, including President Donald Trump and White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow, recently showed readiness to inflate the Chinese tariffs if the phase one talks fail. The politicians also made it clear that rolling back tariffs is on the cards but not until the deal gets confirmation. On the other hand, Hong Kong’s Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-Chiu both conveyed confidence in the government’s capacity to tame the protests. However, the consequences of continued violence seem to be unthinkable for them. Elsewhere, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials keep lauding the present monetary policy with the latest quote from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari mentioning, “Feeling a little bit better about the US economy than he had a few months ago.” That said, the US 10-year treasury yields recover to 1.924% by the press time while Asian stocks drop amid geopolitical/trade concerns and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) refrain from a rate cut. Markets are now preparing for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Testimony in front of the Joint Economic Committee while also waiting for the October month Consumer Price Index (CPI) and another dossier of the Fedspeak. Technical Analysis An upside clearance of 109.50 could flash 110.00 on the chart while late-may high around 110.70 could become buyers’ favorite then after. Meanwhile, an ascending trend line since August 26, around 108.55 now, could keep the pair’s downside limited.  

South Korea Money Supply Growth registered at 7.2%, below expectations (7.4%) in September

The AUD/USD pair witnessed a volatile Wednesday’s Asian session so far, mainly driven by the US-China trade anxiety and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s

Aussie – volatile but within range near two-week lows. Trump dashes hopes on trade deal clarity, risk hit. Markets await fresh trade news, US data and Powell’s testimony. The AUD/USD pair witnessed a volatile Wednesday’s Asian session so far, mainly driven by the US-China trade anxiety and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rates on-hold surprise decision. US-China trade updates remain the key driver The upside attempts in the Chinese proxy, the Aussie, continue to get sold-off into growing worries that the US-China trade talks are stalling after the US President Trump failed to deliver any new details on the likely trade deal. The 16-month long US-China trade war has fueled global economic slowdown fears that continue to hurt the broader market sentiment as well as the demand for the higher-yielding/ risk currencies such as the AUD while boosting the safe-haven flows in the US dollar across the board. However, the bulls manage to defend the two-week lows of 0.6931 for the time being, helped by the 1+% surge in its OZ counterpart, the Kiwi, after the RBNZ unexpectedly refrained from delivering a rate cut that was widely priced in by the markets. Meanwhile, RBNZ Governor Orr’s comments also kept the buoyant tone intact around the NZD. Despite the two-way price movements seen over the last hours, the risks remain skewed to the downside in the spot, as the renewed trade jitters will continue to have a negative influence ahead of the US CPI data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on the economic outlook before the congressional Joint Economic Committee later on Wednesday.Also, in focus remains the key Australian jobs report due on Thursday at 0030 GMT, which will offer fresh hints on the RBA’s likely monetary policy path. AUD/USD Technical levels to consider  

More comments are crossing the wires from the RBNZ Governor Orr, as he now responds to the Q&A session. Predicting economy to pick up in new year. Pol

More comments are crossing the wires from the RBNZ Governor Orr, as he now responds to the Q&A session. Predicting the economy to pick up in new year. Policy stimulatory will be for a long time, will act again if necessary. No urgency to further easing at this point. Ups and the downs in economic data since the August statement broadly offsetting each other. If circumstances change, "we will act". The Kiwi keeps its range around the 0.6400 level, unable to clear the 0.6420 confluence zone despite Orr’s slightly hawkish comments. NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Stays below 0.6420 resistance confluence after RBNZ’s Orr

With the RBNZ’s Orr stepping back from any surprises after the central bank’s refrain from a rate cut, the NZD/USD pair trades around 0.6400.

100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limit near-term upside.Sellers await a downside break of the six-week-old rising channel.With the RBNZ’s Orr stepping back from any surprises after the central bank’s refrain from a rate cut, the NZD/USD pair trades around 0.6400 by the press time of early Wednesday. The kiwi pair initially surged around 50 pips after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets by holding its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.0% again broad consensus of a 0.25% rate cut. RBNZ’s Governor Adrian Orr, in his press conference after the rate decision, praises employment numbers while citing concerns for inflation and trading partner growth. Read More: RBNZ’s Orr: On hold decision was unanimous Despite registering noticeable moves off-late, the NZD/USD pair stays between key technical indicators where 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-October downpour, around 0.6420, restricts immediate upside while near-term channel’s support, at 0.6308 now, limit adjacent declines. During the breakouts, the channel’s resistance line at 0.6490 and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6530 could please bulls while mid-October low of 0.6240 can question sellers ahead of offering 0.6200 round-figure. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr is on the wires now, via Reuters, addressing the post-monetary policy press conference. The

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr is on the wires now, via Reuters, addressing the post-monetary policy press conference. The RBNZ caught the markets off guard by standing pat on its interest rate decision last hour. The central bank left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at a record low of 1.00%. Key Quotes: On hold decision was unanimous. Policy very stimulating at present. We'll add more stimulus if needed. Rates will stay low for a while to come. Lower NZD has supported earnings. The Kiwi regained the 0.64 handle on Orr's comments after he said that the policy is very stimulating currently. 

Ahead of the Turkish President Erdogan’s White House visit on Wednesday, the US President Trump has offered his Turkish counterpart a package of induc

Ahead of the Turkish President Erdogan’s White House visit on Wednesday, the US President Trump has offered his Turkish counterpart a package of inducements for improving the US.-Turkey relations, Washington Post (WaPo) reports Meanwhile, USD/TRY fell to daily lows of 5.7674, as the Turkish Lira strengthened on the above story. However, the cross quickly reversed to now trade near 5.7705 region, still down -0.11% on the day.

With the RBNZ’s refrain from respecting the market consensus of a rate cut, AUD/NZD slumps to the low of 1.0677, before trading around 1.0690.

AUD/NZD plunges as RBNZ beat market expectations of a 0.25% rate cut with no change in OCR.100-day EMA can offer immediate support before the key 1.0635/30 support confluence.1.0850 becomes a challenge for buyers.With the RBNZ’s refrain from respecting the market consensus of a rate cut, AUD/NZD slumps to the low of 1.0677, before trading around 1.0690, by the press time of early Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) fails to respect broad forecasts of a 0.25% cut to its Official Cash Rate (OCR) during the November month monetary policy meeting. In a reaction, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) surges across the board and the AUD/NZD pair doesn’t become an exception. 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.0667 can offer immediate support to the pair ahead of highlighting 1.0635/30 support confluence that comprises 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-November upside. Should prices dip below 1.0630 on a daily closing basis, August 126 low of 1.0530 will be bear’s favorite. Alternatively, buyers will stay away unless witnessing a daily closing beyond 1.0850. However, the pair’s pullbacks to 1.0750 can’t be denied. AUD/NZD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

On Wednesday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0026 versus Tuesday’s fix at 6.9988. Meanwhile

On Wednesday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0026 versus Tuesday’s fix at 6.9988. Meanwhile, the PBOC skips the open market operations (OMOs) yet again.

RBNZ again surprises global markets, this time positively, while turning down the expectations of a rate cut, which in turn propels NZD/USD to 0.6420.

NZD/USD rallies more than 50 pips after RBNZ turned down market expectations.Expectations of a 0.25% rate cut surged after Tuesday’s RBNZ Inflation data.Governor Orr’s press conference will be the key to watch for now.RBNZ again surprises global markets, this time positively, while turning down the expectations of a rate cut, which in turn propels NZD/USD to 0.6420 during early Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced no change to its 1.0% Official Cash Rate (OCR) as a part of its November month monetary policy meeting decision. Risk tone has been sluggish off-late as the market’s failure to gain any clear signal concerning the much-awaited trade deal between the United States (US) and China keep traders away. The latest headlines signal that the US diplomats, including President Donald Trump, keep reiterating nearness to a deal while the Wall Street Journal states otherwise considering the absence of the US commitment to remove existing tariffs on China. On the other hand, the US Justice Department recently conveyed that a Chinese national, Hongjin Tan, pleads guilty for stealing information from the US-based petroleum company concerning the research and development downstream energy market product that is worth more than $1 billion. That said, that market’s risk barometer, the US 10-year treasury yields and stocks, continue signaling a lack of trading interest. Investors will now focus on the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference, at 02:00 GMT, for predicting the kiwi pair’s near-term direction. In doing so, clues for the central bank’s future rate actions will be closely observed. Technical Analysis Buyers will prefer waiting for pair’s daily closing beyond 100-day EMA level of 0.6427 for big positions. Alternatively, short-term rising support trend line around 0.6290 can stop sellers targeting October 16 low of 0.6240.  

RBNZ leaves rates unchanged at 1.00%. disappoints the doves – Kiwi rallies hard

At its November monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, New Zealand’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at a historic low of 1.00%, following a bigger-than-expected cut announced in August. The Kiwi rallied nearly 70-pips to test the 0.64 handle on the unexpected on-hold decision by the RBNZ. 

New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision came in at 1%, above expectations (0.75%)

According to the latest Wall Street Journal story, tariffs still a major hurdle in the US and China reaching a trade deal. Developing story ....

According to the latest Wall Street Journal story, tariffs still a major hurdle in the US and China reaching a trade deal.   Developing story ....

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda, as he makes his scheduled speech in the Japanese parliament (Die

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda, as he makes his scheduled speech in the Japanese parliament (Diet). Key Quotes: If market trust over Japan’s finances is lost, Govt may face difficulty procuring funds from market via JGB issuance. Important for Japan to ensure it has market's trust in medium, long-term fiscal health.

In a reaction to the Australian Wage Price Index data, AUD/USD drops further towards near-term key support line while trading around 0.6840.

AUD/USD nears key support levels after Australian data.Aussie Wage Price Index (Q3) weakens on YoY basis after upbeat Westpac Consumer Confidence numbers.100-day EMA restricts near-term upside, 0.6800 could please sellers after trend line breaks.In a reaction to the Australian Wage Price Index data, AUD/USD drops further towards near-term key support line while trading around 0.6840 during the Asian session on Wednesday. Australia’s third-quarter (Q3) Wage Price Index slipped below 2.3% forecast and prior to 2.2% on YoY while matching 0.5% market consensus on QoQ. Earlier, Westpac Consumer Confidence for November rose more than 2.0% expected and -5.5% prior to +4.5%. Even if bearish signals from 12-Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) lure sellers, a daily closing below the six-week-old rising trend line, at 0.6820 now, becomes necessary for the pair to revisit 0.6800 mark. It should be noted that 50-day EMA level of 0.6832 offers the closest support to the pair. During the quote’s declines below 0.6800, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of July-October downpour at 0.6766 and mid-October lows near 0.6720 will be in the spotlight. On the upside, buyers will look for a clear break above 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6856 to aim for a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6875 and then rise towards 0.6900 round-figure. AUD/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.3%) in 3Q: Actual (2.2%)

Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) in line with expectations (0.5%) in 3Q

Although pessimism surrounding the US trade relations with China and the EU, coupled with Hong Kong protests, favored Gold's earlier bounce, prices remain weak.

Gold prices remain below 100-day EMA.Optimism surrounding the US economy, upbeat Fedspeak confronts doubts on US-China trade deal.Powell’s testimony, US CPI will be the key to watch.Although pessimism surrounding the US trade relations with China and the EU, coupled with Hong Kong protests, favored Gold to bounce off multi-month lows on Tuesday, prices are again under pressure while taking rounds to $1,458 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The US dollar (USD) regained its strength the previous day amid upbeat comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and market’s rush to risk-safety. Extending the greenback’s strength are the latest statements from the United States (US) President Donald Trump and White House (WH) Adviser Larry Kudlow. Both of them showed optimism concerning the domestic economy, challenged the Fed’s monetary policy and increased doubts on future trade relations between the US and China. While the US President Trump stood ready to inflate tariffs on Chinese products should the deal fails, Mr. Kudlow said tariff reduction could be the part of the phase one deal but not until the entire deal is put together. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari recently said that he is feeling a bit better about the US economy than he had a few months ago. Elsewhere, Hong Kong protests continue while the US and China arguing each other. The US blames the dragon nation limiting Hong Kong’s autonomy while China almost warns the Trump administration to stay away from the internal issues. Even so, global bonds stay mostly unchanged, despite being downbeat, while stocks are waiting for the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee. Also contributing to the wait and watch mode in October month Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the US. Concerning the data/events, TD Securities said, “We look for headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October, partly aided by an increase in energy prices, while core inflation should decline a tenth to 2.3% y/y. In particular, we expect core goods inflation to recover m/m, but for core services inflation to slow to 0.2% m/m after four straight increases at 0.3%. Conversely, we expect Chair Powell to largely reiterate the FOMC policy message that monetary policy and the economy remain "in a good place" at the start of his two-day visit to the Hill on Wednesday.” Technical Analysis Unless breaking 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of $1,464, prices are less likely to revisit $1,500 area, which in turn highlights the importance of a three-month-old falling trend line support, at $1,431 now.  

The USD/JPY pair is seen extending its overnight bearish consolidation phase around the 109 handle into Tokyo open, as the sentiment remains undermine

USD/JPY weighed down by trade stalemate, cautious equities.Upside to face stiff resistance at 5-DMA of 109.12.All eyes on US CPI and Powell’s testimony for a range breakout. The USD/JPY pair is seen extending its overnight bearish consolidation phase around the 109 handle into Tokyo open, as the sentiment remains undermined by US President Trump’s failure to offer fresh insights into the trade deal signing. USD/JPY clings to 200-DMA at 109.03 in early Asian trades The spot trades modestly flat, with the bias leaning to the downside, as the anti-risk Yen keeps the upper edge over the greenback amid a cautious market mood, indicated by the negative start to the Japanese equity markets and losses in the S&P 500 futures. Despite the downbeat tone, USD/JPY manages to hold the 10-DMA support at 108.84, as the 1% rally in the US Treasury yields across the curve helps keep the buoyant tone intact around the US dollar vs, its main peers. The USD index stalled its upside following Trump’s speech but now remans close to the four-week highs of 98.42. Further, the bears continue to limit the upside attempts, with the US dollar weakness overnight likely to add to the downbeat tone around the spot. The USD index consolidates the correction from three-week of 98.40 near 98.20 at Tokyo open, down -0.15% so far.   Meanwhile, the risk sentiment remains the main market driver, as the Yen buyers ignore the below estimates Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI). Next of relevance for the pair is likely to be the US inflation report and the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony due later in the NA session. USD/JPY Technical levels to consider  

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.1% below forecasts (1.2%) in October

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.3%) in October

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is seen extending its overnight softer tone into early Asia, uninspired by a lack of fresh updates on the US-China trade de

Oil on the back foot amid no new updates on trade from Trump.   Losses capped by Cushing inventories drawdown. Focus remains on trade headlines ahead of API Crude Stocks data. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is seen extending its overnight softer tone into early Asia, uninspired by a lack of fresh updates on the US-China trade deal from the US President Trump. The stalemate on the US-China trade deal re-ignites concerns about slower economic growth and its negative impact on the oil demand growth outlook, rendering oil-negative. US President Trump said “U.S. and Chinese negotiators were “close” to a “phase one” trade deal, but largely repeated well-worn rhetoric about China’s “cheating” on trade”, per Reuters. The black gold also suffers amid ongoing strength in the US dollar across its main competitors, as safe-haven flows amid trade jitters continue to benefit the buck. A stronger greenback makes the USD-denominated oil more expensive for the holders in foreign currencies. On Tuesday, the barrel of WTI reversed its 1% rally led by the crude inventory drawdown at the Cushing, the delivery point. The latest data from the market intelligence firm Genscape showed that crude inventories, fell by about 1.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 8, snapping five straight weeks of increase. Markets now await the US weekly Crude Stocks data due later today at 2130 GMT, as released by the American Petroleum Institute (API), for the next direction in oil prices. Meanwhile, the US-China trade-related developments will continue to influence the commodity. WTI Levels to watch    

While following a three-week-old trading range, GBP/JPY seesaws around a 100-bar SMA level of 140.00 during Wednesday’s Asian session.

GBP/JPY seesaws between 139.35 and 140.75 since late-October.An absence of extreme RSI conditions keeps price momentum in check.Sustained trading beyond 200-bar SMA portrays the pair’s strength.While following a three-week-old trading range, GBP/JPY seesaws around a 100-bar SMA level of 140.00 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair has been trading between 139.35 and 140.75 since October 24 while the normal conditions, between 70 and 30, of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) also portray the choppy sentiment. As a result, buyers will look for entry beyond 140.75, targeting the previous month high of 141.51, whereas sellers could aim for 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October month upside, at 138.91, on the downside break of 139.35. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s sustained trading above 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 137.40 portrays the bullish bias, a break of which could fetch the quote to mid-October low surrounding 135.50. GBP/JPY 4-hour chart Trend: Sideways  

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence above forecasts (2%) in November: Actual (4.5%)

Early Wednesday at 01:00 GMT market sees monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Early Wednesday at 01:00 GMT market sees monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Also increasing the importance of the event is the quarterly release of the RBNZ Rate Statement, to be followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s speech at 02:00 GMT. Considering the recently downbeat inflation expectations from the central bank, markets anticipate a 25 basis points (bps) cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) of 1.0%. Rate cut or surprise? While RBNZ policymakers and those occupying the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) ‘shadow’ monetary policy board have stopped supporting further rate cuts after a mid-year reduction of 0.50%, the New Zealand central bank is famous for surprises. As a result, Kiwi traders are all waiting for the RBNZ’s rate decision considering the recent weakness in the domestic data and the policymakers’ refrain from bearish bias. Ahead of the event, Westpac reiterated the latest change in the forecast, from no rate cut to 0.25% reduction while saying, Westpac regards the RBNZ policy decision (12 pm Syd/9 am Sing/HK) as a very close call but we now lean slightly towards a cut to 0.75%. If the RBNZ does cut, we would expect no explicit signal of future follow-up cuts, similar to the May and August MPSs. We would expect the OCR forecast to be around 0.75%, again not signaling any intent to cut again. However, the RBNZ should remain open to the possibility of further cuts with a phrase like “There is scope for further fiscal and monetary easing if necessary.” Governor Orr will deliver a press conference an hour after the release. On the contrary, analysts at the TD Securities term today’s RBNZ rate decision as a line ball call, RBNZ rate decision – this is a line ball call. The RBNZ, the RBA and the Fed have each cut 75bps this year with the Fed and the RBA indicating moving to the sidelines as the more prudent strategy. With trade headlines improving, the NZ TWI well below Aug MPS forecasts and data suggesting stabilization, the Bank can afford to take a patient approach and assess the data following the 50bps Aug cut. Impact on NZD/USD While the recent pessimism surrounding the trade deal between the United States (US) and China weigh on Antipodeans, weakness in the domestic fundamentals also increases the odds of the central bank’s rate cut. With this, the Kiwi pair can extend its latest weakness while looking for fresh clues from the quarterly economic assessment and Governor Orr’s speech. Technically, the bearish signal from 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) and sustained trading below the key exponential moving averages (EMA) portray underlying weakness in the pair’s trading sentiment. As a result, sellers will for a test to the six-week-old rising trend line, at 0.6305 now, ahead of targeting mid-October bottom near 0.6240 and 0.6200 round-figure. However, an upside clearance of 50-day EMA level of 0.6370 could trigger pair’s recovery to 100-day EMA level of 0.6430 and monthly top surrounding 0.6470. Keynotes NZD/USD: Under pressure ahead of RBNZ rate decision About the RBNZ interest rate decision and rate statement The RBNZ interest rate decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD. The RBNZ rate statement contains the explanations of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. About RBNZ monetary policy statement The New Zealand Reserve Bank publishes its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) quarterly. Each Monetary Policy Statement must set out: how the Reserve Bank proposes to achieve its targets; how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years; and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last Monetary Policy Statement.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Italy’s Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri sounded more optimistic on the Italian economic growth prospects for the

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Italy’s Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri sounded more optimistic on the Italian economic growth prospects for the next year. Key Quotes: “Italy's economy will slightly grow in the last three months of the year and a 0.6% rise in the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 is widely reachable.” "Short-term forecast models show a slight increase in Q4, which could improve the overall growth rate of 2019 and also have a positive drag effect in 2020." EUR/USD technical analysis: Euro rolling into the Asian session near one-month lows

South Korea Unemployment Rate below expectations (3.8%) in October: Actual (3.5%)

Speaking in an audience Q&A, Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Minneapolis President Kashkari noted the following. He is feeling a little bit better about

Speaking in an audience Q&A, Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Minneapolis President Kashkari noted the following. He is feeling a little bit better about the US economy than he had a few months ago.

Not only lower highs since late-October but a bearish candlestick formation also portrays the GBP/USD pair’s weakness.

GBP/USD remains above 21-day EMA.A three-week-old falling trend line depicts lower highs.Bearish MACD also increases the odds of the pair’s decline.Not only lower highs since late-October but a bearish candlestick formation also portrays the GBP/USD pair’s weakness as it takes rounds to 1.2855 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The pair formed a Doji candle on the daily (D1) chart for Tuesday, which followed an upswing on Monday. As a result, overall weakness in sentiment, as portrayed by the bearish 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) and lower highs setup, can reverse the recent U-turn from 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2804. In doing so, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September-October upside, at 1.2766, can be the nearby support ahead of October 11 high of 1.2707 and September month top surrounding 1.2583. However, pair’s run-up beyond 1.2940 resistance line will negate the bearish formation and can propel the quote again towards 1.3000 and the previous month high near 1.3015. During the quote’s additional rise past-1.3015, may month high around 1.3180 will be the key to watch for the bulls. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The Global Times quotes Hans-Paul Bürkner (Bürkner), Chairman of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), as he expresses his take on the US-China trade issue,

The Global Times quotes Hans-Paul Bürkner (Bürkner), Chairman of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), as he expresses his take on the US-China trade issue, in an interview with the Chinese news outlet. Key Quotes: “Urges a realistic outlook when resolving the trade conflict.” “Voices approval for an open approach China has taken to address the changing global economic landscape.” “Hopes for more opening-up progress in the pipeline.” “The situation between China and the US involves more conflict than the world has seen before, but eventually we'll resolve it because this is the best way for both. China will benefit and the US will benefit too. Otherwise, everybody will lose.” “There will be a trade deal. There will be one deal after another, and one issue after another will be resolved but it can take a lot of time.” 

With no clarity over the trade US-China trade deal, the AUD/USD pair remains under pressure for the fourth consecutive day.

AUD/USD seesaws around 50-day EMA as trade pessimism, greenback strength dominates market sentiment.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence and the Wage Price Index are immediate catalysts to watch.The US CPI, Powell’s Testimony will decorate the economic calendar afterward.With no clarity over the trade US-China trade deal, the AUD/USD pair remains under pressure for the fourth consecutive day while trading around 0.6840 amid initial Wednesday morning in Asia. The Aussie pair recently failed to benefit from the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) sentiment numbers amid broad market pessimism surrounding the trade deal between the United States (US) and China. However, the return of the US traders from Veterans Day holiday could help the US dollar (USD) to recover most of Monday’s losses during the previous day. The US President Donald Trump, in his latest speech, from the New York Economic Club luncheon, again signaled nearness to the trade deal with China. However, the Republican leader didn’t refrain from the odds of a substantial increase in Chinese tariffs if they fail to make a deal. Elsewhere, the White House (WH) Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow also emphasized that the US had a very unfair relationship with China through the years so the deal has to be good for the US and US workers. On the other hand, the Fedspeak has also been mixed with sustained support to the current monetary policy but the US President and WH Adviser both kept criticizing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) role. With this, the US 10-year treasury yields stay little changed to 1.92% while its Australian counterparts range between 1.28% and 1.31%. Moving on, traders will now concentrate on November month Westpac Consumer Confidence, expected 2% versus -5.5% prior, ahead of the third quarter (Q3) Wage Price Index data that is likely staying unchanged at 2.3% on YoY and to decline from 0.6% previous to 0.5% on QoQ. It should also be noted that Testimony from the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US will be in the spotlight during the later part of the day. Investors will look for signs to confirm the latest bullish bias concerning the Fed’s monetary policy stand while also keeping eyes on trade headlines. Technical Analysis 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6832 and a rising trend-line since October 02, at 0.6815 now, can keep limiting the pair’s near-term declines. On the contrary, 100-day EMA level of 0.6856 and 0.6900 seem to be the immediate upside barriers.

The Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times, Hu Xijin, in his latest tweet, responded to the latest comments from the US P

The Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times, Hu Xijin, in his latest tweet, responded to the latest comments from the US President Trump delivered in his speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday. Hu tweeted out: “Quite a lot of criticisms and complaints about China from Pres. Trump in his latest speech, but hardly anything new. Similar statements of Senior US officials have board people. It seems this US administration really believes a lie repeated a thousand times becomes truth.”

The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). The Fiber was week on the second day of the week.

EUR/USD is entering the Asian session under heavy pressure, nearing the 1.1000 handle.The level to beat for bears is the 1.0995 support level.  EUR/USD daily chart   The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). The Fiber was week on the second day of the week.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   The market broke below the 1.1016 support level which can lead to an extension of the bearish move towards 1.0995, 1.0965 and 1.0920 support levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    EUR/USD 30-minute chart   EUR/USD is trading below its main SMAs, suggesting a bearish momentum in the near term. Resistance can be seen at the 1.1016, 1.1033, 1.1056 and 1.1079 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.   Additional key levels  
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