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Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Trendline support guards a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs target. Bulls look for a close above the 1500 level ahead o

 Trendline support guards a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs target.Bulls look for a close above the 1500 level ahead of the 1520 level.Technically, the price had been sent lower below the 21 and 50-day moving averages converging and the 7th Oct lows.  Trendline support guards a test of a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs around 1480 will be encouraged. Failures here will open the early August lows down at 1400 the figure. On the upside, bulls seek closes above the 1500 level ahead of the 1520 level and the1535 resistance target.  Daily gold chart  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0708 vs Monday's fix at 7.0725.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0708 vs Monday's fix at 7.0725. 

Despite US-Turkey tension and the increase in the US manufacturing gauge, WTI remains under pressure around $53.55 during early Tuesday.

WTI stays under pressure as the global traders return to desks after an extended weekend.Upbeat US manufacturing data, geopolitical tension concerning Syria support price recovery.Doubts over the US-China trade deal disappoint buyers.Despite US-Turkey tension and the increase in the US manufacturing gauge, WTI remains under pressure around $53.55 during early Tuesday. The energy benchmark fails to benefit from the recent tension in Syria that led to the re-introduction of sanctions on Turkey by the United States (US). The US President recently said to stop $100 billion trade deal with the nation while the Trump Administration diplomats signals reaching NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies to take collective and individual diplomatic and economic measures. Adding to the price positive catalysts is the upbeat surprise release of the US New York (NY) Empire State Manufacturing Index. Even so, the black gold stays on the back foot as uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal weighs on prices. While the US side seems too optimistic about trade deal with the dragon nation after first positive step, Chinese diplomats want further talks before signing a final deal. Moving on, China’s inflation statistics and the return of the US/Canadian and Japanese traders from the extended weekend will offer fresh directives to WTI. It should, however, be noted that trade/political headlines will be the key driver. Technical Analysis While $55.05/10 and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of $55.40 act as nearby resistances, multiple supports around $51.30 and $50.50 could limit near-term declines of the oil benchmark.

The AUD/JPY pair witnessed two-way business following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) October meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT. The pai

AUD/JPY fell 10 pips after the RBA minutes showed the bank is ready to ease further if needed. The decline was short-lived as policymakers debated the cost of easing. The AUD/JPY pair witnessed two-way business following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) October meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT. The pair fell 10 pips 73.27 immediately after the minutes were released only to rise back to levels above 73.40. As of writing, the pair is trading around 73.41, representing marginal losses on the day. Minutes of the meeting showed the RBA cut rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting due to weak global growth outlook, tepid domestic inflation, and considerable labor market spare capacity. The minutes also showed the was ready to consider further easing to support growth and achieve its 2% to 3% inflation target. The dovish headline pushed the AUD lower. However, details revealed the policymakers discussed a range of arguments for not easing at the meeting, including a possible decline in the marginal efficiency of interest rate cuts, the need to reserve firepower for future negative shocks and the possibility of easy policy fueling asset bubbles. Moreover, these factors may keep the RBA from cutting rates in the final two months of 2019. Hence, it's not surprising that AUD/JPY quickly recovered the lost ground to trade above 73.40. Looking forward, the pair may rise to 74.00 if China's producer price inflation, due at 01:30 GMT, blows past expectations and the global equities pick up a strong bid, weakening demand for the anti-risk Yen (JPY).  As of now, the futures on the S&P 500 are reporting a 0.17% gain. Technical levels  

USD/JPY is steady in Tokyo's opening hour, down -0.02% despite the concerns over the 'Phase1' deal made between China and the US on Friday. USD/JPY ha

USD/JPY was steady in Tokyo's opening hour, weighing trade risks and upcoming events. Looking ahead, eyes are on US Industrial Production and Fed speakers. USD/JPY is steady in Tokyo's opening hour, down -0.02% despite the concerns over the 'Phase1' deal made between China and the US on Friday. USD/JPY has advanced from below the 108 handle on the prior optimism but was capped at the highs of 108.62 as sme doubts started to surface.  The lack of firm agreement or details was a cause for concern on Friday and the Chinese process didn't even print the event as headline front-page news. Instead, news was circulating that Cina neds a further meeting prior to putting anything in ink, perhaps to iron out some potential miscommunications. Nevertheless, the Global Times was somewhat more encouraging, suggesting that a breakthrough had been made. Traders await further details and clarification as to just where the US and China are within this agreement.  Meanwhile, the NY Fed Empire State manufacturing survey was released a day early, rising from +2 in September to +4 in Oct. Gieven the holiday thin trade, however, the markets were quiet. The US treasury markets (cash) were closed due to the holiday but futures did traded. Traders expect a fall in the 10-year yield from 1.72% to 1.67%. "Markets are pricing 16bp of easing at the 31 October meeting and a terminal rate of 1.24% (vs 1.88% currently)," analysts at Westpac explained. Looking ahead Looking ahead for the week, eyes will be on US Industrial Production and Fed speakers. "We project industrial production to slow from its solid 0.6% m/m jump in August to 0.2% in September, largely reflecting fading manufacturing output and despite an expected rebound in growth for the utility sector. We project a flat print for manufacturing, as less supportive global demand and continued trade uncertainty continues to drag production lower," analysts at TD Securities explained.  Meanwhile, Fedspeak will involve Bullard in London, Bostic at a community event and George at the event of a payment and Daly in LA. "Annual meetings of the IMF are held in Washington. JP, Goldman and Citigroup all report earnings. The 4th Democratic debate is held in Ohio," analysts at Westpac noted.  USD/JPY levels  

The USD/CNH pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 7.0672, having dropped for the fourth consecutive day on Monday. Notably, Monday

USD/CNH's daily chart shows a head-and-shoulders breakdown. The pair risks falling below 7.00 in the short term.The USD/CNH pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 7.0672, having dropped for the fourth consecutive day on Monday. Notably, Monday's close at 7.0670 confirmed a head-and-shoulders breakdown on the daily chart. The bearish reversal pattern suggests scope for a drop to 6.95 (target as per the measured move method). The breakdown is backed by a below-50 reading on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI). Further, the daily MACD histogram is charting deeper bars below the zero line – a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. Even so, the pair is flashing green at press time and may revisit levels above the former support-turned-resistance of the neckline at 7.0750 before falling below 7.00, as suggested by the head-and-shoulders breakdown. Markets often crowd out weak hands (bears) after a major breakdown. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

With the RBA minutes showing board’s readiness for further rate cuts, AUD/USD declines to intra-day low of 0.6765 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

Dovish RBA minutes add weakness to the AUD/USD pair.Risk-off, NY Empire State Manufacturing gauge keeps USD strong.China inflation data, trade headlines will be followed for fresh impulse.With the RBA minutes showing board’s readiness for further rate cuts, AUD/USD declines to intra-day low of 0.6765 during the Asian session on Tuesday. In its minute statement for October month monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) conveyed board members’ readiness to ease policy further to support growth and jobs. The statement also highlighted downside risk emanating from leading indicators and US-China trade/tech dispute. Read More: The RBA minutes: Board prepared to ease policy further if needed to support growth, jobs Risk tone turns heavy after markets doubt any breakthrough from the US-China’s latest deal as the dragon nation looks for further talks before finalizing any agreement. Also, the measures suggested in the “Phase One” deal seem not too promising to suggest an end of trade war between the world’s two largest economies. With this, the US 10-year Treasury yields decline to 1.70% by the press time. While the risk-off mood has been favoring the US Dollar (USD) an upbeat print of the New York (NY) Empire State Manufacturing Index can also be considered as an additional reason for the greenback’s strength. Investors will now look for China’s Inflation statistics for immediate direction while trade headlines can keep entertaining investors ahead of this week’s Aussie jobs report and Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. TD Securities anticipates upbeat inflation data from China while saying, “We expect a 3.0% y/y outcome for China's CPI in September. Inflation has risen over past months due largely to higher food inflation, in particular pork prices, which were up 23.1% m/m, 47% y/y in August in the wake of the spread of African Swine Disease. This has also helped to push other meat prices higher. However, other CPI components remain soft, resulting in ex-food CPI matching its lowest reading since May 16. We expect a similar picture in September, with little sign of any let up in the rise in pork prices.” Technical Analysis Prices keep lagging behind a three-month-old falling trend-line, at 0.6790 now, which in turn increases the odds for the pair’s further weakness to 0.6740 and 0.6700 rest-points. However, an upside clearance of 0.6790 can trigger pair’s rise towards 0.6850 and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6865.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep both short term and long term rates at very low levels, at least through spring 2020 and will continue expanding mon

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep both short term and long term rates at very low levels, at least through spring 2020 and will continue expanding monetary base until consumer inflation stably exceeds 2%, BOJ's Governor Kuroda said on Tuesday, according to Reuters.  Key quotes (Source: Reuters) Japan's economy has been expanding moderately as a trend, though exports, output, and business sentiment have been affected by the overseas slowdown. Japan's economy likely to continue expanding moderately as a trend, though affected by overseas slowdown for the time being. Consumer inflation is moving around 0.5%. Consumer inflation to accelerate gradually towards 2% on the positive output gap and rises in inflation expectations. Japan's financial system is maintaining stability. BOJ will maintain QQE with yield curve control for as long as needed to achieve 2% inflation in a stable manner. BOJ will continue expanding monetary base until consumer inflation stably exceeds 2%. BOJ will keep short-, long-term rates at current very low levels for an extended period, at least through around spring 2020. Need to pay closer attention to the chance that momentum towards achieving price target will be lost. Won't hesitate to take additional easing steps if risks grow that momentum towards achieving price target will be lost. To monitor the effects of natural disaster on the real economy, maintain functioning and smooth settlement of funds.  

The Reserve Bank of Australia came with the Minutes for the RBA Board’s 1 October meeting. The RBA is prepared to ease further if needed to support gr

The Reserve Bank of Australia came with the Minutes for the RBA Board’s 1 October meeting. Members commenced their discussion of global economic conditions by noting that heightened policy uncertainty was affecting international trade and business investment. This had continued to be apparent in a range of indicators, including new export orders and investment intentions. Conditions in the manufacturing sector had remained subdued, partly because of ongoing US–China trade tensions. These tensions had led to a contraction in bilateral trade between the United States and China, which was resulting in the diversion of some activity to other economies. Members noted that the trade and technology disputes continued to pose significant downside risks to the global economic outlook. The RBA is prepared to ease further if needed to support growth and jobs. AUD/USD is a touch lower (-0.15%) on the main take away points as follows: The Minutes Board judged case for easing at Oct meeting outweighed arguments against a move. Board prepared to ease policy further if needed to support growth, jobs. Reasonable to expect extended period of low rates would be required. Board members noted trend to lower rates globally. Discussed possibility rate cuts might have less impact than in past. Judged lower rates would still have an impact through the A$. Members noted export demand had been supported by lower level of the A$. Discussed risk that low rates would over-inflate home, asset prices. Saw limited risks of excessive borrowing for now, but warranted monitoring. Board discussed case for keeping rate cuts in reserve for emergencies. Decided lower level of rates best way to lessen impact of any negative shocks. Mining, housing sectors seemed to have reached "turning points". No sign as yet that household consumption responding to rate cuts, tax rebates. Strong jobs growth being met by equally strong increase in labour supply. Leading indicators point to slowdown in jobs growth in quarters ahead. China-US trade, tech disputes a significant downside risk to global outlook About the minutes:  The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.      

Following the pair’s bounce off monthly lows, USD/IDR takes the bids to 14,170 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

USD/IDR recovers ahead of Indonesia data.The latest release of a manufacturing gauge from the US supports immediate USD strength.Trade headlines will keep being the key driver.Following the pair’s bounce off monthly lows, USD/IDR takes the bids to 14,170 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair has been in a choppy range since the month started as investors seek fresh clues from Indonesia to firm up odds for further rate cut by the Bank Indonesia (BI). The recent release of the United States’ (US) New York (NY) Empire State Manufacturing Index, 4 versus 1 expected and 2 prior, seems to have triggered the pair’s recovery while domestic political scenario in Indonesia worsens amid attacks on ministers. A Bloomberg story also highlights active plays by the Indonesian elites to strip some of the powers of the President Joko Widodo. It should also be noted that uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal adds to the US Dollar (USD) strength. Investors will now keep an eye over September month Trade Balance, Exports and Imports numbers to better predict another rate cut from the BI after the latest Retail Sales dimmed prospects of any such move soon. Forecasts suggest an increase to $0.10B from $0.08B in the headline Trade Balance while Exports and Imports are likely to recover to -5.84% and -4.2% compared to -9.99% and -15.6% respective priors. Other than Indonesian data, the return of the US traders after the extended weekend will also offer an active day ahead. Technical Analysis A sustained break below 14,085/80 could recall 14,0000 round-figure while 13,880 will be the key for sellers to watch afterward. Meanwhile, 14,270/80 becomes the tough nut to crack for buyers.

Following its failure to rise past near-term key trend lines, USD/CAD witnesses a pullback to 1.3225 during Tuesday’s Asian session.

USD/CAD buyers fall short of clearing 1.3245/50 resistance-confluence.50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-bar SMA adds to the resistance.Following its failure to rise past near-term key trend lines, USD/CAD witnesses a pullback to 1.3225 during Tuesday’s Asian session. Not only a downward slopping trend line connecting tops marked since last week but an upward sloping resistance line (previous support) ranging from early September also contributes to highlighting 1.3245/50 as a tough nut to crack for buyers. As a result, prices are likely to revisit 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September month declines, at 1.3193 ahead of diverting sellers to 1.3160 and 1.3130 rest-points. On the contrary, pair’s successful break above 1.3250 needs to clear 1.3255/60 area comprising 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) to justify its strength in targeting 1.3290 and 1.3310 numbers to the north. USD/CAD 4-hour chart Trend: pullback expected  

EUR/AUD is flat in the early hours of Asia this week ahead of the Tokyo open while traders brace for Chinese data as well as the Reserve Bank of Austr

EUR/AUD in consolidation on key data and event week.EUR/AUD trapped between 20-DMA and 50-DMA.EUR/AUD is flat in the early hours of Asia this week ahead of the Tokyo open while traders brace for Chinese data as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia's previous meeting's Minutes. EUR/AUD is currently trading at 1.6268 and within a tight 20 pip range.  It has been a slow start to the week with the various holidays on Monday, but the tempo will likely pick up starting from today and throughout the week as a number of key data and events kick in.  Key data events taking place this week We start with today's Chinese data dump along with the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes. However, the Australian Lamour Market data will be the key data event with where slowing employment growth will likely spur-up sentiment for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia again. "A number close to the market, however, is unlikely to provide the smoking gun for a Nov cut. Raw historical data for Sep is firmly positive and as such a sharp drop in the headline jobs print is less likely," analysts at TD Securities argued. On the European side of things, the EU Leaders Summit will draw from attention considering Brexit, although other discussions taking place around such topics as EU long-term budget and priorities for the next 5 years should also grab the market's attention with respect to the value of the euro and the European Central Banks task at hand.  EUR/AUD levels  

Having failed to cross 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during its Monday’s recovery, Gold prices pull back to $1,492.

Gold fails to hold onto recovery gains amid a lack of major drivers, greenback recovery.NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly rose, Brexit deal hopes renew.Asian statistics/events, return of the US/Japanese/Canadian traders can provide the active session.Having failed to cross 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during its Monday’s recovery, Gold prices pull back to $1,492 amid the initial Asian trading session on Tuesday. Receding optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal and doubts over the Brexit deal can be considered as major drivers of the yellow metal’s U-turn at the week’s start. However, recently published New York (NY) Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised markets with an upbeat figure and is ascertained to have triggered the Bullion’s pullback. The United States’ (US) manufacturing gauge for October released before time and surpassed market consensus of 1 and prior of 2 with 4. It should also be noted that a lack of fresh clues concerning the US-China trade deal and likely solution to the Irish backstop, as conveyed by the Daily Telegraph, might have contributed to the safe haven’s latest declines. Although trade/Brexit will be the major drivers, China’s inflation numbers and Japan’s Industrial Production will entertain momentum traders as with the return of Japanese/US and Canadian players from the extended weekend. Technical Analysis While a 21-day EMA level of 1,499 acts as an immediate resistance, a downward sloping trend-line since early September, around $1,514 could limit the Bullion’s near-term advances. Alternatively, a rising support-line since August-start, at $1,468, could become the key support to watch during further declines.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for releasing a minute statement of its early-October monetary policy meeting at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for releasing a minute statement of its early-October monetary policy meeting at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday. The central bank met market-wide expectations of announcing a 0.25% cut to its benchmark cash rate during that meeting. However, the rate statement conveyed no clear directions for further such actions despite mentioning that rates will remain low for an extended period. As a result, investors will seek more catalysts that led to such a decision in order to predict any such upcoming moves and predict near-term trade direction of the AUD/USD pair. Despite increasing odds of another rate cut in November, Westpac seems less hopeful for such action even after expecting a 0.50% cut by February 2020: “The Reserve Bank delivered the October rate cut from 1% to 0.75% which had been one of our core forecasts since July. We are confirming our call for a further cut to 0.5% in February next year. We acknowledge that there are risks that this move may come as early as December but dismiss the probability of a move as soon as November despite confident (50%) market pricing.” With this, Aussie traders will be extra attentive to details of minutes while forecasting near-term pair moves.How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?While recent statistics at home and China have failed to lure bulls, switching sentiment concerning the US-China trade deal adds to the Aussie traders’ worries, which in turn pushes sellers to seek confirmation of further rate cuts to firm up short positions while buyers will wait for surprises to reverse the latest pullback. Technically, a clear run-up beyond three-month-old falling trend-line, at 0.6790 now, becomes necessary for the pair to 0.6850 and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.6863. Meanwhile, 0.6740 and 0.6700 can entertain sellers prior to flashing 0.6670 again on their radar.Key NotesAUD/USD: Above 2-DMA, awaiting key data this week, commencing today AUD/USD Analysis: Aussie weaker ahead of RBA Meeting’s MinutesAbout the RBA minutesThe minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

AUD/USD is steady in early Asia following thin trade overnight with it being Columbus day. There was quite a lot for markets to digest overnight but n

AUD/USD in focus this week, with trade war noise and data on the cards.AUD/USD trades at 0.6776, flat on the day so far within a tight range just above 20 DMA.AUD/USD is steady in early Asia following thin trade overnight with it being Columbus day. There was quite a lot for markets to digest overnight but no real game-changers. However, the news that China needed more time to agree details of ‘phase one’ agreement hit sentiment and is a developing theme for the commodity complex to pay close attention to.  Stock markets were weaker in Europe and touch lower in the US as well. US treasury futures traded, implying a fall in the 10-year yield from 1.72% to 1.67%. With a focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian 3-year government bond yields roundtripped from 0.68% to 0.66% and back again, the 10-year yield eking 1.04% to 1.01% to 1.03%. "Markets are pricing 11bp of easing at the 5 Nov RBA meeting, and a terminal rate of 0.42% (RBA cash rate currently at 0.75%)," analysts at Westpac explained.  RBA minutes coming up For the day ahead, we have Australian weekly consumer confidence, RBA minutes, and China’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data. Analysts at Westpac explained that the minutes from the RBA Board’s 1 October meeting main focus should be on "explaining the cash rate cut to 0.75% but there might also be some forward-looking commentary of interest." Looking ahead, the Aussie employment data will be a major event - "Our forecast is roughly in line with the market, consistent with slowing employment growth. A number close to the market, however, is unlikely to provide the smoking gun for a Nov cut. Raw historical data for Sep is firmly positive and as such a sharp drop in the headline jobs print is less likely," analysts at TD Securities explained.  AUD/USD levels  

EUR/JPY stays below 100-day EMA and key horizontal resistance while taking rounds to 119.52 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

EUR/JPY struggles to rise past monthly tops despite bullish MACD.50-day EMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement acts as nearby key support.EUR/JPY stays below 100-day EMA and key horizontal resistance while taking rounds to 119.52 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair fails to justify the bullish signal by the 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, which in turn increases the odds of a pullback to 118.70/65 support-zone including 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of March-September declines. In a case prices keep sliding past-118.65, a six-week-old rising trend line at 117.30 seems crucial for sellers to watch. On the upside, a 100-day EMA level of 119.85 acts as immediate resistance for the pair ahead of highlighting 120.00/05 horizontal barrier including September month top and late-July low. Should there be increased rise beyond 120.05, 121.00 will flash on the bulls’ radar to target. EUR/JPY daily chart Trend: pullback expected  

Despite no fresh clues that restore the confidence of the US-China trade watchers, NZD/USD retraces to 0.6300 amid very early Tuesday morning in Asia.

NZD/USD sellers catch a breath amid a lack of fresh clues, before key China data.US-China trade optimism fades with the dragon nation’s need for more talks.NZ Q3 CPI becomes the major driver of the week.Despite no fresh clues that restore the confidence of the US-China trade watchers, NZD/USD retraces to 0.6300 amid very early Tuesday morning in Asia. The Kiwi pair lost recovery strength on Monday as Chinese diplomats asked for more talks before signing a trade deal with the United States (US). Markets were earlier cheering the “Phase One” deal between the world’s two largest economies and hence got a reason to be careful. The same poured cold water on surprisingly upbeat statements by China’s Global Times’ Editor-In-Chief Hu Xijin. While no clear scheduled is available for further talks between the US and China after both the global powers agreed for initial trade truce, investors will be keeping an eye over the headlines for fresh impulse. For the immediate direction, China’s September month Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be the key to watch. Forecasts suggest CPI remains static at 0.7% on MoM basis while rising to 2.9% from 2.8% on YoY format. Further, PPI might deteriorate further to -1.2% from -0.8% on a Year-on-Year basis. It should be noted that New Zealand’s (NZ) third quarter (Q3) CPI data, up for release on Wednesday, becomes crucial for the Kiwi traders as it can help predict the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) next rate action. The headlines inflation gauge is expected to soften on YoY basis, to 1.4% from 1.7%, and can keep firming odds of another rate cut from the RBNZ. Technical Analysis While 0.6350/55 limits the pair’s immediate upside, 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6371 holds the keys to the quote’s rise towards 0.6400 round-figure. Alternatively, 0.6276/70 support-zone including lows marked on September 03, October 10 and October-start highs can keep the pair’s short-term declines restricted before highlighting 0.6250 and 0.6200 rest-points.

New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (YoY) registered at 1.8%, below expectations (2.1%) in August

US Defence Secretary Mark Esper recently crossed wires while signaling further hardships for Turkey during next week when he is planning to meet NATO allies.

US Defence Secretary Mark Esper recently crossed wires while signaling further hardships for Turkey during next week when he is planning to meet NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies. Key quotes “Will be meeting with NATO allies next week to press them to take collective and individual diplomatic and economic measures.” “Turkey incursion into Syria has resulted in the release of captured Islamic state fighters.” FX implication While no major reaction to the news could be witnessed, the same increases strength to the market’s risk-off mood.

With the Daily Telegraph releasing reports of the potential solution to Northern Irish border problem, GBP/USD rises to 1.2630 at the start of Tuesday.

GBP/USD rises on renewed Brexit optimism.“Cautious optimism” in Brussels and London marked a shift from Barnier’s downbeat comments.UK PM Johnson rolls up the sleeves to get the deal as the EU summit comes closer.With the Daily Telegraph releasing reports of the potential solution to Northern Irish border problem, GBP/USD rises to 1.2630 at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. In a marked shift from the European Union’s (EU) chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s downbeat comments, the Daily Telegraph recently released a news report saying that sources in Brussels and London turn “cautiously optimistic” about the Brexit deal as they’re nearing a potential solution to the Northern Irish border problem. Leaders at the EU and the United Kingdom (UK) have been struggling over the Irish backstop for years and news of a potential solution offers a boost to the odds of a Brexit deal, which in turn helps the GBP/USD to recover earlier losses based on doubt of any such agreements. Although no official confirmation of the news has been received, the UK Prime Minister’s (PM) cancellation of Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, in order to avoid leaks of delicate talks, flashes positive signals to the developments. It should, however, be noted that the UK has very little time before October 17-18 EU summit and Irish officials are also downbeat of any Brexit solutions. This might be the case for TD Securities to say, “We remain cautious here and think the FX market has gotten a little ahead of itself. We note cable has shed all of its recent risk premium and now screens a touch rich on our valuation framework. We think this leaves GBP vulnerable to a significant correction back toward 1.22 if market optimism reverses once again.” While Brexit news will be the key drives, the UK job reports will also be important catalyst to watch for the day. Technical Analysis 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2715 continues to act like a tough nut to crack for buyers that holds the key to pair’s run-up towards June month top surrounding 1.2785. On the downside break below September high nearing 1.2580 could recall sub-1.2500 area on the chart.
Colombus Day on Monday yields limited volatility on the EUR/USD. Monday’s trading ends virtually unchanged with the Fiber still hanging above the 1.1000 figure.   EUR/USD daily chart     On the daily chart, the shared currency is trading in a bear trend below its 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DSMAs). However, last week, the Fiber broke above a multi-week trendline and tested the 50 SMA. This Monday, the spot consolidated last week’s gains below the 50 SMA.    EUR/USD four-hour chart     The Euro is trading above the main SMAs, suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term. EUR/USD is consolidating last week’s advance above the 1.1000/1.1020 support zone and the 200 SMA. The 1.1067 level is the level to beat for bulls if they intend to reach the 1.1090 resistance on the way up, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.   EUR/USD 30-minute chart     The Fiber is ending Monday virtually unchanged. A daily close below the 1.1000 handle could switch the bias to bearish in the short and medium term.   Additional key levels   

It was a U.S. Columbus Day holiday on Wall Street and action was limited. However, benchmarks ended lower on prospects of the so-called 'Phase-1' deal

The S&P 500 lost a marginal 0.1% to end near 2,966.DJIA, dropped 29 points, or 0.1%, to finish around 26,787.The Nasdaq ended lower by 0.1% to end near 8,049.It was a U.S. Columbus Day holiday on Wall Street and action was limited. However, benchmarks ended lower on prospects of the so-called 'Phase-1' deal between the US and china breaking down before even getting started. Beijing would not sign off on an agreement until further details were worked out.  The S&P 500 lost a marginal 0.1% to end near 2,966 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, dropped 29 points, or 0.1%, to finish around 26,787, based on preliminary numbers. Nasdaq Composite ended lower by 0.1% to end near 8,049. Trade deal is not a done deal As for the US and Chinese trade deal, the market understands that the deal agreed last week Trump and the Chinese is not completely a done deal: "Opinion remains mixed as to whether the Chinese offer this week to buy additional US agricultural goods and the US’ decision to suspend additional tariffs represent the beginning of actual, real progress, or is merely a plaster as US elections get closer. Overnight China said it wanted more talks before signing the deal, but an optimistic tweet from China’s Global Times Editor-in-Chief soothed market nerves," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  DJIA levels The index bearish pin-bars on the daily chart and price leaning on trendline resistance turned support casts a negative outlook and it seems as though the  27500s was a touch too ambitious for the open this week, leaving the July highs over the horizon, for the time being. Bears will otherwise now seek a close back below the trendline with a focus back on the 200-DMA down in the 26400s.
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