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Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Oil producers in the US are expected to cut the oil output by about 2 million barrels per day, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing a report published

Oil producers in the US are expected to cut the oil output by about 2 million barrels per day, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing a report published by the US Energy Department. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette confirmed that he will be participating in the virtual G20 meeting on Friday to talk about stabilizing global oil markets. Market reaction The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continued to push lower on these headlines and was last seen trading near $26, erasing around 1% on a daily basis.

Data released on Tuesday, showed the Small Business Optimism Index tumbled to 8.1 points in March. Analysts at Wells Fargo, point out small business c

Data released on Tuesday, showed the Small Business Optimism Index tumbled to 8.1 points in March. Analysts at Wells Fargo, point out small business confidence has tumbled, as business owners ponder when their businesses will reopen and when customers will return. Key Quotes:  “The drop in confidence reported in March was the largest in the survey’s history, as nine of the 10 components fell and the Uncertainty Index rose 12 points.” “Expectations of higher real sales over the next six months declined 31 points to -12%, the largest decline on record, while expectations of better overall business conditions in the next six months fell 17 points to 5%.” “Employment and small business confidence should fall much more in April. The NFIB also conducted a special COVID-19 survey on March 30, which found that 92% of small business owners reported a negative impact from the virus, up from 76% 10 days earlier and just 23% 20 days earlier.” “Among the negatively affected firms, 80% reported lower sales, 31% reported supply chain disruptions and 23% were worried about their employees’ physical health. The fundamental issue for many firms is solvency—how long can they stay afloat given drastically lower sales? Half of small businesses reported they can survive for no more than two months under current conditions, with another third saying they could last three to six months.”“Small businesses are bearing a disproportionate part of the burden from stay-at-home orders, and providing timely relief is critical to heading off a surge of business failures that would make the subsequent economic recovery much more difficult.”

EUR/JPY is consolidating the recent bear while bouncing from near 2020 lows as the spot is trading below the main daily SMAs (simple moving averages) suggestin

EUR/JPY bounces from near 2020 lows and challenges 118.75 resistance. The overall bias remains bearish for EUR/JPY.    EUR/JPY daily chart   EUR/JPY is consolidating the recent bear while bouncing from near 2020 lows as the spot is trading below the main daily SMAs (simple moving averages) suggesting an overall bearish bias in the currency cross.   EUR/JPY four-hour chart   Euro/Yen is challenging the 118.75 resistance and the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart as bulls are looking for a continuation up to the 119.50 and 120.00 hanlde. However, given the overall bearish bias, it remains to be seen if the spot can overcome 119.75. On the flip side, sellers will keep their eyes on the 118.00 and 117.50 price levels to the downside.    Additional key levels  

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced new easing measures regarding collateral. According to the statement, “ECB adopts an unprecedented set of co

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced new easing measures regarding collateral. According to the statement, “ECB adopts an unprecedented set of collateral measures to mitigate the tightening of financial conditions across the euro area." Measures include a temporary increase in the Eurosystem’s risk tolerance in order to support credit to the economy, easing conditions for the use of credit claims as collateral, the introduction of a general reduction of collateral valuation haircuts, and a waiver to accept Greek sovereign debt instruments as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations. The ECB mentioned it “will assess further measures to temporarily mitigate the effect on counterparties’ collateral availability from rating downgrades”. “The Eurosystem is increasing its risk tolerance to support the provision of credit via its refinancing operations, particularly by lowering collateral valuation haircuts for all assets consistently.”  More from the statement:  “First, the Governing Council decided on a set of collateral measures to facilitate an increase in bank funding against loans to corporates and households. This will be achieved by expanding the use of credit claims as collateral, in particular through the potential expansion of the additional credit claims (ACCs) frameworks. The ACC framework provides the possibility to National Central Banks to enlarge the scope of eligible credit claims for counterparties in their jurisdictions. This includes the possibility to accept loans with lower credit quality, loans to other types of debtors, not accepted in the ECB’s general framework, and foreign-currency loans.” “Second, the Governing Council further adopted the following temporary measures:
- A lowering of the level of the non-uniform minimum size threshold for domestic credit claims to EUR 0 from EUR 25,000 previously to facilitate the mobilisation as collateral of loans from small corporate entities;
-An increase, from 2.5% to 10%, in the maximum share of unsecured debt instruments issued by any single other banking group in a credit institution’s collateral pool. This will enable counterparties to benefit from a larger share of such assets.
-A waiver of the minimum credit quality requirement for marketable debt instruments issued by the Hellenic Republic for acceptance as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations.” “Third, the Governing Council decided to temporarily increase its risk tolerance level in credit operations through a general reduction of collateral valuation haircuts by a fixed factor of 20%. This adjustment aims to contribute to the collateral easing measures while maintaining a consistent degree of protection across collateral asset types, albeit at a temporarily lower level.” Market reaction  The EUR/USD pair remains off highs, holding on to strong daily gains trading around 1.0890. It was unaffected by the ECB announcement so far. The key driver on Tuesday continues to be US dollar weakness. 

The USD/MXN dropped during the American session to 23.81, reaching the lowest level since last Thursday. On Monday it hit a record high at 25.71. Vola

Mexican peso recovers for the second day in a row versus the US dollar. USD/MXN moves off all-time highs, corrects lower on dollar’s weakness. The USD/MXN dropped during the American session to 23.81, reaching the lowest level since last Thursday. On Monday it hit a record high at 25.71. Volatility remains at extreme levels.  During the last hours, USD/MXN bounced to the 24.00 but with the bearish tone intact. The very short-term technical outlook favors the downside, as price remains under an uptrend line seen at 24.30. If it rises back above, the bearish pressure will likely ease. On the downside, the immediate support is located around 23.80/85, below the next one emerges at 23.45.  The slide on Tuesday is being driven by a decline of the US dollar across the board. An improvement in market sentiment weakened the demand for the greenback that is having the worst performance in more than a week. Not even higher US yields are helping the greenback. In Wall Street, the Dow Jones gains 2.50% and the Nasdaq 1.50%.  Among emerging market currencies, the biggest gainer is the South African rand (USD/ZAR down 2.30%) followed by the Czech corona (USD/CZK -2.25%) and then comes USD/MXN with a decline of 2.30%.  Technical levels    

The United States and Canada need to play a role when determining oil production cuts, Iranian Oil Minister Zangeneh said on Tuesday. "There needs to

The United States and Canada need to play a role when determining oil production cuts, Iranian Oil Minister Zangeneh said on Tuesday. "There needs to be an agreement on production numbers before any future meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, the minister added. Crude oil struggles to stay in the positive territory The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged lower during the American session on Tuesday and was last seen trading at $26.15, erasing 0.45% on a daily basis.

WTI consolidates last week’s advance as WTI is weighing the Trump tweet suggesting that a Saudi-Russian deal has been concluded.

WTI is consolidating last week’s advance while trading below the 30.00 mark.Support can emerge near 24.00 and 22.00 levels.   WTI daily chart   WTI consolidates last week’s advance as WTI is weighing the Trump tweet suggesting that a Saudi-Russian deal has been concluded.    WTI four-hour chart   After regaining some strength last week, WTI is consolidating the advance below 30.00 resistance. As the main trend remains bearish, WTI could lose steam as bears eye the 24.00, 22.00 and 20.00 price levels while the main resistance is the 30.00 handle.   Additional key levels  

The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the UK increased to 55,242 as of Tuesday morning from 51,608 on Monday, the health ministry announc

The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the UK increased to 55,242 as of Tuesday morning from 51,608 on Monday, the health ministry announced on Tuesday, as reported by Reuters.  The death toll in the country rose by 786, the largest single-day increase, to 6,159. Market reaction Despite these gloomy figures, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is still up more than 2% on a daily basis at 5,697 points. In the meantime, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2335, adding 0.86%.

Coronavirus-related fatalities in the state of New York rose by 731 to 5,489 on Tuesday, Governor Andrew Cuomo said during the daily press briefing. A

Coronavirus-related fatalities in the state of New York rose by 731 to 5,489 on Tuesday, Governor Andrew Cuomo said during the daily press briefing. Although this was the largest single-day increase so far, Cuomo said that he believes the state was reaching a plateau in the total number of hospitalizations. "You are not going to end the virus before you start restarting life," Cuomo added and called for mass testing. Risk rally continues Major equity indexes in the US continue to push higher on Tuesday. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.34%, the S&P 500 was adding 1.88% and the Nasdaq Composite was gaining 0.7%.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US declined by 6.2 points in April to 47.8 from 53.9 in March. "The six-month economic outlook index, whic

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell sharply in April. Major equity indexes in the US stay in positive territory.The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US declined by 6.2 points in April to 47.8 from 53.9 in March. "The six-month economic outlook index, which went from strongly optimistic to modestly pessimistic at the start of March, turned downright gloomy," the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) said in its press release. "The economic outlook gauge tumbled 9.8 points to 38, the lowest level since October 2011. The outlook index for personal finances sank 11 points to 50.2, remaining barely optimistic. Still, any optimism at this moment is notable." Market reaction Although Wall Street's main indexes retreated slightly from earlier highs, they remain in the positive territory. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were up 1.8% and 1.35%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite was adding 0.4%. 

New Zealand GDT Price Index increased to 1.2% from previous -3.9%

After gaining more than $60 on Monday, the troy ounce of the precious metal struggled to continue to gain value on Tuesday. As of writing, the XAU/USD

US Dollar Index drops below 100 on Tuesday.Wall Street's main indexes build on Monday's strong gains.10-year US Treasury bond yield adds more than 10%.After gaining more than $60 on Monday, the troy ounce of the precious metal struggled to continue to gain value on Tuesday. As of writing, the XAU/USD pair was trading at 1651, erasing 0.75% on a daily basis. Risk rally remains intact Although the USD selloff intensified on Tuesday with the US Dollar Index dropping below the 100 handle erasing nearly 1% on the day, the pair reversed its direction as the upbeat market mood made it difficult for gold to find demand. Following Monday's impressive rally, Wall Street's main indexes opened the day sharply higher on Tuesday. At the moment, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are up more than 1% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite is adding only 0.3%. Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield was last seen rising 12% on the day at 0.759% to reflect the strengthening risk appetite.  There won't be any significant macroeconomic data releases from the US in the remainder of the day and the risk perception is likely to continue to impact the pair's movements. Commenting on gold's recent performance, “gold has seen an exact move to our long-held ‘measured base objective’ at $1700/05," said Credit Suisse analysts. "Whilst we suspect further consolidation can emerge here, as we have repeatedly highlighted our core outlook stays bullish and we look for a move above $1705 in due course, with resistance next at $1796.”  Technical levels to watch for  

The G20 energy ministers will be holding an extraordinary meeting on Friday to address the energy market stability, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citin

The G20 energy ministers will be holding an extraordinary meeting on Friday to address the energy market stability, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing an official statement released by Saudi Arabia. "G20 energy ministers will also act to alleviate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy markets," the statement further read. Market reaction Crude oil's reaction to this announcement was largely muted. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $26.40, adding 0.5% on a daily basis.

Despite some recent falls, analysts at Credit Suisse believe the EUR/GBP pair can find a floor and rebound. Key quotes “EUR/GBP has fallen sharply aft

Despite some recent falls, analysts at Credit Suisse believe the EUR/GBP pair can find a floor and rebound. Key quotes “EUR/GBP has fallen sharply after completing a top, but we see support well layered from the 200-day average at 0.8752 down to the ‘neckline’ to its early year base at 0.8609. Our bias is to look for a fresh floor here and for the risk to turn higher again.” “Above 0.8994 is needed to add weight to this view, for a move back above 0.9300.” “Below 0.8609 though would suggest weakness can extend further and probably not just as a result of a weaker EUR, but also a stronger GBP, with support next at 0.8340.”  

The battle against coronavirus is nearing the end of the beginning, and it is time to look at exit strategies. Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, exa

The battle against coronavirus is nearing the end of the beginning, and it is time to look at exit strategies. Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, examines the implications for different currencies. Key quotes “Eurozone countries have suffered most of the global deaths, and every improvement in these three fields may fasten the opening up of the economy and boost the euro.”  “The UK is behind on several factors, but the impact will likely be straightforward for the pound.” “The US dollar, and especially the Japanese yen, are safe-haven currencies and have different behavior. They may lose ground in response to the good news.”  “If the US eases nears easing restrictions, investors may abandon the safety of the greenback and move to currencies deemed riskier. Conversely, any setback in the US may lead to traders clinging onto the dollar.”  

EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0906 Today Daily Change 0.0113 Today Daily Change % 1.05 Today daily open 1.0793 Trends Daily SMA20 1.0969 Daily

EUR/USD is rebounding from the April’s lows while challenging the 1.0900 figure.The correction up can extend towards 1.0970 and 1.1044 price levels.   EUR/USD daily chart    EUR/USD is rebounding from the 1.0800 figure while trading below its main DMA (daily simple moving average) as DXY (US dollar index) is losing steam this Tuesday.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD is challenging the 1.0920 resistance near the 50/100 SMAs on the four-hour chart as the spot is rebounding from the April’s lows. A break above the above-mentioned level could lead to further advances towards the 1.0970 and 1.1044 price levels while support can be expected near the 1.0885, 1.0839 and 1.0800 levels.      Resistance: 1.0920, 1.0970, 1.1044Support: 1.0885, 1.0839, 1.0800    Additional key levels  

Turkey Treasury Cash Balance declined to -40.45B in March from previous -8.97B

The USD/CHF pair continued losing ground through the early North-American session and refreshed daily lows, below the 0.9700 mark in the last hour. Ha

USD/CHF came under some intense selling pressure on Tuesday amid weaker USD.The ongoing downfall seemed rather unaffected by a strong rally in the equity markets.Surging US bond yields failed to impress bulls or stall the pair’s sharp intraday slide.The USD/CHF pair continued losing ground through the early North-American session and refreshed daily lows, below the 0.9700 mark in the last hour. Having faced rejection near the 0.9800 round-figure mark, the pair witnessed a dramatic turnaround from the vicinity of the very important 200-day SMA and the steep fall was solely sponsored by broad-based US dollar weakness. Signs that the coronavirus pandemic may be reaching its peak in Europe and the United States triggered some aggressive USD long-unwinding trade, with bulls failing to gain any respite from surging US Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, the sharp intraday slide to multi-day lows seemed rather unaffected by a strong follow-through rally in the global equity markets, which tends to undermine demand for safe-haven currencies, including the Swiss franc. Apart from this, possibilities of some short-term trading stops being triggered below 100-hour SMA, around the 0.9735 region, aggravated the intraday bearish pressure and contributed to the ongoing downfall to multi-day lows. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any buying at lower levels as investors assess the impact of the pandemic on the global economy, which should continue to benefit the USD's status as the global reserve currency. Technical levels to watch  

The economic activity in Canada's private sector contracted at a strong pace in March with the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index plummeting to 26 (season

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index fell to 26 in March from 54.1.USD/CAD pair rebounded from lows on the disappointing data. The economic activity in Canada's private sector contracted at a strong pace in March with the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index plummeting to 26 (seasonally adjusted) from 54.1 in February. This reading missed the market expectation of 41 by a wide margin.  Further details of the publication revealed that the Employment Index slumped to 26.8 from 54.7 and the Supplier Deliveries Index dropped to 17.7 from 41.8. Market reaction The USD/CAD pair recovered slightly from the daily low it set at 1.3945 and was last seen trading at 1.3990, erasing 0.85% on a daily basis.

Risk assets are running hot as our pandemic sentiment gauge reads 'hope', giving rise to the narrative that the worst is now behind us, per TD Securit

Risk assets are running hot as our pandemic sentiment gauge reads 'hope', giving rise to the narrative that the worst is now behind us, per TD Securities. Key quotes “Containment efforts could start to be reconsidered as early as this month as the bulk of the US population would be 50% past peak hospital utilization.” “Our real-time commodity demand indicator contrasts with the optimistic view and continues to show demand hovering near the lows with strong downside momentum.”  “While China continues to re-open, its ability to export will be hampered by the still cascading shock as containment efforts damage Western economies, which further inflicts damage on commodity demand.”  “Copper is benefiting from the supply side with some virus-related disruptions.”  

United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) declined to 47.8 in April from previous 53.9

Unlike the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 is holding long-term support levels, but the broader risk is still seen lower, economists at Credit Suisse apprise. Key

Unlike the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 is holding long-term support levels, but the broader risk is still seen lower, economists at Credit Suisse apprise. Key quotes “Unless we can see a recovery back above the 200-day average, currently at 8192, our bias is to view the broader risk still to the downside for a move back to 6937. A sustained move below here would raise the prospect of a more sustained bear trend.” “A close above the 200-day at 8192 should ease bearish pressure, allowing a deeper recovery to 8600/05, but with this then expected to cap.” “Should we see a sustained move below 6937, this would see these key long-term supports break, reinforcing the scenario we are in a more severe downtrend. We would then see support next at 6406, the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2008/2020 bull market, 16% below current levels.”  

The number of Job Openings in the US fell to 6.9 million on the last business day of February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its lat

US JOLTS Job Openings edged lower to 6.9 million in February.US Dollar Index stays deep in red below 100 handle.The number of Job Openings in the US fell to 6.9 million on the last business day of February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report on Tuesday. This reading came in higher than the market expectation of 6.6 million. "Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively," the BLS added in its press release.  Market reaction The US Dollar Index largely ignored this data and was last seen down 1% on the day at 99.80.  

United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 96.4, below expectations (104.6) in March

United States JOLTS Job Openings registered at 6.882M above expectations (6.6M) in February

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a below expectations (41) in March: Actual (26)

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index dipped from previous 53.2 to 28.2 in March

After closing the first trading day of the week with strong gains, Wall Street's main indexes opened sharply higher on Tuesday boosted by the upbeat m

S&P 500 Energy Index gains more than 6% on Monday.Slowdown in rate of new coronavirus infections and deaths keep sentiment upbeat.White House economic adviser Kudlow says administration is internally planning reopening of economy.After closing the first trading day of the week with strong gains, Wall Street's main indexes opened sharply higher on Tuesday boosted by the upbeat market mood on an apparent slowdown in the rate of new coronavirus infections and fatalities. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 3.15% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were adding 2.7% and 2%, respectively. Energy shares continue to rise Earlier in the day, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the Trump administration was internally planning for the reopening of the economy and added that they were looking to do so as soon as health experts gave the green light.  Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Energy Index is up 6.4% on Tuesday to lead the rally. Meanwhile, boosted by a 9% increase in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, the Financials Index is up 4.75% as the second-best performing sector. 

EUR/USD has seen a rollercoaster ride in March but remains below short-, medium- and long-term averages and the trend stays seen lower, in the opinion

EUR/USD has seen a rollercoaster ride in March but remains below short-, medium- and long-term averages and the trend stays seen lower, in the opinion of analysts at Credit Suisse. Key quotes “A clear break of long-term trend support at 1.0765 should see support next at 1.0635, then the 2017 low at 1.0341. Although this should be respected, our bias is for a break in due course, with support next at 0.9900, the 78.6% retracement of the entire 2000/20008 bull trend.” “Resistance at 1.1150 now ideally caps. Only above 1.1495 would set an important base.”  

The better tone in both the shared currency and the quid is prompting EUR/GBP to gyrate around the 0.8800 neighbourhood without a clear direction for

EUR/GBP exchanges gains with losses near the 0.8800 mark.Dollar-selling sustains the upside in both euro and sterling.Markets’ attention remains on the Eurogroup meetings later today.The better tone in both the shared currency and the quid is prompting EUR/GBP to gyrate around the 0.8800 neighbourhood without a clear direction for the time being. EUR/GBP looks to COVID-19, BoJo, Eurogroup EUR/GBP seems to have met some decent support in the mid-0.8700s so far, area coincident with the always-critical 200-day SMA, coming under moderate downside pressure after hitting fresh yearly tops beyond 0.94 the figure in mid-March. In fact, the recent and strong recovery of the British pound put the cross under heavy pressure, exacerbated at the same time by the offered bias surrounding the European currency on the back of dollar-buying. In the meantime, investors continue to follow the news surrounding PM Boris Johnson after he was diagnosed with coronavirus and later hospitalized in ICU. Later in the day, the Eurogroup meeting has gained unusual attention, as officials are expected to debate some form of joint debt issuance in order to counteract the impact of the COVID-19 on the region, particularly in Spain and Italy. EUR/GBP key levels The cross is gaining 0.13% at 0.8829 and faces the next resistance at 0.8997 (21-day SMA) seconded by 0.9324 (2019 high Aug.12) and finally .9499 (2020 high Mar.19). On the flip side, a drop below 0.8751 (200-day SMA) would expose 0.8670 (55-day SMA) and then 0.8596 (100-day SMA).

The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild negative bias through the early North-American session, albeit has been showing some resilience below 50-hour SMA.

USD/JPY attracted some dip-buying near 38.2% Fibo. level.The technical set-up supports prospects for additional gains.The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild negative bias through the early North-American session, albeit has been showing some resilience below 50-hour SMA. This is closely followed by the daily swing lows, around the 108.70-65 region, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 111.72-106.92 recent slide. The mentioned region is likely to act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders, below which the pair could slide further towards the 108.25 region (100-hour SMA). Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly/daily charts have managed to hold in the bullish territory and support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. However, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 109.30-40 supply zone (50% Fibo. and the overnight swing high) before placing fresh bullish bets. Above the mentioned barrier, the pair is likely to head towards testing 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 109.80 region, before aiming towards the key 110.00 psychological mark. USD/JPY 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

The oil price collapse and operational shutdowns mandated by federal and provincial governments due to the coronavirus pandemic are not surprisingly w

The oil price collapse and operational shutdowns mandated by federal and provincial governments due to the coronavirus pandemic are not surprisingly weighing on Canada's economic growth and employment, per National Bank of Canada. Key quotes “The Canadian economy likely entered recession in the first quarter of 2020 as evidenced by soaring employment insurance claims. Those concerning numbers on claims will be followed by less timely data on GDP showing a massive contraction in March courtesy of forced shutdowns.”  “Taking account of closures ordered by the government, our bottom-up analysis suggests a sharp decline of GDP can be expected in Q1 followed by a steeper drop of over 30% annualized in Q2, before a subsequent rebound in the second half of the year.”  “2020 real GDP growth is pegged at -4.8%, the largest annual contraction on records going back to 1961.”  

The OPEC+ group, the cartel plus Russia is scheduled to hold a video conference on Thursday to discuss how to bolster oil prices. Joseph Trevisani, an

The OPEC+ group, the cartel plus Russia is scheduled to hold a video conference on Thursday to discuss how to bolster oil prices. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, recaps the oil market situation. Key quotes “The war of threats between Saudi Arabia and Russia sent prices already under heavy pressure from the expected demand destruction, cascading lower. The finances of both nations are heavily dependent on oil revenues.” “The US finds itself in the unusual position of agreeing with its two largest oil competitors, countries its shale production had dethroned as the world’s leading driller, an achievement touted by the Trump administration. Price pressures have made common cause.” “Many US shale companies are heavily leveraged and a prolonged period of low prices could do serious damage to the industry. The bankruptcy rate would soar.” “Even for a market long inured to violent movement, the turnaround among the major players has been remarkable.”  

The S&P 500 is reversing from the 2020 lows as the market mood is improving across the board. Bulls seem to be back in control as the 2700 resistance got broke

S&P 500 breaks the 2700 mark to the upside. There is potential for further advances towards the 2800 and 2900 figures.    S&P 500 daily chart   The S&P 500 is reversing from the 2020 lows as the market mood is improving across the board. Bulls seem to be back in control as the 2700 resistance got broken to the upside opening scope for a continuation up to the 2800, 2900 and 3000 levels on the way up while support can be expected near the 2700, 2600 and 2540 levels.    Additional key levels   

Gold has achieved the ‘measured base objective’ at $1700/05, but analysts at Credit Suisse stay bullish on the yellow metal. Key quotes “Gold has seen

Gold has achieved  the ‘measured base objective’ at $1700/05, but analysts at Credit Suisse stay bullish on the yellow metal. Key quotes “Gold has seen an exact move to our long-held ‘measured base objective’ at $1700/05. Whilst we suspect further consolidation can emerge here, as we have repeatedly highlighted our core outlook stays bullish and we look for a move above $1705 in due course, with resistance next at $1796.”  “Big picture, we continue to look for new highs. Below key price support at $1453/46 is needed to change this view as this would mark a top, turning the risk lower as well as ending our long-held bullish outlook.” “Extreme long positioning in gold is starting to unwind, which we see as constructive for our bullish view.”  

EUR/USD is en route to 1.0950, a critical Fibonacci resistance level, as German’s February Industrial Production came better than anticipated, Valeria

EUR/USD is en route to 1.0950, a critical Fibonacci resistance level, as German’s February Industrial Production came better than anticipated, Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet reports. Key quotes “Germany released this Tuesday, February Industrial Production, which rose by 0.3% MoM against an expected backdrop of 0.9%. The US macroeconomic calendar has little to offer today.” “EUR/USD is bullish, now above the 1.0900 threshold and pressuring the daily high ahead of the US opening. The pair is also surpassing the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run, with the next Fibonacci resistance at 1.0950.” “In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has advanced beyond a now flat 20 SMA, which converges with the 61.8% retracement of the same advance at 1.0830. Technical indicators advance within positive levels, supporting additional gains towards the mentioned static resistance level.” “Support levels: 1.0875 1.0830 Resistance levels: 1.0910 1.0950”  

Following the sharp selloff to 2009 lows, XAG/USD bounced up as the Fed introduced a limitless Quantitative Easing (QE) in response to the coronavirus crisis.

XAG/USD bounced up sharply from the 2020 lows as the Federal Reserve introduced its largest stimulus package in history.The level to beat for buyers is the 15.50 resistance.  Silver daily chart   Following the sharp selloff to 2009 lows, XAG/USD bounced up as the Fed introduced a limitless Quantitative Easing (QE) in response to the coronavirus crisis.    Silver four-hour chart    Silver is about to challenge the 15.50 resistance and the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart as bulls remain in control while a break above this level should inroduce scope for further advances towards the 16.20 and 16.60 levels on the way up. On the flip side, XAG/USD could find support near the 15.00, 14.50 and 14.00 price levels.      Resistance: 15.50, 16.20, 16.60Support: 15.00, 14.50, 14.00    Additional key levels  

The Trump administration is looking to reopen the economy as soon as health experts give greenlight, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on

The Trump administration is looking to reopen the economy as soon as health experts give greenlight, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday. "The administration is planning internally for the economy reopening," Kudlow added and said that the Federal Reserve was sitting with the "ultimate bazooka" with regards to helping the economy. Market sentiment Risk-on flows continue to dominate the financial markets on Tuesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was down 0.9% on the day at 99.90 and Wall Street's main indexes were on track to open the day with strong gains.

Gold reversed an early dip to the $1644 region and is currently placed in the neutral territory, well within the striking distance of multi-week tops

Gold witnessed some intraday pullback from multi-week tops amid improving risk sentiment.The prevailing USD selling bias extended some support and helped limit the early downtick.Gold reversed an early dip to the $1644 region and is currently placed in the neutral territory, well within the striking distance of multi-week tops set earlier this Tuesday. The global equity markets enjoyed a second day of strong gains on Tuesday amid signs that the coronavirus pandemic may be reaching its peak in Europe and the United States. The risk-on mood dented the precious metal's safe-haven status and led to some intraday pullback. Despite the latest optimism, concerns over an imminent global recession continued fueling expectations of a prolonged period of low/negative interest rates and aggressive stimulus measures. This eventually extended some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. This coupled with some US dollar long-unwinding further underpinned the dollar-denominated commodity and helped limit the early downtick. Meanwhile, surging US Treasury bond yields failed to impress the USD bulls, albeit might turn out to be the only factor capping gains. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, the commodity remains at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, developments surrounding the coronavirus might influence the market risk sentiment and produce some meaningful trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 5.3% (April 3) vs previous 6.3%

United States Redbook Index (MoM): 0.9% (April 3) vs previous 1.3%

"Over 3,000 lenders are participating in the small business lending program," US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told Fox Business Network on Tuesday. "The

"Over 3,000 lenders are participating in the small business lending program," US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told Fox Business Network on Tuesday. "There will be money for small business payrolls, if we need more we'll go back to Congress," Mnuchin added. "President Trump is looking at areas of the country where the economy can be reopened." Market reaction The upbeat market mood continues to weigh on the greenback on Tuesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was down 1% on the day at 99.80.

Chile Trade Balance up to $1243M in March from previous $821M

The USD/CAD pair fell to its lowest level in more than a week at 1.3991 on Tuesday before staging a modest recovery in the last hours. As of writing,

WTI erases portion of early gains, trades below $27.US Dollar Index drops below 100 handle in early American session.Coming up: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism from US and Ivery PMI from Canada.The USD/CAD pair fell to its lowest level in more than a week at 1.3991 on Tuesday before staging a modest recovery in the last hours. As of writing, the pair was down 0.66% on the day at 1.4015.  Crude oil recovery loses steam Rising crude oil prices and the upbeat market mood helped the CAD preserve its strength against the greenback on Tuesday. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $27 on hopes of OPEC+ cutting the crude oil output to balance the market. However, with some reports claiming that OPEC+ was discussing a reduction in production for only three months forced the WTI to erase a large portion of its daily gains. As of writing, the WTI was trading at $26.55, still adding around 1% on the day. On the other hand, with risk-on flows dominating the markets for the second straight day, the greenback is struggling to find demand to allow the pair to remain near its lows. At the moment, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, is down 0.9% on the day at 99.90. Later in the day, the Ivey PMI data from Canada and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. However, investors are likely to continue to react to changes in crude oil prices and the greenback's market valuation. Technical levels to watch for  

The GBP/JPY cross built on its goodish intraday positive move and spiked to over one-week tops, around the 134.65 region in the last hour. A combinati

GBP/JPY reversed an early dip and turned higher for the second straight session.The risk-on undermined the JPY’s safe-haven demand and remained supportive.The UK PM Spokesman’s latest update provided an additional boost to the GBP.The GBP/JPY cross built on its goodish intraday positive move and spiked to over one-week tops, around the 134.65 region in the last hour. A combination of supporting factors assisted the cross to gain traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday and rally around 175 pips from the Asian session swing lows to sub-133.00 levels. The British pound witnessed some selling during the early trading action on Tuesday after the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved to intensive care after his coronavirus symptoms worsened. A solid recovery in the global risk sentiment, amid signs that the pandemic may be reaching its peak, undermined the Japanese yen's safe-haven demand and extended some initial support to the cross. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden pick up over the past hour or so came in reaction to the UK PM spokesman's update that Johnson is not on a ventilator and is receiving standard oxygen treatment. The spokesman further added that the PM remains in good spirits and has not been diagnosed with pneumonia nor is required mechanical ventilation or non-invasive respiratory support. The cross has now moved to the top end of a near two-week-old trading range. Hence, some follow-through buying might be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for additional gains. Technical levels to watch  

USD/INR is retreating from all-time highs as the spot challenges the 75.50 support. USD is weak this Tuesday weighing on USD/INR as bears would be looking for

The US dollar is easing from record highs as DXY (US dollar index) pulls back down.USD/INR is challenging the 75.50 support level.    USD/INR daily chart   USD/INR is retreating from all-time highs as the spot challenges the 75.50 support. USD is weak this Tuesday weighing on USD/INR as bears would be looking for a break below the above-mentioned level while support is seen near 74.50 and 73.50 on the way down. Resistance is seen near 76.50 and the 77.00 figure.   Additional key levels  

Alvin Liew at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research assessed the latest US NFP figures. Key Quotes “The US economy ended its 113 consecutive

Alvin Liew at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research assessed the latest US NFP figures. Key Quotes “The US economy ended its 113 consecutive months of employment creation (since October 2010) with a huge loss of 701,000 nonfarm payroll (NFP) jobs in March… This was a significant deterioration of US jobs market when compared to the recent ADP report which saw just 27,000 job losses (it did not include bigger job losses that occurred later in the month, so we may see this ADP figure revised much worse in the April report). Job creation in February was revised slightly better to 275,000 (from 273,00 previously) but there was a significant 59,000 downward revision to the January jobs data to 214,000 (from 273,000).” “The private sector was fully responsible the US jobs losses with 713,000 while the government added some 12,000 new jobs (from +33,000 in February) due to hiring of workers for 2020 Census exercise.” “The top three services-providing employment that had driven job creation in the recent past are now the worst hit sectors by the early effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on the US labor market. Of the three sectors, leisure & hospitality bore the disproportionate brunt of the COVID-19 impact with 459,000 job disappearances, mainly in food services and drinking places (-417,000 which nearly wiped out all its jobs gains from the last 2 years in a single month!). The next was health care & social assistance which saw employment fall by 61,000) and followed by professional & business services (-52,000) of which losses were in temporary help services (-50,000).” “US unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% in March (from 3.5% in February) in line with the significant job losses. That said, the unemployment rate increase was cushioned by the marked easing of the labor participation rate which tumbled by 0.7ppt to 62.7% (from 63.4% in February) as 1.6 million exited the labor force.”

The GBP/USD pair quickly reversed a mid-European session dip to the 1.2280 region and refreshed session tops, around the 1.2355-60 region in the last

GBP/USD attracts some dip-buying interest and jumped to session tops.The set-up seems tilted in favour of bulls, albeit warrants some caution.The GBP/USD pair quickly reversed a mid-European session dip to the 1.2280 region and refreshed session tops, around the 1.2355-60 region in the last hour. Currently hovering around the 1.2335 region, traders are likely to wait for a sustained strength above 100-hour SMA before placing fresh bullish bets. Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts maintained their bullish bias and support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the pair. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though have recovered from the negative territory – are yet to gain any meaningful traction and warrant some caution. Hence, any subsequent positive move is likely to confront some fresh supply near the 1.2365-70 region, above which the pair is likely to aim towards the 1.2400 mark. On the flip side, the 1.2300 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might negate the positive outlook and prompt some technical selling. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

The S&P 500 remains well below the lower end of its ‘typical’ extreme, 15% below the 200-day average, further increasing the risk we may be seeing the

The S&P 500 remains well below the lower end of its ‘typical’ extreme, 15% below the 200-day average, further increasing the risk we may be seeing the early stages of a more sustained decline, per Credit Suisse. Key quotes “Support is seen at 2364/60, below which can add momentum to the decline again, with support thereafter seen at the current YTD low at 2192, beneath which we see more important support at 2030/2000, the 50% retracement of the entire 2009/2020 bull market.” “Above 2641/51 on a weekly closing basis would suggest a deeper recovery/consolidation phase can indeed unfold, with resistance next at 2793, then more importantly starting at 2855 and stretching up to the 200-day average at 3022. We would look for a fresh top here.” “Monthly RSI has broken support stretching back to 2011 and is seen likely to fall further.” “Monthly MACD holds a long-term bearish divergence and has also turned decisively lower.”  

Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (-0.3%) in February: Actual (1.2%)

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been stable overnight and remains in good spirits, the PM's spokesman told reporters on Tuesday and further a

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been stable overnight and remains in good spirits, the PM's spokesman told reporters on Tuesday and further added that the PM was receiving standard oxygen treatment and was breathing without any other assistance. Key takeaways "PM has not required mechanical ventilation or non-invasive respiratory support." "PM has not been diagnosed with pneumonia." "PM's treatment is being determined entirely by his medical team." "There is still significant spare capacity in intensive care units, including ventilators, in London and across the country." Market reaction The GBP/USD pair edged higher on these comments and was last seen trading at 1.2340, adding 0.9% on the day.

The Aussie is among the day’s strongest currencies after the RBA kept its policy settings on hold. AUD/USD could extend its gains, according to analys

The Aussie is among the day’s strongest currencies after the RBA kept its policy settings on hold. AUD/USD could extend its gains, according to analysts at TD Securities. Key quotes “AUD/USD's technical backdrop also looks constructive. The daily RSI is near its range-midpoint, while the MACD histogram also continues to edge higher.” “Our immediate focus is on resistance at 0.6214 (31 March high), which could serve as a notable gateway to further gains. Above this, the next objective for AUD bulls comes in at 0.6313.”  

German Finance Agency announced on Monday that it will be issuing more debt in the second quarter of the year than originally planned to finance the C

German Finance Agency announced on Monday that it will be issuing more debt in the second quarter of the year than originally planned to finance the Corona Aid Programme, per Reuters. "Will raise emissions by €43 billion to €130.5 billion in the second quarter," the agency said. "Deficits or increased financing needs could lead to changes to planned issuances in the second half of the year. There is still considerable uncertainty about possible changes." Market reaction Germany's DAX 30 Index clings to strong gains following this announcement and was last seen adding 4.1% on a daily basis at 10,487.70.

For decades economists and investors have been questioning the sustainability of Japan’s government debt burden. The announcement from PM Abe of a stu

For decades economists and investors have been questioning the sustainability of Japan’s government debt burden.  The announcement from PM Abe of a stunningly large stimulus package worth around 20% of GDP has clearly refocused attention back on how easily the government will fund this, per Rabobank. Key quotes “Reuters this week reported that Japan will boost government bond issuance by USD149 bln to fund the latest stimulus package. In light of this, it seems almost impossible to imagine the BoJ ratcheting down its purchasing programme.” “According to S&P ‘within the next one to two years, Japan will return to a fiscal trajectory that stabilises or improves its government debt level relative to GDP.’  It would appear that the market will continue to absorb the news, a truly huge stimulus package almost without blinking.” “The stimulus package is unlikely to avert a recession, though clearly it will soften the blow.  Over the next month or two at least economic data can be expected to wield some disastrous news.”   “While the USD looks set to outperform the JPY on any worsening of risk appetite, we see further downside potential for EUR/JPY on a 3-month view towards 113.4.”  

India’s 21-day lockdown is seen as an extraordinary move with substantial economic costs attached to it, but it has been deemed necessary by the gover

India’s 21-day lockdown is seen as an extraordinary move with substantial economic costs attached to it, but it has been deemed necessary by the government to limit the spread of coronavirus and avert a large-scale health crisis, per HSBC. Key quotes “A shutdown of this magnitude is seen as an extraordinary move with substantial economic costs attached to it, but necessary to limit the community spread of the virus and avert a large-scale public health crisis.” “Even after the lockdown period ends, the 'fear factor' may still result in below-normal activity for a few more months, as there will likely be a lingering impact of COVID-19 related precautions on both private consumption and corporate capex.” “We expect the RBI (and the government) to not lift their foot off the accelerator until the economy begins to revive.” “The sharp fall in crude prices should lower India’s import bill and aid its current account, although oil prices are coming off their lows as talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia advance.”  

The AUD/USD pair closed the first day of the week decisively higher and extended its rally on Tuesday to touch its highest level in a week at 0.6194.

RBA keeps policy rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected.US Dollar Index drops to 100 area on Tuesday.Market mood remains upbeat with global equity indexes posting strong gains.The AUD/USD pair closed the first day of the week decisively higher and extended its rally on Tuesday to touch its highest level in a week at 0.6194. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6185, adding 1.63%, or 100 pips, on a daily basis. RBA's upbeat tone helps AUD gain traction Earlier in the day, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected. In its policy statement, the RBA noted that a coordinated monetary and fiscal response to the coronavirus outbreak would soften the expected economic contraction. "If conditions continue to improve, it is likely that smaller and less frequent bond purchases will be required," the RBA added to help the AUD preserve its strength. Commenting on the RBA's policy statement, "the bank indicated market functioning has improved globally and this is evident in Australia as well," said TD Securities analysts. "If this continues, the RBA expects the scale of its support to be smaller and less frequent.” Meanwhile, the greenback is having a difficult time in the risk-on market environment and helping the pair preserve its daily gains. With global equity indexes rising sharply for the second straight day on Tuesday, the US Dollar Index is down 0.6% on the day at 100.15.  Later in the day, the IBB/TIPP Economic Optimism Index will be featured in the US economic docket. Technical levels to watch for  

USD/CAD has again been capped at key resistance, but the broader risk stays seen higher, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. Key quotes “USD/CAD s

USD/CAD has again been capped at key resistance, but the broader risk stays seen higher, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. Key quotes “USD/CAD strength has again been capped at the 78.6% retracement of the 2002/07 fall and 2016 high at 1.4666/90.” “With a base in place above 1.3793, our bias remains higher for a retest of here, but with a break here needed to see a further acceleration higher with resistance next at the ‘neckline’ to the 2001/02 top at 1.5035, where we would expect to see an attempt to hold at first.”  “Support at the 1.3665/08 breakout point and 61.8% retracement of the 2020 surge should ideally halt any further potential correction.”  

Mexico Headline Inflation below expectations (0.2%) in March: Actual (-0.05%)

Mexico Core Inflation came in at 0.29%, above expectations (0.27%) in March

Mexico 12-Month Inflation registered at 3.25%, below expectations (3.47%) in March

EUR/USD met support in the sub-1.0800 region, where some buying interest appears to have finally turned up. If the ongoing recovery manages to gather

EUR/USD has finally managed to reverse the multi-session decline.Immediately to the upside now emerges the 1.0990 barrier.EUR/USD met support in the sub-1.0800 region, where some buying interest appears to have finally turned up. If the ongoing recovery manages to gather extra steam, then the next hurdle of relevance is located at late-January lows in the 1.0990/95 band. Above the 200-day SMA, today at 1.1066, the selling pressure is expected to alleviate somewhat. EUR/USD daily chart  

GBP/USD strength is seen as corrective and economists at Credit Suisse look for a fresh move lower in Q2. Key quotes “GBP/USD has seen a sharp rebound

GBP/USD strength is seen as corrective and economists at Credit Suisse look for a fresh move lower in Q2. Key quotes “GBP/USD has seen a sharp rebound but with a large bear ‘triangle’ now established this is viewed as a corrective bounce, and we look for the trend to turn lower again in Q2.”  “We look for resistance at 1.2517/1.2726 to cap further strength for a clear break of the long term uptrend from 1985 for a fresh look at the 1.1412 low from March.” “Above 1.2726 would suggest the trend has shifted neutral, with resistance then at 1.3200.”  

The prospects of USD/CNH surpassing the 7.1700 level keep losing momentum, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While our view

The prospects of USD/CNH surpassing the 7.1700 level keep losing momentum, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While our view that USD is ‘likely to continue to consolidate’ was not wrong, the registered range of 7.0980/7.1184 was narrower than our expected 7.0900/7.1250. The price action offers no further clues and we continue to expect USD to consolidate. Expected range for today, 7.0950/7.1200.” Next 1-3 weeks: “After rising strongly to 7.1652 on 19 Mar, USD has not been able to make much headway on the upside and subsequently traded mostly sideways. While upward momentum has deteriorated further, a break of 7.1700 is not ruled out just yet. To look at it another way, there is still chance for another up-leg above 7.1700 even though the prospect for such a move continues to diminish. Only a break of 7.0550 (‘strong support’ level previously at 7.0450) would indicate that 7.1652 is more significant top than currently expected.”

Crude oil prices started the week on the back foot with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) erasing 8.75% on a daily basis to close at $26.28.

OPEC+ will reportedly reduce output if other producers join the effort.Investors seem to be hesitant to make large bets ahead of Thursday's critical meeting.Coming up: API's Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. Crude oil prices started the week on the back foot with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) erasing 8.75% on a daily basis to close at $26.28. With investors moving to the sidelines while trying to figure out if Thursday's emergency OPEC+ meeting will lead to an output cut, the WTI is correcting Monday's losses. As of writing, the WTI was up 2.7% on the day at $27. OPEC headlines continue to drive oil prices Earlier in the day, Reuters reported the output cuts by the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) on Thursday will be conditional on participation of other producers such as the US, Canada and Brazil. Commenting on the latest developments, "a supply side response is inevitable, although the chance of a coordinated global supply cut is low," argued ANZ analysts. "We expect low prices and limited storage to force closures, primarily in North America and Europe.” Meanwhile, Russia's Energy Minister Novak said that he will be having a conversation with authorities in the state of Duma to discuss the situation in the oil market. Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institue will publish its Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. Last week, the EIA reported that crude oil stocks in the US increased by 13.8 million barrels in the week ending March 27th. Technical levels to watch for  

DXY is trading on the defensive on Tuesday. In fact, the index has eroded Monday’s gains and is facing moderate selling pressure in the proximity of t

DXY is losing further momentum and challenges the 100.00 barrier.Immediately to the downside emerges the 99.90 region.DXY is trading on the defensive on Tuesday. In fact, the index has eroded Monday’s gains and is facing moderate selling pressure in the proximity of the 100.00 mark. If sellers regain the upper hand, then the next target of relevance emerges at the February’s peak at 99.91. If cleared, a dip to late-March lows near 98.30 should return to the radar ahead of the key 200-day SMA, today at 98.11. So far, the constructive stance on the buck remains unchanged as long as the 200-day SMA holds the downside. DXY daily chart  

Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) fell from previous 283B to 279.1B in April

The NZD/USD pair built on its rebound from 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 0.5470-0.6070 recovery move and edged higher for the second consecutive sessio

NZD/USD gains traction for the second straight session on Tuesday.The set-up favours bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.The NZD/USD pair built on its rebound from 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 0.5470-0.6070 recovery move and edged higher for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The overnight break through a one-week-old descending trend-channel, coinciding with 100-hour SMA, remained supportive of the ongoing positive move to one-week tops. However, slightly overbought conditions on the hourly chart held investors from placing fresh bullish bets and failed to assist the pair to find acceptance above the 0.60 mark. Meanwhile, oscillators on the 4-hourly chart maintained their bullish bias and have also recovered from the negative territory on the daily chart, supporting prospects for additional gains. Hence, any meaningful pullback towards mid-0.5900s might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate some fresh bullish position, which should help limit any further downfall. The 100-hour SMA, around the 0.5915 region, now seems to act as an immediate strong near-term support, which if broken might be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. NZD/USD 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

The Spanish IBEX 35 is (just) holding its 2012 low, but an eventual break is seen as likely to mark a multi-year top, analysts at Credit Suisse inform

The Spanish IBEX 35 is (just) holding its 2012 low, but an eventual break is seen as likely to mark a multi-year top, analysts at Credit Suisse inform. Key quotes “The IBEX’s recent collapse below 7580 has completed a large top for a test and essentially hold for now at the 5905 low of 2012.” “Strength from here though is seen as corrective and our bias is for 7452 to ideally cap further strength for a retest and then eventual clear break of 5905.”  “Above 7452 would suggest a deeper recovery can be seen towards 8000/25.”  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted USD/JPY is expected to trade within the 108.40-109.30 range in the very near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We high

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted USD/JPY is expected to trade within the 108.40-109.30 range in the very near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday the ‘rapid improvement in upward momentum suggests further USD gains towards 109.40’. However, USD eased off after touching 109.37. Upward pressure has more or less dissipated and for today, further USD strength appears unlikely. USD is more likely to consolidate and trade between 108.40 and 109.30.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted last Friday (03 Apr, spot at 108.00) that ‘risk of a short-term bottom has increased’. The breach of the 108.75 ‘strong resistance’ level earlier this morning indicates that last Tuesday (01 Apr) low of 106.89 is a short-term bottom. The near-term bias is for USD to test the 110.40 level from here. A clear break of this level would indicate USD could extend towards last month’s top at 111.71. On the downside, only a breach of 107.30 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

After printing multi-week lows near 116.50 last week, EUR/JPY managed to regain some composure and it is now approaching the key 119.00 mark on the ba

EUR/JPY extends the weekly recovery to the vicinity of 119.00.Further upside could see the 200-day SMA near 120 re-visited.After printing multi-week lows near 116.50 last week, EUR/JPY managed to regain some composure and it is now approaching the key 119.00 mark on the back of persistent JPY-selling. If the buying impetus picks up pace, then the next target of relevance will be the 200-day SMA in the 119.85/90 band, just ahead of the 120.00 barrier. A breakout February tops in the mid-121.00s is needed in order to alleviate the downside pressure and shift the focus to a potential test of yearly highs in the boundaries of 123.00 the figure (January 16th). EUR/JPY daily chart  

Japan Leading Economic Index improved in February according to preliminary estimates while USD/JPY is neutral-to-bullish in the short-term, Valeria Be

Japan Leading Economic Index improved in February according to preliminary estimates while USD/JPY is neutral-to-bullish in the short-term, Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet briefs. Key quotes “Japan published the preliminary estimate of the February Leading Economic Index, which came in at 92.1, beating the market’s forecast. The Coincident Index for the same month was also better than anticipated, rising to 95.8.” “USD/JPY 4-hour chart shows that it’s neutral-to-bullish, as it continues to develop a few pips above congestion of moving averages.” “Technical indicators are aiming marginally higher within positive levels, but below their daily highs and without momentum enough.” “Support levels: 108.65 108.25 Resistance levels: 109.40 109.80”

Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that he may hold a video call with state Duma to discuss the market, the state-run news media, RIA Novos

Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that he may hold a video call with state Duma to discuss the market, the state-run news media, RIA Novosti, reports. more to come ...

The aggressive collapse in the S&P 500 has extended below, and remains still capped by its pivotal long-term 200-week average, analysts at Credit Suis

The aggressive collapse in the S&P 500 has extended below, and remains still capped by its pivotal long-term 200-week average, analysts at Credit Suisse report. Key quotes “The pivotal long-term 200-week average is typically the maximum drawdown we witness when we are seeing aggressive corrections within multi-year bull trends, as has been seen on many occasions.” “Even the 1987 crash was contained at this average. The notable exceptions are clearly the 2000/2002 and 2007/2009 bear markets, and indeed back in 1973/1974.” “If we see the index hold below this critical average on a sustained basis, there is clearly a risk we may be seeing a more significant bear trend develop.” “Near-term, we expect some consolidation/recovery post the Q1 collapse, but we look for renewed weakness later in the quarter.”  

NZD/USD is still seen navigating a broad consolidative pattern, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD traded between 0.

NZD/USD is still seen navigating a broad consolidative pattern, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD traded between 0.5851 and 0.5961 yesterday, wider than our expected range of 0.5850/0.5940 range before ending the day on a strong note at 0.5927 (+1.07%). Upward momentum has picked up and this could lead NZD moving higher towards 0.5985. For today, a rise beyond 0.6020 is not expected. Support is at 0.5910 followed by 0.5870.” Next 1-3 weeks: “While our ‘strong support’ level of 0.5880 ‘survived’ for the second straight day (overnight low of 0.5881), the price action is enough to indicate that last Friday’s (27 Mar) high of 0.6067 is a short-term top. From here, the immediate risk is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.5820/0.6020 range (a sustained decline below 0.5820 appears unlikely for now). In other words, NZD is likely to trade within a broad range a period.”

We are placing higher priority on economic revival than fiscal reform now, said the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso on Tuesday. more to come ...

We are placing higher priority on economic revival than fiscal reform now, said the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso on Tuesday.   more to come ...

UK Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove is self-isolating as a member of his family is displaying coronavirus symptoms, ITV reports. Not so long ago w

UK Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove is self-isolating as a member of his family is displaying coronavirus symptoms, ITV reports. Not so long ago we heard the Cabinet Minister Gove speaking in a radio interview on the PM Boris Johnson’s health condition. Gove confirmed earlier today that PM Johnson is not on the ventilator and any decision on lifting lockdown will not be delayed by PM's hospitalization. GBP/USD extends strong intraday recovery, refreshes session tops around mid-1.2300s

The USD/CHF pair continued losing ground through the early European session and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, aro

USD/CHF stalls its recent positive move and faces rejection near the 0.9800 mark.Some heavy USD selling seemed to be a key factor exerting downward pressure.Bulls seemed unimpressed by a strong follow-through rally in the equity markets.The USD/CHF pair continued losing ground through the early European session and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.9730-25 region. The pair failed to capitalize on last week's strong positive move of around 300 pips and faced rejection near the 0.9800 round-figure mark, snapping six consecutive days of winning streak. The pair started retreating from the vicinity of the very important 200-day SMA and was being weighed down by some heavy US dollar selling. The latest optimism over a slowdown in the number of new coronavirus cases in the European hotspots –  Italy and Spain – and the centre of the US outbreak – New York – indicated that the pandemic may be reaching its peak. This prompted some aggressive USD long-unwinding and was seen as a key factor weighing on the major. Meanwhile, the corrective slide from two-week tops seemed rather unaffected by the prevailing risk-on mod, which tends to undermine demand for perceived safe-haven currencies, including the Swiss franc. the global equity markets rallied for the second straight day, albeit failed to impress bulls or lend any support to the pair. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any support or the ongoing slide marks the end of the recent bounce from the key 0.9500 psychological mark. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch  

Several euro-zone countries are now making loud calls for the issuance of eurobonds (coronabonds) to finance the massive fiscal deficits in the euro z

Several euro-zone countries are now making loud calls for the issuance of eurobonds (coronabonds) to finance the massive fiscal deficits in the euro zone in response to the coronavirus crisis, analysts at Natixis report. Key quotes “Issuing coronabonds in 2020 would be politically significant, as a demonstration of European solidarity. But it would be of little use economically or financially, as the ECB is going to monetise all the additional fiscal deficits resulting from the coronavirus crisis.” “Once the health crisis is over, there will be new public spending needs (support for investment, the healthcare sector and the onshoring of strategic industries). These additional structural fiscal deficits will be difficult to finance, because they will not be monetised by the ECB.” “There is more of a need for ‘post-corona’ bonds, to finance these large public spending needs after the crisis, than for coronabonds to finance the immediate crisis response.”  

According to the Spanish Health Ministry, coronavirus cases rise to 140,510 on Tuesday from 135,032 reported on Monday. more to come ...

According to the Spanish Health Ministry, coronavirus cases rise to 140,510 on Tuesday from 135,032 reported on Monday.   more to  come ...

The Russian state news agency, RIA Novosti (RIA), is out with the latest report, citing that there is reportedly no consensus between Russia and Saudi

The Russian state news agency, RIA Novosti (RIA), is out with the latest report, citing that there is reportedly no consensus between Russia and Saudi Arabia just yet on the likely output cuts. All is to be decided on the April 9 meeting day, the agency added. This scenario is evident from the earlier Reuters headlines, citing that OPEC+ cuts on Thursday would depend on US, Canada, Brazil and others’ proposal.Oil price reaction Russia’s willingness to participate in the OPEC+ meeting is seen as a positive sign by the oil traders but the same is not being reflected in the oil-price action at the moment. WTI hovers around 27.00, up 3.53% so far, awaiting fresh cues from the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Crude Stocks data.  

EUR/USD has been rising amid hope for turning a corner in the old continent's battle with coronavirus. Additional disease headlines, fiscal stimulus,

EUR/USD has been rising amid hope for turning a corner in the old continent's battle with coronavirus. Additional disease headlines, fiscal stimulus, and coronabonds are eyed, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam briefs. Key quotes “Stock markets are on the rise around the world and the safe-haven US dollar is on the back foot. Markets are also encouraged by signs of a slowdown in new cases in New York and by talk of another US fiscal stimulus package.” “The common currency's advance is somewhat limited by ongoing disagreements over ‘coronabonds.’ Germany and several other countries continue refusing to mutualize the debt in order to support the worst-hit countries.”  “The Eurogroup meet today and will try to hammer out a deal. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that this is the EU's most difficult moment and the longer countries remain at loggerheads, the more the euro could suffer.”

Analysts at ANZ Bank expect demand to contract in Q2, as the pandemic spreads outside China. Mining disruptions and closures could offset some demand

Analysts at ANZ Bank expect demand to contract in Q2, as the pandemic spreads outside China. Mining disruptions and closures could offset some demand losses. Key quotes “The pandemic’s spread outside China and a slow restart of industrial activities inside China will subdue demand for industrial metals in Q2 2020.” “Copper prices have never traded below the 90th percentile of production costs. So, we see the downside protected near USD4,000/t.” "Nickel prices will be protected near USD10,000/t due to its exposure to China and electric vehicles."  

The output cuts by the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) on Thursday would depend on how much the US, Canada, Brazil and others will propose, Reuter

The output cuts by the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) on Thursday would depend on how much the US, Canada, Brazil and others will propose, Reuters reports, citing an OPEC source with knowledge of the discussion. Baseline level for oil output cuts yet to be agreed This is considering production of some members jumped in April vs Q1

The single currency has left behind Monday’s pessimism and is now pushing EUR/USD to the upper end of the range near 1.0880, or 3-day highs. EUR/USD l

EUR/USD reverses Monday’s losses and tests 1.0880.COVID-19 pandemic loses traction in Spain and Italy.Eurogroup meeting expected to agree on joint debt issuance.The single currency has left behind Monday’s pessimism and is now pushing EUR/USD to the upper end of the range near 1.0880, or 3-day highs. EUR/USD looks to Eurogroup eventEUR/USD regains some composure and is reversing a 6-day negative streak on Tuesday, always on the back of the improved sentiment in the risk-associated universe and renewed selling bias around the greenback. In the meantime, all the attention is expected to be on the Eurogroup meeting due later on Tuesday, where European officials are seen discussing a joint action to help bloc’s members to fight the fallout of the coronavirus on the economy. The centre of the debate is expected to gyrate on the issuance of new debt, while the so-called “coronabonds” should also be on top of the agenda. The better tone in the riskier assets has also echoed in the German fixed income markets, where yields of the key 10-year Bund are navigating daily highs around -0.37%. In the docket, the German Industrial Production expanded 0.3% MoM during February, extending the positive trend from the start of the year and surpassing initial consensus for a 0.9% contraction. Across the Atlantic, JOLTS Job Openings and the API’s weekly report will be on the limelight. What to look for around EUR The single currency has regained the smile on Tuesday following the negative start of the week, as markets have improved their sentiment on the back of positive headlines from the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in Spain and Italy, where infected cases and deaths appear to have left the worst behind. On the macro view, recent better-than-expected results in fundamentals in both Germany and the broader Euroland opened the door to some respite in the prevailing downtrend, although the underlying stance still remains well on the negative side. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.74% at 1.0871 and a break above 1.0983 (55-day SMA) would target 1.0992 (monthly low Jan.29) en route to 1.1066 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, immediate contention emerges at 1.0768 (monthly low Apr.6) seconded by 1.0635 (2020 low Mar.20) and finally 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017).

Negative real interest rates, easy money supply, heightened macroeconomic risks and fading USD strength together form the benign backdrop for gold inv

Negative real interest rates, easy money supply, heightened macroeconomic risks and fading USD strength together form the benign backdrop for gold investors, according to economists at ANZ Bank. Key quotes “Easy monetary policy and macro uncertainty favour gold investment demand.” “We see gold coin demand picking up along with ETF and futures this year.” “We see flight to safety investments attracting fund flows in gold. Silver looks underappreciated, with the gold-silver ratio above 110, leaving room for catch-up.”  

Citing confirmation by a Russian energy ministry representative, Interfax (IFX) reports that Moscow confirms that it will participate in the OPEC and

Citing confirmation by a Russian energy ministry representative, Interfax (IFX) reports that Moscow confirms that it will participate in the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) meeting scheduled on April 9.

EUR/USD Tuesday's technical chart is showing an improvement picture for the bulls, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Euro/dollar has

EUR/USD Tuesday's technical chart is showing an improvement picture for the bulls, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Euro/dollar has broken above the downtrend support line that accompanied it since late March but is still trading below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages on the four-hour chart.”  “Critical resistance waits at 1.09, which provided support late last week and is also where the 100 SMA meets the price, in addition to being a round number.” “Resistance beyond 1.09 awaits at 1.0950, which held EUR/USD down last week. It is followed by 1.1050, which capped another recovery attempt last week.” “Support is at 1.0840, which held the currency pair on Monday, followed by 1.0765, Monday's low.”  

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) came out with a statement on Monday, citing that it's too soon to say whether coronavirus cases are easing. Furt

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) came out with a statement on Monday, citing that it's too soon to say whether coronavirus cases are easing. Further, the institute said that they need to observe what will happen in the coming days to be sure. Earlier today, Germany reported a fifth straight drop in the daily rate of new cases but the number of deaths continues rising. Coronavirus: Considering the longer-term impact – Charles Schwab EUR/USD outlook: The Euro enters corrective phase after six-day fall

AUD/USD has rebounded but the core trend stays seen lower, in the opinion of analysts at Credit Suisse. Key quotes “AUD/USD has rebounded post its agg

AUD/USD has rebounded but the core trend stays seen lower, in the opinion of analysts at Credit Suisse. Key quotes “AUD/USD has rebounded post its aggressive collapse, but with strength capped just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the current fall at 0.6237.”  “Our core outlook stays biased lower with support initially seen at 0.5871/65, beneath which can see key support thereafter at the current low for the year at 0.5510.” “Resistance at 0.6237 ideally continues to cap, with resistance seen thereafter at the 200-day average at 0.6475.”  

The USD/CAD pair maintained its offered tone through the early European session and is currently placed near one-week tops, around the 1.4030 region.

USD/CAD remained under some heavy selling for the second straight session on Tuesday.Positive oil prices undermined the loonie and exerted some pressure amid weaker USD.The USD/CAD pair maintained its offered tone through the early European session and is currently placed near one-week tops, around the 1.4030 region. The pair witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Tuesday and was being weighed down by a combination of factors – a modest US dollar pullback and positive crude oil prices. The latest optimism over a slowdown in the number of new coronavirus cases in the United States, Italy and Spain supported risk sentiment, which eventually dented the USD's perceived safe-haven demand. The risk-on mood was further reinforced by some strong follow-through upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields, albeit did little to impress the USD bulls or ease the prevailing bearish sentiment around the pair. On the other hand, a goodish pickup in crude oil prices underpinned demand for the commodity-linked currency – the loonie – and contributed to the pair's slide to the vicinity of the key 1.40 psychological mark. Oil prices rallied around 4% on Tuesday in the wake of firming expectations that the world's biggest producers will agree to cut output amid a sharp drop in the global demand and deepening supply glut. Meanwhile, growing market concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic might continue to benefit the USD's status as the global reserve currency and help limit deeper losses. As investors look for additional signs of a peak in the coronavirus pandemic, it will be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any support at lower levels or continues with its ongoing bearish trajectory. Technical levels to watch  

The economy is currently facing down its largest contraction since perhaps the Great Depression. For now, we are all mired in the short-term impact; b

The economy is currently facing down its largest contraction since perhaps the Great Depression. For now, we are all mired in the short-term impact; but it’s also worth considering some of the longer-term impacts, as Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab notes. Key quotes “Deglobalization is a force unlikely to recede. One of the longer-term implications of that might be a higher level of inflation than we’ve become accustomed to.” “Health screenings will likely become a part of life akin to the ushering in of the TSA following 9/11.” “Deficits/debt will likely rise to even greater levels as a share of GDP that was imaginable before COVID-19.”  “Corporate America was forced to react quickly to the economic shutdown possibly leading to structural adjustment to how they operate.”  “Financial caution will likely persist, by households who may want to build a more consistent liquidity cushion, and by companies looking to shore up their balance sheets.”  

Headline inflation softened to 2.5% y/y in March. Transport prices will likely remain a drag on inflation in the coming months amid lower global oil p

Headline inflation softened to 2.5% y/y in March. Transport prices will likely remain a drag on inflation in the coming months amid lower global oil prices, economists at ANZ Bank inform. USD/PHP is trading at 50.6855. Key quotes “Headline inflation decreased by 0.1% m/m in March due to a 0.3% m/m and 1.8% m/m decline in ‘Food and beverages’ and ‘Transport’ prices, respectively.” “Core inflation eased to 3.0% y/y in February from 3.2% y/y previously.” “We expect inflation to average 1.9% through the year, a touch below the BSP’s 2-4% target band.” “We still expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to cut the policy rate by 25bps to 3% at its May meeting.”  

Oil demand is unlikely to recover until travel restrictions globally have eased, strategists at ANZ Bank report. Key quotes “Demand has collapsed and

Oil demand is unlikely to recover until travel restrictions globally have eased, strategists at ANZ Bank report. Key quotes “Demand has collapsed and is likely to be weak for the foreseeable future. We estimate a demand loss of 20mb/d in Q2, as travel restrictions persist across many countries.” “A supply side response is inevitable, although the chance of a coordinated global supply cut is low. We expect low prices and limited storage to force closures, primarily in North America and Europe.” “Risks are still skewed to the downside for prices, in the short-term.”  

As highly anticipated, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe officially declares a state of emergency in seven prefectures, Reuters reports. more to

As highly anticipated, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe officially declares a state of emergency in seven prefectures, Reuters reports.   more to follow ....

France Exports, EUR: €42.36B (February) vs €40.343B

France Exports, EUR increased to €41B in February from previous €40.343B

It’s human nature to look ahead to brighter days and it’s the ‘job’ of markets to do the same. Regardless of the murkiness ahead, economists are start

It’s human nature to look ahead to brighter days and it’s the ‘job’ of markets to do the same. Regardless of the murkiness ahead, economists are starting to assess the ‘shape’ of the recovery, per Charles Schwab. Key quotes “In a perfect world, once the economy starts to open back up, a ‘V’ recovery would take hold. That may be wishful thinking other than for certain high-demand areas of the economy.” “For now, we are experiencing an ‘I’ (straight down).”  “Looking ahead, we may see a number of different letters; including ‘L’ (think cruising perhaps), ‘W’ (especially if we suffer COVID-19 setbacks/re-eruptions) or ‘M’ (the dreaded upside-down ‘W’). But one letter may be the best one to illustrate the broad economy: ‘Y’.” “A ‘Y’ may be apt because there were already fault lines seen in the economy before the COVID-19-related economic implosion. Once the economy begins to open back up, we could experience a short-term surge in growth; but that’s unlikely to be sustained (hence the ‘Y’ shape).”  

The selling bias around the greenback picked up pace in the last hour and lifted the GBP/USD pair to fresh session tops, around mid-1.2300s. Following

GBP/USD witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround amid some heavy USD selling.Traders looked past the news that the UK PMI Johnson was moved to intensive care.Concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic might cap gains.The selling bias around the greenback picked up pace in the last hour and lifted the GBP/USD pair to fresh session tops, around mid-1.2300s. Following an early fall to 1-1/2 week lows, the pair witnessed a dramatic turnaround and rallied nearly 200 pips from an intraday low level of 1.2164 amid some heavy US dollar long-unwinding trade. The latest optimism over a slowdown in the number of new coronavirus cases in the United States, Italy and Spain led to some follow-through rally in the equity markets for the second straight session. The risk-on mood eventually weighed heavily on the greenback's perceived safe-haven status and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher through the early European session on Tuesday. As investors took cues for signs of a peak in the coronavirus pandemic, the GBP bulls seemed rather unaffected by the fact that the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved to intensive care overnight. Meanwhile, the UK Cabinet minister Michael Gove was out with some comments in the last hour and said that any decision on lifting lockdown, containment measures may be a bit too soon for the UK to consider. This comes amid growing concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which might revive the USD's demand as the global reserve currency and keep a lid on any runaway rally for the pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for the resumption of the pair's recent strong recovery from the 1.1400 mark, or 35-year lows set on March 20. Technical levels to watch  

Lisa Shalett, CIO at Morgan Stanley, believes some of the best investment opportunities in this generation are being created right now. Key quotes “I

Lisa Shalett, CIO at Morgan Stanley, believes some of the best investment opportunities in this generation are being created right now. Key quotes “I think geopolitical negotiations could lead to a reversal in the price of oil, but my main reason for endorsing commodities is because they are tied to the economy, which I expect to start to recover later this year.” “I expect the dollar to weaken, which makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for much of the rest of the world, and inflation to pick up once the worst of the health crisis is over and stimulus starts to have an impact.” “High yield bonds are issued by companies rated below investment grade. While some of these heavily indebted firms may fail this year, the asset class seems to present better potential opportunity than it has in decades.”  

Analysts at ANZ Bank have downgraded their EUR/USD forecasts and anticipate a test of parity in coming months. Key quotes “Unlimited QE means the US h

Analysts at ANZ Bank have downgraded their EUR/USD forecasts and anticipate a test of parity in coming months. Key quotes “Unlimited QE means the US has a ready buyer for the huge pipeline of Treasury debt issuance, reducing the need for a higher risk premium or weaker USD. Low inflation is also benefiting the dollar.” “Unless the euro area addresses the challenges facing its fiscally weaker members, or it starts to repatriate its stock of net foreign assets, we see the path of euro depreciation extending.”  “The high speed, rollercoaster ride that has been the EUR/USD in 2020, is approaching this critical 1.05 area. There undoubtedly will be some support for the euro around that level, but we expect the depreciation will not stop there.” “We are now forecasting a move below parity by the end of 2020.”  

Traders added nearly 18.5K contracts to their open interest positions in Crude Oil futures markets, as per advanced data from CME Group. On the flip s

Traders added nearly 18.5K contracts to their open interest positions in Crude Oil futures markets, as per advanced data from CME Group. On the flip side, volume shrunk for the second session in a row, this time by almost 653K contracts. WTI: Back to the $20.00s? The negative start of the week in prices of the West Texas Intermediate was in tandem with rising open interest, opening the door to a deeper retracement, which could initially target the key $20.00 neighbourhood per barrel.

Thailand’s headline inflation declined in March owing mainly to weaker energy and food prices, economists at ANZ Bank report. USD/THB is trading at 32

Thailand’s headline inflation declined in March owing mainly to weaker energy and food prices, economists at ANZ Bank report. USD/THB is trading at 32.740. Key quotes “Headline CPI fell 0.86% m/m in March, following a 0.08% decline in the previous month. The decline was led by lower prices of energy (-6.70% m/m) and food (-0.25% m/m).” “Core CPI also edged down 0.02% m/m in March (February: 0.09%), or 0.58% on an annual basis.” “We continue to expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut its policy rate by 25bps in its May meeting.”  

There were no surprises with the RBA keeping the cash rate at 0.25% and reaffirming its commitment to initiatives outlined on 19th March, per TD Secur

There were no surprises with the RBA keeping the cash rate at 0.25% and reaffirming its commitment to initiatives outlined on 19th March, per TD Securities. Key quotes “The RBA kept the cash rate on hold as expected at 0.25%, affirming its commitment to the 3yr 0.25% yield target and other measures announced on 19th Mar.” “The Bank shied away from providing guidance on growth, other than stating contractions will be large and unemployment will head higher.” “The Bank indicated market functioning has improved globally and this is evident in Australia as well. If this continues, the RBA expects the scale of its support to be smaller and less frequent.”  

EUR/GBP has sold off to the 0.8751 200 day ma, and is starting to recover from here, as Karen Jones from Commerzbank notes. Key quotes “In the 200-day

EUR/GBP has sold off to the 0.8751 200 day ma, and is starting to recover from here, as Karen Jones from Commerzbank notes. Key quotes “In the 200-day ma vicinity, we also find the 61.8% retracement at 0.8747.”  “We also note Two 13 counts on the 240 minute chart and a TD perfected set up on the daily chart, they imply the end of the down move.”  “Recovery above 0.9022 will target 0.9225 and then last week’s high at 0.9501.”  “We are unable to rule out scope for 0.8712, 0.8673, the 6 week uptrend and the 55-day ma but this is not our favoured view.”  

Gold finally broke down of its Asian session consolidation phase and dropped to fresh session lows, around the $1645 region in the last hour. The comm

Gold retreats from near four-week tops amid a strong follow-through rally in the equity markets.Surging US bond yields added to the intraday selling bias, weaker USD might help limit the slide.Gold finally broke down of its Asian session consolidation phase and dropped to fresh session lows, around the $1645 region in the last hour. The commodity failed to capitalize on its early uptick to the $1674 region, or near four-week tops and witnessed a modest intraday pullback. A further improvement in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by some strong follow-through positive move in the equity markets, was seen exerting some pressure on traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. The risk-on mood was supported by the latest optimism over falling number of COVID-19 cases from the United States, Italy and Spain. This was further reinforced by a strong rally in the US equity markets, which further contributed towards driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal and contributed to the intraday slide. Meanwhile, a weaker tone surrounding the US dollar, which tends to undermine demand for the dollar-denominated, might turn out to be the only factor that might help limit any deeper losses. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent rally might have already run out of the steam. As investor look for further signs that the pandemic may be reaching its peak, the broader market risk sentiment might continue to play a key role in influencing the commodity's momentum on Tuesday in the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US. Technical levels to watch  

China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM) below expectations ($3.1T) in March: Actual ($3.061T)

Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) above forecasts (0.2%) in February: Actual (5.7%)

Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.4%) in February

According to flash readings from CME Group for Copper futures markets, open interest shrunk by around 1.1K contracts on Monday following five consecut

According to flash readings from CME Group for Copper futures markets, open interest shrunk by around 1.1K contracts on Monday following five consecutive daily builds. Volume, instead, prolonged the choppy performance and rose by almost 1.8K contracts. Copper does not rule out a move higher Prices of the base metal have broken above the multi-session consolidative theme and are approaching the $2.30 level. However, declining open interest carries the potential to slow the pace of the move up, which initially targets the 55-day SMA at $2.4650.

According to an internal document published on Tuesday, Energy Ministers from the Group of 20 major economies will hold an extraordinary meeting, via,

According to an internal document published on Tuesday, Energy Ministers from the Group of 20 major economies will hold an extraordinary meeting, via, a video conference on Friday “to ensure energy market stability”, per Reuters. The call is said to be organized by the G20 host Saudi Arabia and will likely follow the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting to discuss the output cuts on Thursday.

GBP/USD has been moving higher amid dollar weakness, amid concerns for PM Johnson. Various aspects of the leadership crisis may send sterling down aga

GBP/USD has been moving higher amid dollar weakness, amid concerns for PM Johnson. Various aspects of the leadership crisis may send sterling down again, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam briefs. Key quotes “The most recent reports have suggested that Johnson is receiving oxygen but is not on a ventilator. Hopefully, Tuesday's information is more reliable than Monday's. Nevertheless, being in intensive care is worrying enough.” “Any other leader would have less clout and would need to win over the trust of other ministers and civil servants while the country and the world are battling the coronavirus crisis.” “Contrary to several countries on the continent, the UK's peak may still be ahead.” “Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is now in charge of the government. He is a staunch supporter of a hard exit from the EU and may drive a harder exit, with less favorable trading terms for the UK.” “Putting Brexit aside, Raab leans toward more fiscally conservative views. He may curb efforts to support workers and businesses and limit the pound's recovery.”  

The intraday selling bias around the greenback lifted the AUD/USD pair to one-week tops, with bulls now eyeing a move towards reclaiming the 0.6200 ro

AUD/USD gains some follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday.Improving global risk sentiment, a modest USD pullback remained supportive of the move up.The intraday selling bias around the greenback lifted the AUD/USD pair to one-week tops, with bulls now eyeing a move towards reclaiming the 0.6200 round-figure mark. The pair added to the overnight gains and gained some strong follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The uptick was supported by a combination of factors, including a sharp turnaround in the global risk sentiment and a modest US dollar pullback. Investors turned optimistic amid a slowdown in the number of new coronavirus cases in Italy, Spain and the centre of the US outbreak – New York. This was evident from a positive mood around the equity markets and provided a modest lift to perceived riskier currencies – like the aussie. The risk-on flow drove flows away from the greenback's perceived safe-haven status and contributed to the pair's ongoing positive momentum. The Australian dollar got an additional boost from the latest RBA monetary policy decision to leave its official cash rate at a record low of 0.25%. It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to capitalize on the momentum or runs into some fresh supply at higher levels. Mounting fears about an imminent global recession might continue to underpin the USD's demand as the global reserve currency and keep a lid on any runaway rally. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, the pair remains at the mercy of the broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the coronavirus saga might further infuse some volatility across the financial markets and produce some meaningful trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

The oil price will continue to react to talks between producers about production cuts. The US is key, with President Trump reluctant to commit to mean

The oil price will continue to react to talks between producers about production cuts. The US is key, with President Trump reluctant to commit to meaningful output cuts, strategists at ANZ Bank inform. Key quotes “Prices recovered some of the early losses, as both Russia and Saudi Arabia suggested they would be willing to cut production but only if the rest of the world followed suit.”  “Trump’s meeting with oil executives over the weekend painted a picture of an industry that doesn’t want to give up what it built over the past decade.” “With US Energy Secretary, Dan Brouillette, holding productive talks with Saudi Arabia and Russia, the market is hopeful of some sort of agreement.”  “The reality of an oversupplied market was evident on the release of EIA’s weekly report. Inventories in the US rose 13.83mbbl last week, much higher than expected.”  

Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY): 5.9% (February) vs 2.2%

Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) down to -0.2% in February from previous 0.9%

Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) dipped from previous 2.5% to -0.4% in February

United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (YoY/3m) came in at 3% below forecasts (3.3%) in March

United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in March

Pound/dollar Tuesday's four-hour chart is pointing to further losses as bears are in the lead, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes

Pound/dollar Tuesday's four-hour chart is pointing to further losses as bears are in the lead, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “GBP/USD is experiencing downside momentum on the four-hour chart and trades below the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. However, it is still holding above the 100 SMA.” “Support awaits at 1.205, which provided support on Friday. The next level to watch is 1.2140, which was a cushion in late March.” “Resistance is at 1.2330, which capped cable on Monday. Further above, substantial resistance is at 1.2390, a stubborn cap from last week.”

Steel prices continue to decline, and with it, has dragged spot prices in China down, Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank, reports. Key quotes “Domes

Steel prices continue to decline, and with it, has dragged spot prices in China down, Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank, reports. Key quotes “Domestic hot rolled steel sheet spot prices have fallen about 14% since the Hubei lockdown.”  “We estimate that a return to steel-production parity means futures prices may have to trade in around $70-$75/mt, which means at current levels of almost $80/mt, iron ore remains relatively expensive.” “We note that inventory levels of iron ore in China are falling and as such, prices may stick closer to the upper end of the parity range.”  

Traders added around 5.7K contracts and volume rose by nearly 61.3k contracts on Monday, according to preliminary figures from CME Group for Gold futu

Traders added around 5.7K contracts and volume rose by nearly 61.3k contracts on Monday, according to preliminary figures from CME Group for Gold futures markets. Gold now targets $1,700/oz Prices of the ounce troy of the precious metal started the week on a positive tone and the continuation of the move up stays underpinned by rising open interest and volume. That said, the 2020 highs around $1,703 per ounce have now emerged as the next target if the buying pressure persists.

Risk On-Risk Off (RORO) is still the dominant force for FX. The USD and JPY should continue to outperform ‘risk-on’ currencies in a ‘risk-off’ environ

Risk On-Risk Off (RORO) is still the dominant force for FX. The USD and JPY should continue to outperform ‘risk-on’ currencies in a ‘risk-off’ environment, in the opinion of economists at HSBC. Key quotes “The dominance of the RORO factor suggests that markets are paying relatively little attention to the differences amongst the various policy responses delivered in the last few weeks.” “What matters appears to be the binary nature of COVID-19 and the economic fallout from the spread of the virus. If markets still think things are getting worse, then we will be firmly in ‘risk-off’ territory.” “The USD and JPY should continue to fare well, while currencies of smaller open economies – the AUD, NZD, GBP and many EM FX – will continue to struggle in a ‘risk-off’ environment.”  

The USD/JPY pair held on to its weaker tone through the early European session, albeit has managed to rebound around 20-30 pips from daily lows. The p

USD/JPY meets with some supply on Tuesday amid a modest USD pullback.Improving risk sentiment undermined the JPY and helped limit the downside.The USD/JPY pair held on to its weaker tone through the early European session, albeit has managed to rebound around 20-30 pips from daily lows. The pair met with some fresh supply on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped three consecutive days of winning streak amid a modest US dollar pullback. However, a combination of factors helped limit any deeper losses, rather assisted the pair to find some support ahead of the very important 200-day SMA. The slowing number of new coronavirus cases in the European hotspots – Italy and Spain – and the centre of the US outbreak – New York –indicated that the pandemic may be reaching its peak. The latest optimism led to a strong recovery the global risk sentiment and dented the Japanese yen's safe-haven status. The risk-on mood was reinforced by some follow-through pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. This coupled with the fact that the Japanese government is preparing to declare a state of emergency for Tokyo and other big cities further weighed on the JPY, which was also seen as a factor helping limit the downside. Meanwhile, persistent worries over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic might continue to benefit the greenback's status as the global reserve currency. This should eventually prompt some dip-buying and thus, warrant some caution before positioning for an extension of the intraday slide. Currently hovering around the 108.85-90 region, developments surrounding the coronavirus might continue to influence the pair's momentum and produce some meaningful trading opportunities amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch  

A broad recovery in risk supported the Asian currencies against the USD overnight, but should not fundamentally impinge on the upside bias for now, ac

A broad recovery in risk supported the Asian currencies against the USD overnight, but should not fundamentally impinge on the upside bias for now, according to Terence Wu from OCBC Bank. Key quotes “The SGD NEER moved higher, back to the top-end of its recent range, to +0.46% above the perceived parity (1.4369), with the implied USD/SGD thresholds moving lower on positive risk sentiment.”  “Expect near-term support for the USD/SGD at 1.4270/80.”  “We think further extensions below that level may be rejected for another test of 1.4350.”  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable is still expected to navigate within a broad consolidative fashion in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-h

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable is still expected to navigate within a broad consolidative fashion in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for ‘further GBP weakness’ was incorrect as it rose to 1.2327 before dropping sharply during late NY hours. Despite the relatively rapid decline, downward momentum has not improved by much. That said, there is chance that GBP could dip towards 1.2150. For today, a sustained decline below this level is not expected (next support is at 1.2100). Resistance is at 1.2280 followed by 1.2330.” Next 1-3 weeks: “When GBP surged to 1.2200 on 27 Mar, we indicated that the ‘recovery in GBP has scope to extend higher but prospect for a move beyond 1.2550 is not high for now’. GBP subsequently extended its gain to 1.2484, traded sideways for several days before lurching lower last Friday (03 Apr) and came close to taking out our ‘strong support’ level at 1.2205. While the ‘strong support’ is still intact, upward pressure has dissipated with the sharp and rapid decline. The immediate risk from here is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a broad1.1950/1.2420 range (a sustained decline below 1.1950 is not expected).”

Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 766B (March) vs previous 769B

Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) declined to -4.7% in March from previous -1.2%

Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM): -3.2% (March) vs previous -1.2%

Adding to the previous comments, UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said that if there is any change in PM Boris Johnson's condition then there will be

Adding to the previous comments, UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said that if there is any change in PM Boris Johnson's condition then there will be a statement released. Further quotes UK PM Johnson is not on a ventilator. UK PM Johnson has had some oxygen support. UK PM Johnson is physically full of life and fit. UK PM Johnson is a man of great zest with an appetite for life. GBP/USD reaction Amid broad-based US dollar weakness and comforting remarks from the Cabinet Minister Gove on PM Johnson’s health condition, GBP/USD is extending its bounce from weekly lows to now trade at 1.2316, up 0.71% on the day.  

A decent rebound in the Kiwi as the good vibrations continue supported by good demand for the syndicated bond, the food exports story, and the slowdow

A decent rebound in the Kiwi as the good vibrations continue supported by good demand for the syndicated bond, the food exports story, and the slowdown in new COVID-19 cases, per ANZ Bank. Key quotes “NZD/USD has performed well overnight after rejecting an attempt lower and avoiding a break of key resistance at 0.5830.”  “NZDM’s $2bn+ tap of the 2031 bond via syndication has been well received and will likely draw in offshore buyers, who will need to buy NZD.”  “The kiwi is well bid on dips; likely to remain elevated as we remain in lockdown.” “Support 0.5830 Resistance 0.6000”  

The gold previous wave high of USD 1644.54 has now been broken indicating a move higher, in the opinion of Rajan Dhall from FXStreet. Key quotes “In t

The gold previous wave high of USD 1644.54 has now been broken indicating a move higher, in the opinion of Rajan Dhall from FXStreet. Key quotes “In the US jobless claims are on the rise and employment looks like it will be hit hard. This is one of the main reasons the market may be bullish on gold. It is very hard to estimate the impact of store closures and reductions in productivity in such a short space of time.”  “The previous wave of USD 1644.54 has now been taken out to the upside. This area could be a support zone if the price pulls back, which often happens.” “The Fibonacci projections are showing some decent upside targets for the patient bulls. The 138.2% is holding at USD 1676.45 and the 161.8% is closer to the USD 1700 level at USD 1695.00.”

In an interview with broadcaster BFM TV on Tuesday, French Health Minister Olivier Veran said, “we are not yet at the stage of the peak of the COVID-1

In an interview with broadcaster BFM TV on Tuesday, French Health Minister Olivier Veran said, “we are not yet at the stage of the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic. "We are still in a worsening phase of the epidemic," Veran said. France's coronavirus figures on Monday showed that the rate of increase in fatalities at almost 9,000 jumped after several days of slowing. EUR/USD trades firmer EUR/USD cheers falling coronavirus cases in the Euro area and surprisingly upbeat German industrial output figures for February. The spot is last seen trading at 1.0833, up 0.41% on a daily basis.

France Imports, EUR rose from previous €46.231B to €47.58B in February

France Exports, EUR up to €42.36B in February from previous €40.343B

France Trade Balance EUR came in at €-5.22B, below expectations (€-4.93B) in February

France Current Account down to €-3.8B in February from previous €-2.8B

Optimism over slowing coronavirus cases/deaths eases some bearish pressure on the EUR/USD pair, FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani informs. Key quotes

Optimism over slowing coronavirus cases/deaths eases some bearish pressure on the EUR/USD pair, FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani informs. Key quotes “The lack of any strong follow-through selling now warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained weakness below the 1.0775-70 region before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move.”  “On the flip side, any subsequent recovery is likely to confront some fresh supply near the 1.0900 round-figure mark. A convincing break through might trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering move and lift the pair further towards 50-day SMA, around the 1.0970-75 region.”  

Nothing seems to have changed much for the cable and the near-term bias still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders amid the occurrence of a death

Nothing seems to have changed much for the cable and the near-term bias still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders amid the occurrence of a death-cross on the daily chart, according to FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani. Key quotes “The pair's inability to find bearish acceptance below the 1.2200 mark warrants some caution before placing any aggressive bets for any further near-term depreciating move.” “The 1.2230-25 region now seems to protect the immediate downside and is closely followed by the 1.2200 round-figure mark. Sustained weakness below the mentioned handle is likely to accelerate the fall back towards daily swing lows, around the 1.2165 region.” “On the flip side, momentum beyond the overnight swing high, around the 1.2325 region, could get extended towards the 1.2375-80 supply zone.”  

UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is in intensive care. PM Johnson’s te

UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is in intensive care. PM Johnson’s team are all working together, he added.  

FX option expiries for Apr 7 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.25 570m

FX option expiries for Apr 7 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts          108.25 570m

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 99,225, wi

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 99,225, with a total of 1,607 deaths reported on Tuesday. Cases rose by 4% to 3,834 in Germany, marking the fifth straight drop in the daily rate. The death toll jumped by 173. Despite the slowdown in the new cases, the rise in deaths doesn’t seem to be welcoming news, given that the government may want to consider scaling back the lockdown measures. Meanwhile, the number of coronavirus infections rose more than 1.32 million globally, with 74,087 deaths, according to a Reuters tally. EUR/USD reaction The shared currency remains unfazed by the German Industrial Production and virus update, as EUR/USD keeps its range around 1.0830. The focus now remains on the dollar dynamics and risk trends in the day ahead.

In light of preliminary data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, open interest and volume dropped by around 3.3K contracts and by around 9K contra

In light of preliminary data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, open interest and volume dropped by around 3.3K contracts and by around 9K contracts, respectively, at the beginning of the week. USD/JPY looks capped near 110.00 The upside in USD/JPY seems to have met a tough hurdle near 109.40 on Monday. Diminishing open interest and volume amidst the selling bias in the Japanese safe haven opens the door for a potential corrective downside in the pair in the short-term horizon.

In addition to cheering the recent weakness in coronavirus (COVID-19) figures from the US, Italy, Spain and the UK, Asian stocks also take clues from

Asian equities remain positive for the second in a row, following Wall Street gains.Coronavirus numbers from the global hotspots trigger early hopes of recovery.Policymakers from the US, Japan and New Zealand signal more aid.RBA held monetary policy unchanged.In addition to cheering the recent weakness in coronavirus (COVID-19) figures from the US, Italy, Spain and the UK, Asian stocks also take clues from the US, Japan and New Zealand’s policymakers to extend Monday’s recovery gains. In doing so, the MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rises 1.5% whereas Japan’s NIKKEI gain 1.91% by the press time of the pre-Europe session on Tuesday. As per Monday’s data from the global virus hot-spots, early signs of receding pandemic pleased the risk-takers during the first day of the week. Be it the fourth day of a slowdown in Spain’s pace of new deaths to 13,055 or the lowest in three weeks’ increase in Italy’s confirmed cases to 132,547, not to forget the UK’s third daily drop in the death toll by 439, everything turned investors cautiously optimistic. During the early-Asian session on Tuesday, comments from the US House Speak Nancy Pelosi and President Donald Trump renewed hopes of another aid package. Further to the market’s optimism were comments from New Zealand and Japan that also indicated some more helps for the global traders amid the virus fears. Even so, the RBA held its monetary policy unchanged and drowned Australia’s ASX 200 to buck the broad positive trend. While portraying the same, the US 10-year Treasury yields rise more than three basis points to regain 0.70% mark whereas US stock futures also mark near 1.0% gains by the time of writing. It’s worth mentioning that the recently released German Industrial Production data also helped markets to remain positive. Given the major attention to the coronavirus headlines, amid cautious optimism, news concerning the cure will provide an additional smile on the face of the bulls.

Despite the number of daily coronavirus cases in Italy continues slowing down over the past week, the government may only start the gradual end of loc

Despite the number of daily coronavirus cases in Italy continues slowing down over the past week, the government may only start the gradual end of lockdown measures on May 4, as cited by the Italian daily newspaper, Corriere della Sera, on Tuesday.    

Industrial Production in Germany unexpected increased in February, the official data showed on Tuesday; confirming that the manufacturing recession in

German Industrial Production rises by 0.3% MoM in February.Annualized German Industrial Production dropped by 1.2% in February.Industrial Production in Germany unexpected increased in February, the official data showed on Tuesday; confirming that the manufacturing recession in Europe's largest economy is slowing its pace. The industrial output came in at 0.3% MoM, the federal statistics authority Destatis said in figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, vs. a 0.9% drop expected and +3.0% last. On an annualized basis, the German industrial production arrived at -1.2% in February versus -3.9% expected and -1.3% booked in January. Just ahead of the industrial figures, the German IFO institute said that its index for industrial production expectations took a dive in March. The index slipped from +2.0 to -20.8. Further comments This is the most drastic slump since the survey began in 1991. Assumes that this development is still somewhat underestimated as well. Considering that most of the survey responses were received by mid-March. About German Industrial Production The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve registered at $52.458B, below expectations ($54.796B) in March

Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) came in at -1.2%, above expectations (-3.9%) in February

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted investors scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Monday, th

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted investors scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Monday, this time by almost 3K contracts. In the same direction, volume reversed two builds in a row and went down by around 5.8K contracts. GBP/USD could attempt a move to 1.2500Cable’s negative performance on Monday was accompanied by decreasing open interest and volume, signalling a limited downside and the probability of a rebound to, initially, the 1.2500 region.

South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve registered at $44.774B, below expectations ($45.184B) in March

Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (-0.9%) in February

Norway Manufacturing Output came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.2%) in February

Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) in line with expectations (2.8%) in March

Open interest in EUR futures markets shrunk by nearly 1K contracts at the beginning of the week according to advanced readings from CME Group. Volume,

Open interest in EUR futures markets shrunk by nearly 1K contracts at the beginning of the week according to advanced readings from CME Group. Volume, in the same line, decreased by around 8K contracts. EUR/USD now looks to 1.0990EUR/USD appears to have met some decent support in sub-1.0800 levels on Monday amidst declining open interest and volume. That said, the pair could now extend the rebound to the key barrier at 1.0990, or January’s low.

Gold prices have been on the rise as ample liquidity has been pushing all assets higher – including the precious metal which used to be sought in time

Gold prices have been on the rise as ample liquidity has been pushing all assets higher – including the precious metal which used to be sought in times of trouble. Ample liquidity thanks to central banks and governments are boosting XAUD/USD.   The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that gold faces some resistance at $1,666, which is the convergence of the previous 4h-high and the Bollinger Band 4h-Upper. It is followed by $1,670, where the previous daily high hits the price. The next levels to watch rate $1,676, where the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 2 and the BB 1h-Upper meet. The upside target is $1,678, which is where the all-important Fibonacci 161.8% one-week is seen. Support awaits at $1,655, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the SMA 5-4h.  The most significant cushion is at $1,646, where the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and the PP one-week R1 converge.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Having dropped the previous day, WTI holds onto recovery gains for the fourth time in preceding five days, currently up 3.1% on NYMEX Futures to 29.85

WTI benefits from recent risk-on, upbeat comments from US President Trump.Signals for further aid packages, API data will be the key to watch.Having dropped the previous day, WTI holds onto recovery gains for the fourth time in preceding five days, currently up 3.1% on NYMEX Futures to 29.85, ahead of the European session on Tuesday. The black gold earlier dropped amid growing concerns of supply glut amid Russia-Saudi Arabia rift that postponed the OPEC+ meeting from  Monday to Thursday. The energy benchmark’s recent strength could have taken clues from US President Donald Trump’s comments that nobody asked him for the US production cuts and he will decide afterward if asked. Also suggesting the move by the US oil producers were Mr. Trump’s comments that the free market will curb output ‘automatically’, as per Bloomberg. Further, the market’s positive risk-tone, mainly due to receding coronavirus (COVID-19) figures, as well as signals of further stimulus from the US, Japan and New Zealand might also have pleased the commodity traders. While portraying the risk-tone, the US Treasury yields and Asian stocks remain mostly positive by the press time. Oil traders may now wait for the private weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), prior 10.485M, for fresh direction. Though, this week’s meeting by the OPEC+ group will be the key to follow. It should be noted that Russia and Saudi Arabia have signaled further cuts in the output whereas the US was the latest entry to the list. Technical analysis 21-day SMA near $27.75, Friday’s high near $29.00 and $30.00 round-figure offer nearby resistance to the oil benchmark while sellers may look for entry below 10-day SMA level of $24.95.

FX Strategists at UOB Group still believe EUR/USD could grind lower in the next weeks, although a test of 2020 low at 1.0635 appears unlikely. Key Quo

FX Strategists at UOB Group still believe EUR/USD could grind lower in the next weeks, although a test of 2020 low at 1.0635 appears unlikely. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for EUR to ‘edge higher towards 1.0860’ did not materialize as it traded in a relatively narrow range between 1.0766 and 1.0834 (68 pips), the smallest 1-day range in about 1-1/2 months. The underlying tone has weakened somewhat and this could lead to EUR drifting lower to 1.0750. For today, the next support at 1.0700 is not expected to come into the picture. Resistance is at 1.0835 followed by 1.0870.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Friday (03 Apr, spot at 1.0840). As highlighted, while there is room for EUR to weaken further, it is premature to expect a revisit of the March low of 1.0635 (1.0700 is already a strong support). To look at it another way, EUR is under mild downward pressure and could continue to edge lower in the coming days. On the upside, a break above 1.0930 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.0980) would indicate the mild downward pressure has eased.”

Citing two sources close to the UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson, Reuters reports that there is said to be no change to the PM health condition. m

Citing two sources close to the UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson, Reuters reports that there is said to be no change to the PM health condition.    more to come ...

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 4: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in intensive care and receiving oxygen amid complications from C

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 4: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in intensive care and receiving oxygen amid complications from COVID-19. The dramatic news has sent the pound lower after previous messages from the government aimed to calm the public. Foreign secretary Dominic Raab has taken over as the UK is set to reach the peak of the disease in the coming days.  Elsewhere, the market mood remains upbeat, with the dollar down and Gold resuming its rally. The precious metal is getting comfortable above $1,650. Asian markets are on the rise and S&P futures are stable after a robust rally on Monday. Italy, Spain, France, and Germany continued reporting encouraging coronavirus figures in both the number of infections and deaths. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte refused to talk about easing restrictions, but exit strategies are being drawn across the continent.More stimulus: Stocks also advanced in response to the White House seemingly supporting another stimulus package, including handing out more money to Americans as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested. Eurozone: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the EU is in the most difficult moment since its establishment as the crisis triggers substantial economic damage across the old continent and leaders are at loggerheads around issuing mutual bonds. German and French economic data predating coronavirus is due out.  Global COVID-19 cases have topped 1.3 million and taken the lives of nearly 75,000. US cases top 360,000. AUD/USD: The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the interest rates unchanged as expected and hinted it would taper down liquidity injections. AUD/USD has been on the rise in response. Japan is entering a month-long state of emergency and imposing restrictions in several areas, including the capital Tokyo. Oil is on the rise amid reports that the OPEC+ is getting closer to an agreement to cut production. Russia and Saudi Arabia are negotiating an accord that may also include other countries. A videoconference is scheduled for Thursday.Cryptocurrencies have been consolidating their gains, with Bitcoin trading above $7,000.  More Explained: Which indicators matter in coronavirus times

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), seems to have met some important resistance in the vicinity of the 101.00 mark on Monday, sparki

DXY retreats from tops just below the 101.00 mark.Focus remains on COVID-19 and its impact on the economy.Fed’s Consumer Credit figures next on the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), seems to have met some important resistance in the vicinity of the 101.00 mark on Monday, sparking the ongoing retracement to the 100.50 region. US Dollar Index looks to coronavirus, risk trends After four consecutive daily advances, including fresh multi-day peaks in the boundaries of the 101.00 mark on Monday, the index met some resistance and triggered a corrective downside to the current 100.50/40 band. In the meantime, a fresh wave of appetite for riskier assets has emerged as of late following renewed optimism in the Old Continent, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to lose traction particularly in Spain and Italy. Across the pond, however, the US is bracing for a hard impact as infected cases and deaths are expected to reach maximum levels in the next days. Later in the US data space, the only release of note will be the Fed’s Consumer Credit figures ahead of Initial Claims, Producer Prices and the advanced gauge of the Consumer Sentiment, all due on Thursday amidst the shortened trading week due to the Easter holidays. What to look for around USD DXY remains bid above the 100.00 mark despite Tuesday’s corrective downside and following last week’s lows in the 98.30 region. In the meantime, attention remains on the progress of the COVID-19 in the US and the impact on the economy, which is seen slipping back into recession later this year. On the supportive side for the buck, market participants seem to prefer the dollar vs. other safe havens like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in cases when risk aversion kicks in, all helped by its status of “global reserve currency” and store of value. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is retreating 0.35% at 100.44 and faces the next support at 99.91 (monthly high Feb.20) followed by 98.27 (weekly low Mar.27) and then 98.11 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break above 100.93 (weekly/monthly high Apr.6) would open the door to 101.34 (monthly high Apr.10 2017) and finally 102.99 (2020 high Mar.20).

The risk-on sentiment extended into Asia this Tuesday amid improving coronavirus situation in the global hotspots. Asian stocks tracked the Wall Stree

The risk-on sentiment extended into Asia this Tuesday amid improving coronavirus situation in the global hotspots. Asian stocks tracked the Wall Street higher, except for the Australian markets. The US equity futures, however, traded on the back foot, as concerns still linger over the economic impact of the lockdowns across the globe to curb the virus spread. Therefore, the safe-havens such as gold, the yen and Swiss franc were strongly bid while the US dollar lost some ground across the board, as markets weigh in US President Donald Trump’s comments that he wants to try to lift restrictions on April 30 and also that he backs the second fiscal stimulus package. Within the G10 fx space, USD/JPY snapped the recent winning streak and fell sharply lower to near 108.70 region on broad dollar weakness and Japan’s declaration of the state of emergency to fight the infectious disease. The Aussie extended the early gains above 0.6150 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the key interest rate on hold at its April monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, the Kiwi looked to regain 0.6000 despite RBNZ’s expansion of its latest asset purchase program. Among the European currencies, EUR/USD held onto gains above 1.0800 while the pound ignored the news about the UK PM Boris Johnson’s health conditions and jumped back to 1.2300. Oil prices rallied 3% ahead of the OPEC+ meeting while Gold prices on NYMEX extended gains above 1700 mark. Main topics in Asia US House Speaker Pelosi tells Democrats: Next stimulus to be at least $1 trillion – Bloomberg UK’s Raab says Boris Johnson is ‘in safe hands’ and hails ‘strong spirit’ as he takes charge of government – The Sun US Pres. Trump: Next week, week and a half will show big surge of virus Trump: Could very well do a second round of direct payments to Americans US Pres. Trump: Wants to try to lift the restrictions on April 30th Mexico reports total cass 2,493 and deaths of 125 China's Hubei province reports zero new cases on April 6th vs zero on April 5th Australian Trade Balance, Feb: A$ +4,361 mln, s/adj (Reuters poll: A$+3,650 mln) Japan’s Nishimura: State of emergency to remain in effect until May 6 Coronavirus update: UK PM Johnson is 'extremely sick' and may need a ventilator – Sky News RBNZ to extend QE to NZD 33bn now, Kiwi stays above 0.5950 Key focus ahead         On the data front, the immediate focus shifts towards the German Industrial Production for February due at 0600 GMT, which is unlikely to have any impact on the shared currency, as it doesn’t include the coronavirus crisis period that heighten across Europe in March. The UK docket sees the second-liner Halifax House Price Index (HPI) Besides, the market sentiment will remain at the mercy of the virus-related updates and US dollar dynamics. Meanwhile, oil traders will look forward to fresh OPEC headlines and President Trump’s tariffs decision on Saudi and Russian oil production. When is the German Industrial Production and how could it affect EUR/USD? Germany will publish Industrial Production data for February at 06:00 GMT. If the data shows the manufacturing output was already facing renewed slowdown ahead of the coronavirus crisis seen in March, the Euro may go on the offer, possibly challenging support at 1.0770. GBP/USD cheers US dollar pullback amid concerns over UK PM Johnson’s health GBP/USD snaps two-day losing streak, bounces off weekly low. UK PM Johnson is extremely weak, Foreign Secretary Raab will take over the Cobra and cabinet meetings. Risk tone stays positive on early signs that coronavirus numbers are declining from the global hotspots. US government likely to provide another round of coronavirus fiscal package - Goldman Sachs The US government is likely to pass at least one more fiscal relief package, which could include additional funding for small businesses. Japan PM Abe wants to declare one-month state of emergency for seven prefectures on Tuesday According to Bloomberg and Reuters, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to declare a one-month state of emergency on Tuesday, April 7, for seven prefectures.

The Swiss Franc is drawing bids on Tuesday, pushing the USD/CHF lower toward for the first time after March 27. The pair is currently trading at sessi

USD/CHF has violated the key rising trendline support. A move below 0.9744 would confirm a double top breakdown. The Swiss Franc is drawing bids on Tuesday, pushing the USD/CHF lower toward for the first time after March 27.  The pair is currently trading at session lows near 0.9755, down 0.30 percent loss on the day. The spot closed Monday with a 0.27% gain, confirming a six-day winning streak.  The 4-hour chart shows the pair has dived out of an ascending trendline, indicating an end of the rally from the March 29 low of 0.9502 and appears on track to test the support at 0.9744 - the neckline support of the double top pattern. The pair has failed twice in the last two trading days to chew through offers near 0.98.  Acceptance under 0.9744 would confirm a double top breakdown and open the doors to 0.9690 (target as per the measured height method).  On the higher side, a convincing move above 0.98 is needed to revive the bullish setup.  4-hour chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels
 

Japan Coincident Index came in at 95.8, above forecasts (95.1) in February

Japan Leading Economic Index above forecasts (90.4) in February: Actual (92.1)

Following the RBA’s no rate change announcement, not to forget upbeat remarks, AUD/NZD extends recovery gains from 21-day SMA to a one-week high of 1.

AUD/NZD probes the monthly resistance line after RBA’s no rate change.50-day SMA adds to the upside barriers.A three-week-old rising trend line offers additional support.Following the RBA’s no rate change announcement, not to forget upbeat remarks, AUD/NZD extends recovery gains from 21-day SMA to a one-week high of 1.0289, currently near 1.0277, amid the early Tuesday. The pair currently confronts the short-term rising trend line, at 1.0295, ahead of targeting a 50-day SMA level of 1.0340. However, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 1.0340 will enable it to question March month top surrounding 1.0535. Meanwhile, a daily closing below 21-day SMA level of 1.0215 can drag the quote to the near-term rising support line, currently at 1.0175. AUD/NZD daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

The bid tone around the Aussie dollar strengthened, pushing the AUD/JPY to a fresh session high above 66.80 after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA

AUD/JPY jumped from 66.60 to session highs above 66.80 after RBA's rate decision. RBA keeps rates unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. The central bank said the size of bond purchases and their frequency may be reduced if conditions improve. The bid tone around the Aussie dollar strengthened, pushing the AUD/JPY to a fresh session high above 66.80 after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) status quo policy decision. The central bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected and retained the yield curve control program launched last month. The RBA said that it will do what is necessary to keep the three-year government bond yield at the target of 0.25% and warned of a very large economic contraction in the second quarter that could push the jobless rate to the highest level for many years. The central bank achieved the YCC target last week and since then has tapered the bond purchases to $2 billion per day.  The bank added that the size and the frequency of the bond purchases will likely be reduced if conditions improve. That likely put a bid under the Aussie dollar, lifting the AUD/JPY higher. The Aussie dollar ignored the dismal domestic data released early Tuesday, which showed a 10 percent plunge in the job openings in March.  The pair could gain further if the equity markets extend Monday's sharp rally, which saw major US indices eke out 7% gains.  Technical levels  

Following are the key headlines from the April RBA monetary policy statement (via Reuters): Will do what is necessary to achieve yields target on 3-ye

Following are the key headlines from the April RBA monetary policy statement (via Reuters): Will do what is necessary to achieve yields target on 3-year bonds at 0.25%. Coordinated monetary and fiscal response will soften expected economic contraction. Once the virus is contained, a recovery in the global economy is expected. A very large economic contraction is, however, expected to be recorded in Q2. Unemployment rate is expected to increase to its highest level for many years. If conditions continue to improve, it is likely that smaller and less frequent bond purchases will be required. Operations at longer terms will continue, but the frequency of these operations will be adjusted as necessary according to market conditions.

With the RBA matching the most market consensus of a no change in the current monetary policy, AUD/USD stays mildly positive, despite declining 10-pip

AUD/USD remains positive after RBA matched wide market expectations of no change in the monetary policy.Trade sentiment remains positive amid clues of further stimulus.Aussie data flashed downbeat figures during early Asia, the market price in further rate cuts.Virus updates, measures to combat the pandemic could offer fresh impetus.With the RBA matching the most market consensus of a no change in the current monetary policy, AUD/USD stays mildly positive, despite declining 10-pips to 0.6115, amid the early Tuesday. Read: RBA keeps Official Cash Rate steady at 0.25%, AUD/USD little changed Following signals of additional stimulus from the US President Donald Trump and House Speak Nancy Pelosi, policymakers from Japan and New Zealand also hinted further aid to fight against the deadly virus. US President Trump urged China for help while also criticized Indian PM Modi for restricting a medicine’s exports. The market’s risk-tone recovered on Monday as figures from Spain, Italy and the UK receded further from their recent tops. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain positive near 0.69% whereas Australia’s ASX 200 drops further below 5,250 as the central bank dashed hopes of additional stimulus. Even so, most markets in Asia-Pacific mark gains by the press time. Earlier during the day, Aussie trade balance and ANZ Job Advertisements and AiG Performance of Services Index flashed downbeat figures. Looking forward, investors will pay attention to the global developments surrounding the pandemic for fresh impulse whereas the US JOLTS Job Openings could offer additional data for direction. Technical analysis With the sustained trading beyond a month-old falling trend line, currently near 0.6100, buyers can target March-end top close to 0.6215 during the further upside. Meanwhile, 21-day SMA near 0.6070 can question the pair’s declines below the resistance-turned-immediate support line.  

At its scheduled April monetary policy meeting held Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains its official cash rate (OCR) at a record lo

At its scheduled April monetary policy meeting held Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains its official cash rate (OCR) at a record low of 0.25%, as widely expected. The RBA, at its emergency meeting on March 19 slashed the key rate by 25bps from 0.50% to 0.25% and announced a quantitative easing (QE) program to help the economy cushion the blow from the coronavirus pandemic. more to come ... About RBA rate decision RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision: 0.25%

Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) down to 1.4% in March from previous 1.6%

While paying a little heed to the UK PM Boris Johnson’s critical conditions on the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), GBP/USD registers mild gains of 0.28% to

GBP/USD snaps two-day losing streak, bounces off weekly low.UK PM Johnson is extremely weak, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will lead the Cobra and cabinet meetings for him.Risk tone stays positive on early signs that coronavirus numbers are declining from the global hotspots.UK experts doubt the recent declines in the death toll.While paying a little heed to the UK PM Boris Johnson’s critical conditions on the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), GBP/USD registers mild gains of 0.28% to 1.2265 ahead of the London open on Tuesday. The reason could be traced from the broad US dollar pullback amid the recovery in the market’s risk sentiment. The US President Donald Trump showed readiness to announce another aid package following the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hints for the same. This boosted the market’s risk-tone following initial fears on President Trump’s statement that Next week, a week and a half will show a big surge of the virus. Also supporting the market’s trade sentiment could be signals of further/extended stimulus from Japan and New Zealand. On the other hand, updates via the Sky News suggest that the UK PM Johnson’s health conditions are likely to deteriorate further. The national leader has already transferred the rights to preside administration meetings and lead the UK through the pandemic to the Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab during the day. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields remain mostly positive around 0.68% with major Asian stocks marking gains. While receding fears of the pandemic were earlier attributed to the declining figures from Spain, Italy and the UK, the recent drop in the British death toll from the top of April 04 figures of 708 to 439 on April 06 seems doubtful as per the experts, said The Sun. Moving on, investors will keep eyes on the virus updates and the government/central bank efforts to combat the deadly disease for near-term direction. Technical analysis Unless clearing a range between 10-day SMA and 21-day SMA, respectively near 1.2290 and 1.2180, the pair likely to remain sideways. However, bulls will have an additional upside barrier in the form of a monthly resistance line, near 1.2350, to observe beyond 10-day SMA.  

Germany, Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse, will publish Industrial Production data for February at 06:00 GMT. The output is forecasted to have cont

Overview Germany, Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse, will publish Industrial Production data for February at 06:00 GMT.  The output is forecasted to have contracted by 0.9% month-on-month, having risen by 3% in the previous month. The annualized figure is expected to come in at -3.9% compared to -1.3% in January.  Downturn eased in February? The downturn in Germany's manufacturing sector eased in February, despite coronavirus-led supply chain disruption, according to IHS Markit/BME Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).  The headline figure rose to a 13-month high of 48.0 in February, up from January's reading of 45.3. The upward pressure came from of its component, with output, new orders, employment and stocks of purchases each falling at slower rates, according to the official report.  A reading below 50 indices contraction, however, the rise from 45.3 to 48.00 represents an easing of the rate of contraction.  As a result, the possibility of Germany's industrial production bettering estimates cannot be ruled out.  Impact on EUR/USD Macro data dating back to February is of little relevance now, as it is generally accepted by now that the coronavirus outbreak, which gathered pace across the Eurozone in March, may have pushed the economy into a recession.  As a result, a big beat in Germany's industrial production for February may not yield a big positive reaction in EUR/USD, more so, as the futures tied to the S&P 500 futures are currently reporting a 0.60% drop and could draw bids for the US dollar. On the other hand, if the data shows the manufacturing output was already facing renewed slowdown ahead of the coronavirus crisis seen in March, the single currency may go on the offer, possibly challenging support at 1.0770. The pair has bounced at least two times from that level since Friday.  About German Industrial Production The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to Bloomberg and Reuters, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to declare a one-month state of emergency on Tuesday, April 7, for seven

According to Bloomberg and Reuters, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to declare a one-month state of emergency on Tuesday, April 7, for seven prefectures. Meanwhile, PM Abe said that he wants to make the cash handouts as quickly as possible. The government seems to be working on 3,00,000 yen of cash payments. Reuters reports that Tokyo Governor Koike already declared an emergency last night. The ramifications for both declarations will be massive but may not result in as tight a lockdown as many feared. In the last hour, the Japanese Advisory Panel approved the state of emergency, as cited by the Kyodo news agency. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Snaps three-day winning streak, but above 200-day SMA Japan’s Nishimura: State of emergency to remain in effect until May 6

In the latest statement released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Tuesday, the central bank will extend its asset purchasing program (QE)

In the latest statement released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Tuesday, the central bank will extend its asset purchasing program (QE) to a total of NZD 33bn now.   more to come ...

Morgan Stanley’s India Economist, Upasana Chachra, said in her latest client note, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is seen falling to a 29

Morgan Stanley’s India Economist, Upasana Chachra, said in her latest client note, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is seen falling to a 29-year low of 2.2% this financial year before recovering to 5.5% next year. Key quotes “We expect a gradual recovery in growth, since disruptions related to Covid-19 have occurred at a weak starting point of the growth cycle. As such, we expect a natural rebound in economic activity as lockdown measures ease. Expect New Delhi to provide additional temporary fiscal package of approximately 1% of GDP through combination of increasing fuel taxes and widening headline fiscal deficit to 5%. Expect 40 basis points of rate cuts, expects central bank to continue to provide adequate liquidity through long-term repo operations and targeted long-term repo operations. If growth conditions take longer to recover, a temporary liquidity support window for NBFC's and mutual funds can be considered.”

NZD/USD takes the bids near 0.5960 during the early Tuesday. In doing so, the pair remains inside a one-week-old descending trend channel while also s

NZD/USD holds onto recovery gains, confronts 50% Fibonacci retracement.A confluence of 200-bar SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement becomes an important upside barrier.Bullish MACD, sustained trading beyond 38.2% Fibonacci retracement keeps buyers hopeful.NZD/USD takes the bids near 0.5960 during the early Tuesday. In doing so, the pair remains inside a one-week-old descending trend channel while also staying below 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous month’s upside. The kiwi pair’s ability to stay beyond 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, amid bullish MACD, seems to favor the buyers, which in turn questions the channel’s resistance, around 0.6000 now. In a case where the bulls manage to successfully cross 0.6000 mark, a confluence of 200-bar SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6080/85 becomes crucial resistance. On the contrary, the pair’s declines below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.5845 needs validation through the channel’s support line, currently at 0.5830. NZD/USD four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

USD/CAD is losing altitude in Asia, having suffered a pennant breakdown on Monday. The pair is currently trading in the red near 1.4090, having faced

USD/CAD faced rejection near 1.4140 early Monday and is currently sitting in the red around 1.4090. A pennant breakdown seen in the 4H chart suggests scope for deeper losses. USD/CAD is losing altitude in Asia, having suffered a pennant breakdown on Monday.  The pair is currently trading in the red near 1.4090, having faced rejection above 1.4140 early Tuesday. he currency pair dived out of a contracting triangle or a pennant pattern almost 24 hours ago, signaling a continuation of the pullback from the March 23 high of 1.4547 and opening the doors for a re-test of 1.3921 (March 27 low).  Monday's bearish outside bar candle also indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside.  A 4-hour close above 1.4250 is needed to revive the bullish view. Multiple 4-hour candles have failed to establish a foothold above that level over the last seven days.  4-hour chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

In the view of Marko Kolanovic, a quantitative strategist at JPMorgan, they have seen a peak in the new case growth of coronavirus in the US. Key quot

In the view of Marko Kolanovic, a quantitative strategist at JPMorgan, they have seen a peak in the new case growth of coronavirus in the US. Key quotes "We believe we've seen a peak in new case growth in the US 3-4 days ago. Deaths will peak in about a week. So, we look for a limited reopening of the economy in 1-2 weeks. We think we will be able to recover the losses in equities sometime next year."

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is all set to announce the latest monetary policy decision at 4:30 am GMT on Tuesday. The central bank is widely e

RBA overview The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is all set to announce the latest monetary policy decision at 4:30 am GMT on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 0.25% and retain the yield curve control program launched in March.  Focus on yield curve control The policy focus for today’s meeting will be on the Yield Curve Control (YCC ) policy, according to analysts at Australia New Zealand (ANZ) bank.  We will be interested to see whether the RBA will signal that further tapering is on the way. There is a natural tapering this week and next, with the Easter holiday reducing the number of days on which the RBA will purchase bonds.  We think the RBA will stick with four days of purchases after the Easter break, but maintain purchases at AUD 2 billion per day for a while longer. Such a move would signal that the RBA is happy with a relatively steep bond curve and current semi spreads to bond. In our view this would be interpreted as a tightening of policy relative to what other countries are doing, with unwanted implications for curve slope, spreads and potentially the AUD. Markets price in future rate cuts The ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures implied yield curve shows investors expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in July.  Impact on AUD AUD/USD is better bid around 0.6120 at press time and will likely extend gains if the RBA's policy statement shows bigger tapering is on the way. Daily bond purchases were reduced from AUD 3 billion to AUD 2 billion following the achievement of the YCC target last week.  About the RBA rate decision RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.
Citing a medical expert, Sky News reports that the UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is "extremely sick" and it is very likely he will need a ventilator.   more to come ...

US President Donald Trump made a statement at a daily briefing late Monday, citing that he wants to try to lift the restrictions on April 30th. Furthe

US President Donald Trump made a statement at a daily briefing late Monday, citing that he wants to try to lift the restrictions on April 30th. Further, he threatened India's Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi with retaliation over hydroxychloroquine. He said that he does not like that decision. President Trump made the request for releasing the hold on hydroxychloroquine in a phone call with PM Modi on Sunday. This comes after India decided against exporting hydroxychloroquine, an effective anti-malaria drug touted as a “game-changer” in the fight against the coronavirus despite its untested efficacy. US dollar reaction The US dollar is seeing some fresh weakness against its main peers amid an improved market mood, as reflected by the risk-on action in the Asian equities. The US dollar index drops 0.07% to 100.59 lows, having faced rejection near 100.80 region earlier today.  

Indonesia's Rupiah (IDR) is better bid at press time and could continue to gain ground against the US dollar in the short-term, according to technical

USD/IDR's daily chart is reporting a bearish divergence of a key indicator.The pair risks falling to 16,000 in the short-term. Indonesia's Rupiah (IDR) is better bid at press time and could continue to gain ground against the US dollar in the short-term, according to technical charts.  The USD/IDR currency pair is currently trading in the red at 16,377, having hit a high of 16,645 early Tuesday.  The pair could slide further toward 16,000, as the 14-day relative strength index is reporting a bearish divergence, which occurs when the indicator prints lower highs as opposed to higher highs on the price chart.  The bearish divergence occurred on April 1, when the pair hit a record high of 17,670 and the indicator printed a lower high and was confirmed on Monday with the indicator's drop below 70.  The RSI has also breached the ascending trendline, indicating an end of the uptrend from January lows near 13,200.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels   

Additional quotes Testing more people. Growth in new cases remains consistent. Suggests what we are doing is working. Always the possibility of setba

 Additional quotesTesting more people. Growth in new cases remains consistent. Suggests what we are doing is working. Always the possibility of setbacks, but we appear to be on track.

USD/JPY drops to 108.88, down 0.30% amid the Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the pair snaps the previous three-day winning streak but stays abo

USD/JPY pulls back from one-week high.200-day SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement restrict immediate downside.109.65/70 seems to guard the immediate upside.USD/JPY drops to 108.88, down 0.30% amid the Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the pair snaps the previous three-day winning streak but stays above the near-term key supports, namely 200-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of February-March declines. Should the quote declines below 108.30 and 108.00 nearby supports, the month-start low near 106.90 could stop sellers from targeting a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 106.70. In a case where the bears dominate past-106.70, an area comprising March 05 low and March 10 low, around 106.00, will be the key. Meanwhile, a horizontal region including multiple tops and bottoms since late-February around 109.65/70 will guard the pair’s near-term advances. USD/JPY daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

AUD/NZD has been drifting higher his week and has already broken yesterday's high and resistance as risk-on markets see the Australian dollar outperfo

AUD/NZD holding firm aha of the RBA in a risk-on environment.AUD catching abid across the board as new cases of COVID-19 slow.AUD/NZD has been drifting higher his week and has already broken yesterday's high and resistance as risk-on markets see the Australian dollar outperforming. At the time of writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 0.6126, between a low of 0.6075 and a high of 0.6128, +0.63% on the session so far in Asia ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision.  First of all, we have just had the Australian Trade Balance. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4,361m in February 2020, a decrease of $384m on the surplus in January 2020. There was a muted reaction to the data though and there was a fall in both exports and imports which was to be expected considering the COVID-19 crisis.  Markets are taking the viewpoint that there will be a peak at some stage Instead, markets are taking the viewpoint that there will be a peak at some stage (perhaps sooner than later) and the economies around the world will start to get back to some form of 'normality', with there being a light at the end of the tunnel. The cases of contagion have slowed and today's data showed no new cases in Hubei again. Markets are higher and the Aussie is catching a bid. Meanwhile, the RBA’s policy rate decision is due but with the cash rate at its “effective lower bound”, the focus is now on the RBA’s yield curve control. "Of interest will be the Board’s assessment of their measures thus far, and whether an adjustment is required. Westpac does not expect any adjustments to be made at the April meeting," analysts at Westpac explained.  AUD/NZD levels      

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, predicts the US will see a severe downturn along with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, predicts the US will see a severe downturn along with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008. Dimon said that JP Morgan is preparing for a 35% plunge in economic growth and a rise in the jobless rate to 14%.  Dimon made the predictions in his annual letter to shareholders. 

Gold steps back from an intraday high of $1,674.15 to $1,663 during Tuesday’s Asian session. Even so, the yellow metal registers 0.20% gains while als

Gold benefits from a sustained risk recovery.Receding cases from Europe, upbeat statement from US President Trump favor the yellow metal off-late.Coronavirus updates, global policymakers’ policies to combat the virus remain as the key catalysts.Gold steps back from an intraday high of $1,674.15 to $1,663 during Tuesday’s Asian session. Even so, the yellow metal registers 0.20% gains while also staying near to the recently flashed four-week high. The yellow metal’s recent upside could be attributed to the market’s risk recovery based on the improvements in the coronavirus (COVID-19) data from Italy and Spain, as well as US President Donald Trump’s readiness to announce another aid package to combat the virus. Also supporting the risk-on sentiment are Japan’ PM Shinzo Abe’s signals for the stimulus and China’s pandemic details. It’s worth mentioning that the US President also cited China’s purchase worth of $40-50 billion of the US agricultural products while also asking for help from the dragon nation to fight against the deadly virus. The recent data from China’s Hubei suggests a sustained no new cases of the disease on April 06. Amid all these catalysts, US 10-year treasury yields remain positive around 0.68% whereas stocks in China and Japan also mark gains by the press time. Investors will now wait for fresh virus updates and/or the global policymakers’ combat for further impetus. Technical analysis While the yellow metal’s sustained trading beyond March 26 top suggests its further upside, an ascending trend line since March 13, 2020, near $1,685, seems to be the immediate resistance to watch. On the downside, the metal’s declines below March 26 high around $1,645 can drag the quote to a short-term rising support line around $1,624.  

In a press briefing on Tuesday, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that the state of emergency to remain in effect until May 6. more t

In a press briefing on Tuesday, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that the state of emergency to remain in effect until May 6.   more to come ...

AUD/JPY continues to trade in the green despite the dismal Aussie data released at 01:30 GMT. Australia's trade surplus narrowed to 4,361 million in F

Aussie trade data and jobs figure released at 01:30 GMT failed to move the needle in the Aussie pairs. AUD/JPY could face losses as the S&P 500 futures have surrendered gains. AUD/JPY continues to trade in the green despite the dismal Aussie data released at 01:30 GMT.  Australia's trade surplus narrowed to 4,361 million in February from January's 5,210 million. Exports dropped 5% in February following January's 3% decline. Meanwhile, imports fell by 4%, having dropped by 3% in January.  More importantly, the ANZ Job Advertisements dropped by 10.3%, compared to an estimated contraction of 2.9% versus February's rise of 0.7%.  So far, the Aussie data has not had any impact on the Aussie dollar, leaving the AUD/JPY largely unaffected near 66.60. That Australia's economy slowed down sharply in March is generally accepted by now and priced in. Therefore, macro data dating back to February and March is of little relevance now. Hence, its not surprising that the AUD/JPY is barely moving in response to the data released at 01:30 GMT.  Looking forward, the pair may drop into the red under 66.37, as the futures on the S&P 500 have erased gains and are now reporting a 0.20% decline. If the losses are extended, the anti-risk yen may draw bids.  The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold the monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday, having cut rates to zero lower bound and launched the yield curve control program last month. That said, the underlying tone of the policy statement will be eyed by traders.  Technical levels  

Downbeat Aussie trade numbers fail to disappoint the AUD/USD pair buyers as the quote registers 0.40% gains to 0.6115 after the data release during th

AUD/USD extends recovery gains despite downbeat Australian trade numbers.Upbeat comments from US President Trump superseded the Aussie AiG Performance of Services Index.RBA is widely anticipated to stand pat, monetary policy statement will be the key.Downbeat Aussie trade numbers fail to disappoint the AUD/USD pair buyers as the quote registers 0.40% gains to 0.6115 after the data release during the Asian session on Tuesday. February month Australian trade numbers suggest an overall decline in Trade Balance to 4,61M versus 5,210M prior. Details suggest the Exports and Imports have declined -4.0% and -5.0% respectively against -3.0% priors for each. Read: Australian Trade Balance, Feb: A$ +4,361 mln, s/adj (Reuters poll: A$+3,650 mln) Early in Asia, US President Donald Trump showed readiness to avail ships for the coronavirus patients of New York and New Jersey while citing fears of “a big surge of the virus” during this Task Force Briefings. Also supporting the risk could be US President Trump's readiness to announce another aid package. While the initial statements questioned the market’s previous risk-tone, the following comments asking help from China and signaling the dragon nation’s increase in US agricultural products seem to have favored the trade sentiment afterward. As a result, the US 10-year treasury yields remain positive near 0.685% whereas most Asian equities and the US stock futures mark gains by the press time. On the data front, Australia’s AiG Performance of Services Index slipped below the previous 47 to 38.7. Moving on, the Aussie traders will keep eyes on the RBA, up for a decision at 04:30 GMT, for fresh impulse. Even if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) isn’t expected to alter the present monetary policy, the tone of the RBA Rate Statement will be the key. Technical analysis A sustained break of monthly trend line resistance, currently at 0.6100, becomes necessary for the bulls to aim for March-end top close to 0.6215. On the downside, 21-day SMA near 0.6070 limits immediate declines.  

Australia Feb trade balance arrived as A$+4,361 mln, s/adj vs the Reuters poll: of A$+3,650 mln. Key notes Australia Feb goods/services exports -5 pct

Australia Feb trade balance arrived as A$+4,361 mln, s/adj vs the Reuters poll: of A$+3,650 mln. Key notes Australia Feb goods/services exports -5 pct MoM, Seasonally adjusted. Australia Feb goods/services imports -4 pct MoM, seasonally adjusted. Analysts at Westpac reminded ahead of the data that Australia imposed an effective ban on arrivals from mainland China on 1 February, dealing a major blow to tourism and education exports which made for high uncertainty over this data. Description The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade BalanceAUD/USD Forecast: Advancing ahead of the RBA´s decision

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements below expectations (-2.9%) in March: Actual (-10.3%)

Australia Imports: -4% (February) vs previous -3%

Australia Trade Balance dipped from previous 5210M to 4361M in February

Australia Exports fell from previous -3% to -5% in February

The US government is likely to pass at least one more fiscal relief package, which could include additional funding for small businesses, increased un

The US government is likely to pass at least one more fiscal relief package, which could include additional funding for small businesses, increased unemployment benefits and possibly another round of direct cash transfers to individuals, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.  Congress has so far delivered three bipartisan bills to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. The CARES act, which unveiled a record stimulus of $2 trillion, is the largest of the three bills.   

Reuters reports that Mainland China reported 32 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus, down from 39 cases a day earlier, the National Health Commissi

Reuters reports that Mainland China reported 32 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus, down from 39 cases a day earlier, the National Health Commission said on Tuesday. All of the new confirmed cases reported on Monday involved travellers arriving from overseas, bringing the overall number of imported infections so far to 983, the health authority said in its statement. The total number of confirmed cases in mainland China stood at 81,740 as of Monday, according to the authority. Key notes Mainland China reports 32 new confirmed cases of coronavirus on April 6 vs 39 on April 5.
Mainland China reports zero new coronavirus deaths on April 6 vs 1 death on April 5.
Mainland China's total number of confirmed coronavirus cases reaches 81,740 as of end-April 6.
Mainland China's imported coronavirus cases at 983 as of end-April 6, up 32 from day earlier.
Mainland China reports 30 new asymptomatic coronavirus cases on April 6 vs 78 on April 5.
China's Hubei province reports zero new cases on April 6 vs zero on April 5.
China's Hubei province reports zero new deaths on April 6 vs 1 on April 5.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0939 versus Friday's fix at 7.1104.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0939 versus Friday's fix at 7.1104.

Despite bouncing off one-week low, GBP/USD remains within 10-day and 21-day SMA area while taking rounds to 1.2238, up 0.05%, amid the Asian session o

GBP/USD snaps two-day losing streak.10-day and 21-day SMA limit immediate moves below the monthly resistance line.March 20 top on bears’ radar during further declines.Despite bouncing off one-week low, GBP/USD remains within 10-day and 21-day SMA area while taking rounds to 1.2238, up 0.05%, amid the Asian session on Tuesday. While the pair’s latest pullback from 21-day SMA propels it towards a 10-day SMA level of 1.2290, 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous month’s drop as well as a four-week-old falling trend line, respectively near 1.2305 and 1.2355, could challenge the buyers. Should there be a clear run-up past-1.2355, the pair buyers will target 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2520. Alternatively, a daily close below 21-day SMA level of 1.2180 will gradually drag the quote towards 1.20000 mark ahead of highlighting March 20 top near 1.1935. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell by over 8% on Monday, ending a three-day winning streak, which saw prices rise from $19.94 to $29.11. The black

WTI oil dropped on Monday on oversupply concerns. Production cuts by OPEC and Russia are unlikely to help rebalance oil markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell by over 8% on Monday, ending a three-day winning streak, which saw prices rise from $19.94 to $29.11.  The black gold fell as Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to delay an emergency meeting to discuss output cuts shifted focus back to oversupply concerns, which were bolstered after Genscape reported that inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, rose by about 5.8 million barrels last week.  If the U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday confirms Genscape's figures, it would be the fifth straight weekly inventory build at the hub and the biggest weekly rise since 2004.  Prices rallied sharply last week after President Trump said he had brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output. The Kingdom, along with its OPEC allies and Russia, was scheduled to discuss output cuts on Monday. The meeting, however, was postponed to Thursday. A majority of analysts are of the opinion that oil markets would remain oversupplied even if the group agrees to cut output by 15 million barrels per day. The coronavirus outbreak across the globe has brought unprecedented demand destruction and prices may need to go as low as $10 or below to rebalance the market.  At press time, a barrel of WTI is changing hands near $26.86, representing a 2% gain on the day.  Technical levels Resistance: $28.22 (lower high on the hourly chart), $29.11 (April 3 high) Support: $25.89 (Monday's low), $25.56 (ascending 5-day average)

Following its U-turn from the record top, USD/MXN registers 0.15% gains to 24.66 amid the Asian session on Tuesday. The surge in Mexico’s coronavirus

USD/MXN stalls pullback from record top.Mexico registers 296 new coronavirus cases, 125 deaths on Monday.A confluence of 5-day SMA, one-week-old rising trend line limits immediate declines.Buyers will wait for entry for a sustained move beyond March high.Following its U-turn from the record top, USD/MXN registers 0.15% gains to 24.66 amid the Asian session on Tuesday. The surge in Mexico’s coronavirus (COVID-19) statistics seems to be the latest catalyst propelling the pair. Reuters relied on the Mexican Health Ministry updates to convey that Mexico has registered 296 new coronavirus infections, bringing the country’s total to 2,493 cases and 125 deaths. As a result, the pair bounces off 5-day SMA level, needless to mention the short-term rising trend line, which limits the pair’s immediate declines. Even so, buyers will wait for sustained trading beyond the previous month’s high of 25.46 for a clear move above 26.00. On the downside, an area comprising immediate SMA and support line near 24.57/47 will question the sellers during the fresh declines.  In a case where the USD/MXN prices slip below 24.47, a 21-day SMA level of 23.56 becomes the key as it holds the gate for further south-run to March 27 low close to 22.86. USD/MXN forecast chart Trend: Bullish  

Mexico has registered 296 new coronavirus infections, bringing the country's total to 2,493 cases and 125 deaths, the health ministry said in a press

Mexico has registered 296 new coronavirus infections, bringing the country's total to 2,493 cases and 125 deaths, the health ministry said in a press conference on Monday; this is a relatively high death rate.  Just recently and reported in the New York Times that Mexican Deputy Hugo Lopez-Gatell said on Saturday that decades of poor eating habits in the country have created an epidemic of obesity, diabetes and other related health complications that make its people more vulnerable to the novel coronavirus. "These people, unfortunately, had chronic diseases or were older," Lopez-Gatell said during a press conference, adding that the country had one of the world's highest rates of diabetes and obesity. "This is the product of many years, at least four decades, of poor nutrition, a diet that has been created by products of low nutritional quality and very high calories, in particular in processed foods," Lopez-Gatell said. Meanwhile, the peso is holding form in the 24.58s as it starts to show signs of recovery from record lows.   

The American dollar is losing ground in Asia amid the uptick in the US stock futures, helping EUR/USD recover early losses. The pair is currently trad

EUR/USD looks to be creating a double bottom pattern on the hourly chart. A break above 1.0836 is needed to confirm a price breakout. The American dollar is losing ground in Asia amid the uptick in the US stock futures, helping EUR/USD recover early losses.  The pair is currently traded near 1.08, having jumped from 1.0785 to 1.0802 in the 60 minutes to 00:00GMT. The futures tied to the S&P 500 index are up 0.5% at press time and pointing to a continuation of Monday's 7% price rally. The signs of risk reset will likely continue to weigh over the safe-haven US dollar.  Double bottom in Euro The pair has defended the area around 1.0770 two times since Friday. The hourly chart shows a double bottom pattern with the neckline resistance at 1.0836 is likely in the making.  A break above 1.0836 would confirm a double bottom breakout and open the doors to 1.09 (target as per the measured move method).  Alternatively, acceptance under 1.0770 would invalidate prospects of a double bottom breakout and could yield another leg down toward 1.0750.  Hourly chartTrend: Bullish above 1.0836 Technical levels  

Despite bouncing off 132.94 to the intraday high of 133.66, GBP/JPY registers no major gains on the daily basis during Tuesday’s Asian session.

GBP/JPY extends the latest recovery gains.Uncertainty surrounding UK’s political future, due to PM Johnson’s health issues, weigh on the upside prospects.US President Trump showed readiness for another round of direct payments to Americans.Japan’s second-tier economics flashed mixed results, virus updates in focus.Despite bouncing off 132.94 to the intraday high of 133.66, GBP/JPY registers no major gains on the daily basis during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair earlier dropped after concerns over the health of the UK PM grabbed market attention. However, upbeat statements from US President Donald Trump and mixed data from Japan offered immediate direction to the pair. Japan’s Overall Household Spending for February recovered from -3.9% expected and prior readings to -0.3% while Labour Cash Earnings weakened from 2.1% forecast to 1.0%. Further, Japanese Foreign Reserves for March rose from $1,359B to $1,366.2B. While UK PM Boris Johnson is receiving oxygen in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), he deputized the Foreign Minister Dominic Raab to lead the nation through the coronavirus crisis. On the other hand, US President Trump showed readiness to take a step forward and announce another aid payment to every American if needed to combat the virus. The Republican leader earlier cited fears of a virus outbreak in the upcoming one and a half week while also showing resentment from Indian actions asking for help from China. Also adding to the optimism could be comments from Japan's PM Shinzo Abe who provided fresh hints for the much awaited relief package. Market’s risk-tone seems to take clues from US President Trump’s latest comments and hence the US 10-year treasury yields extend the previous run-up to 0.687% by the press time. Also portraying the risk-one sentiment are the US stock futures and Japan’s NIKKEI. Investors may now await further virus updates and the next move of the UK government, under the new leader, for fresh direction. Technical analysis 10-day EMA near 133.00 and the monthly low surrounding 132.50 are likely immediate supports that limit the pair’s near-term declines. On the contrary, buyers will look for a sustained break of the one-week-old falling trend line, currently around 133.60, for further direction.  

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe crossed he wires and said that direct fiscal spending under the government's stimulus package to combat the coronav

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe crossed he wires and said that direct fiscal spending under the government's stimulus package to combat the coronavirus pandemic will total 39 trillion yen ($357 billion), Jiji news agency reported on Tuesday, according to Reuters News. Key notes Abe pledged on Monday to roll out an unprecedented economic stimulus package worth 108 trillion yen - equal to 20% of economic output - as his government vowed to take "all steps" to battle deepening fallout from the coronavirus. The package, to be confirmed by the cabinet on Tuesday, will total 108 trillion yen ($989 billion), far exceeding one compiled in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis totalling 56 trillion yen in size, with fiscal spending of 15 trillion yen. "We decided to carry out an unprecedentedly massive scale of economic package worth 108 trillion yen, or 20% of GDP, following the immense damage to the economy from the novel coronavirus," Abe told reporters after a meeting with senior ruling party lawmakers. Abe stopped short of providing further details, but the amount may include earlier economic measures valued at 26 trillion yen, which were adopted at the end of last year to cope with risks from the Sino-U.S. trade war. Still, the package turned out far bigger than the amount anticipated by market players, giving a sense of security for people facing income declines and staying indoors, some analysts say. This news follows the announcement that a state of emergency as early as Tuesday would be declared. The cases of COVID-19 have been ramping up to alarming levels. the yen has come under pressure are markets considering, again, the Japanese dire economic outlook and wat an outbreak would mean for the nation's fragile economy.   

Japan JP Foreign Reserves climbed from previous $1359B to $1366.2B in March

Gold prices remain on the front foot while taking the bids near $1,668, up 0.70%, amid the Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the bullion refreshe

Gold registers a five-day winning streak.An ascending trend line from mid-March questions further upside.21-day SMA will validate the rising wedge bearish technical formation.Gold prices remain on the front foot while taking the bids near $1,668, up 0.70%, amid the Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the bullion refreshes the four-week high with an intraday peak of $1,674.15 while also marking a fifth consecutive daily gain. While the yellow metal’s sustained trading beyond March 26 top suggests its further upside, an ascending trend line since March 13, 2020, seems to be the immediate resistance to watch. Should the safe-haven manage to cross $1,685, the previous month high surrounding $1,703 will be on the buyers’ target list during the further advances. On the downside, the metal’s declines below March 26 high around $1,645 can drag the quote to a short-term rising support line around $1,624. However, a downside break of $1,624 will confirm the bearish technical pattern that will get validation from the 21-day SMA level of $1,586. Gold daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) below forecasts (2.1%) in February: Actual (1%)

Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-3.9%) in February

Reuters reports that US President Donald Trump said on Monday that a second round of direct payments from the federal government to Americans was unde

Reuters reports that US President Donald Trump said on Monday that a second round of direct payments from the federal government to Americans was under serious consideration to help limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Asked if he would consider a second round of direct payments, Trump told a news conference: "We could very well do a second round of direct (payments)." He then added: "It is absolutely under serious consideration.  

NZD/USD refrains from extending the previous day’s recovery gains while stepping back to 0.5930 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The kiwi pair earlier

NZD/USD fails to extend the latest recovery gains.US President Trump cites pandemic fears, asks help from China.New Zealand’s Q1 NZIER Business Confidence slumps to -70% versus -21% prior.Aussie data, RBA and coronavirus updates will offer fresh impulse.NZD/USD refrains from extending the previous day’s recovery gains while stepping back to 0.5930 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The kiwi pair earlier benefited from the pause in coronavirus (COVID-19) carnage in the global hot-spot. Though, the recent declines in New Zealand data and comments from US President Donald Trump seemed to have checked the market’s risk-on sentiment. New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion suggested a slump to -70% figure versus prior -21% during the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. However, the survey date preceded the announcement by the Government of the Alert Level 4 lockdown across the country and hence offered a little help for any major trade decision. US President Donald Trump, during his Coronavirus Task Force Briefings, cited fears of worsening situations in the US, mainly due to the virus outbreak, while also asked China for help. The US leader also disliked Indian decision on the exports of Hydroxychloroquine and suggested retaliation. With the recent challenges to the risk, US stock futures fail to follow Wall Street gains while stepping back to near 0.30% loss by the press time. The pair’s earlier recovery moves could be attributed to the early positive signs from Italy and Spain, coupled with upbeat comments from the New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Given the release of domestic data, the kiwi traders may now follow Aussie trade numbers and RBA meeting updates for fresh impulse. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to wait for fresh clues before extending its monetary policy combat with the virus, comments from the policy statement will be watched closely. Technical analysis NZD/USD remains capped by 21-day SMA, currently near 0.5945, a break of which could challenge 0.6000 round-figure ahead of targeting March 27 high surrounding 0.6070.  

The price of oil has been under some pressure in recent trade considering the delays to the OPEC meeting which had been scheduled for Monday but put b

WTI is on the back foot following a delay to the highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting. Markets are otherwise enjoying some recovery amid signs of a slow down in COVID-19 contagion. The price of oil has been under some pressure in recent trade considering the delays to the OPEC meeting which had been scheduled for Monday but put back until Thursday. At the time of writing, WTI is trading a $26.69bbls between $26.29bbls and $26.75bbls, below the 3rd April highs of $29.11bbls. COVID-19 Updates: A crucial week ahead for the debacleIf it were not for the delay, we would likely see oil, depending on the outcome of the meeting, marrying up with some of the recoveries we have started to see across the board.  Risk markets were enjoying some recovery, but markets were potentially too optimistic for the group to reach a negotiated agreement. "Prices are still holding relatively firm as optimism is high," analysts at TD Securities noted, "that an eventual deal will be struck, with many referencing the 10m bpd figure. In our view, a double-digit cut is only plausible should the United States participate in the cuts, which at this point, seems to have a high hurdle for success as President Trump's communications suggest the country is not ready to commit to such an agreement." With negotiations ongoing, two-way risks remain particularly high. Nonetheless, the longer it takes to come to an agreement the more inventories swell and the more detrimental the demand shock will prove to be, which suggests even a large cut will not be enough to offset the shock, at least in the near term.   Still time for further disputes and delays However, there has been a loss of 8% amid rising tensions between the world’s biggest oil producers and any further delays to forge a truce and stabilize badly beaten-down energy prices could be very impactful.  Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia and Russia became locked in a dispute, both blaming each other for the collapse in global energy prices, so this could still have some miles to go yet.  WTI levels  

South Korea Current Account Balance above forecasts (1.09B) in February: Actual (6.41B)

Despite trading in a range between 66.35 and 66.55 since Monday’s US session, currently around 66.30, AUD/JPY remains mildly on the back foot, down 0.

AUD/JPY seesaws in a 20-pip range.A daily close beyond 21-day SMA, bullish MACD favor buyers.Sellers will seek entries below Thursday’s low.Despite trading in a range between 66.35 and 66.55 since Monday’s US session, currently around 66.30, AUD/JPY remains mildly on the back foot, down 0.10%, amid the early Tuesday morning in Asia. While the pair’s first daily closing beyond 21-day SMA since early-February, coupled with the bullish MACD, keep buyers hopeful, a downward sloping trend line from March 10 seems to be an immediate challenge. On the break of 66.70 resistance line, 67.00 and March 25 high near 67.70 will be on the bull’s radar. Further, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of February-March declines, near 68.90, could lure the buyers beyond 67.70. Meanwhile, a daily break below the 21-day SMA level of 65.70 might push sellers to await further downside under Thursday’s low of 64.40 to target 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 63.30. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

Having benefited from the recovery in virus data from global hot-spot, while marking a three-day winning streak on Monday, USD/JPY buyers seem to catc

USD/JPY extends the previous recovery gains.US President Trump cited fears of a surge of virus, turns ship in hospital for New York, New Jersey.Japan’s Overall Household Spending can offer immediate direction, pandemic updates will remain as the key driver.Having benefited from the recovery in virus data from global hot-spot, while marking a three-day winning streak on Monday, USD/JPY buyers seem to catch a breath around 109.25 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday. The recent trade sentiment could be taking clues from US President Donald Trump’s comments during Coronavirus (COVID-19) Task Force Briefings as well as updates from the UK. US President Trump suggested that the next week, one and a half could see a surge in the virus while also marking the government’s fight against the pandemic. The Republican leader welcomed the New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s request to turn ships into the hospital while also said to sign an agreement to provide masks from 3M. It should also be noted that the shift in power from the UK’s de facto PM Boris Johnson to Deputy Dominic Raab also weighed on the risk-tone. Earlier, the recovery in the pandemic numbers from Spain and Italy, coupled with upbeat comments from the New York Governor Cuomo helped the market sentiment to kick-start the week on a positive side. The US 10-year treasury yields marked nine basis points (bps) of increase to 0.69% with Wall Street benchmarks up near 7.0% each. Though, the latest readings of the US stock futures suggest mild weakness of around 0.30%. While Japan’s Overall Household Spending for February, expected and prior -3.9%, could act as immediate catalysts, the pair could keep taking clues from the virus data for fresh impulse. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 200-day SMA level, currently at 108.35, portrays the pair’s momentum strength.  

Australia AiG Performance of Services Index fell from previous 47 to 38.7 in March

New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) declined to -70% in 1Q from previous -21%

During his Coronavirus Task Force Briefings for Monday, US President Donald Trump cited fears of a big surge of virus in the next week or week and a h

During his Coronavirus Task Force Briefings for Monday, US President Donald Trump cited fears of a big surge of virus in the next week or week and a half. The Republican leader also said that the US made tremendous progress on therapeutics. Key quotes Next week, week and a half will show big surge of virus. Made tremendous progress on therapeutics. Amicable agreement reached with 3M over masks, delivery of some 165 million masks in coming months. We will allow the US Navy ship in New York to become a hospital for people living with the Coronavirus. We are taking preventive measures because the large numbers of casualities are stabilizing. Businesses applied for more than $40Bln in relief loans, $30Bln in hospital aid going out this week. FX implications Given the traders’ active reaction to any coronavirus news from the US, the market’s risk-tone turned heavy after the news as S&P 500 Futures slips 0.30% by the press time.

The UK’s deputy PM, Dominic Raab, will take charge of the economy, as deputized by the PM Boris Johnson. While taking the charge, the Deputy said, as

The UK’s deputy PM, Dominic Raab, will take charge of the economy, as deputized by the PM Boris Johnson. While taking the charge, the Deputy said, as per The Sun, “The Prime Minister asked me to deputize for him, where necessary, in driving forward the Government's plans to defeat coronavirus.” Key quotes "As you'll know he's been receiving excellent care at St Thomas’s hospital.” "And we'd like to take this opportunity as a government to thank NHS staff up and down the country for all of their dedication, hard work and commitment in treating everyone who's been affected by this awful virus.” "There's an incredibly strong team spirit behind the Prime Minister, and making sure that we get all of the plans the Prime Minister’s instructed us to deliver to get them implemented as soon as possible." FX implications Although this news suggested a minor blow to the Cable, considering the temporary change in the political leader, GBP/USD showed no major reaction while taking rounds to 1.2230 amid the early Tuesday morning in Asia.

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, Bloomberg came out with the news that the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested the next stimulus to be at least $1 t

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, Bloomberg came out with the news that the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested the next stimulus to be at least $1 trillion to replenish funds for programs established in the recently agreed $2.2 trillion virus relief bill. Key quotes Congress‘s next stimulus bill to prop up the U.S. economy during the coronavirus crisis will be at least another $1 trillion, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats on a private conference call. The next stimulus package would be to replenish funds for programs established in Congress’s $2.2 trillion virus relief bill signed into law last month, according to people on the call. Pelosi said there should be additional direct payments to individuals, extended unemployment insurance, more resources for food stamps and more funds for the Payroll Protection Plan that provides loans to small businesses, lawmakers on the call said. FX implications Markets fail to provide any major reactions to the new amid the early-day trading as well as ahead of the Coronavirus Task Force Briefings by the Trump administrations.

AUD/USD stays within the two-hour-old 0.6080-6100 range, currently around 0.6090, while stepping forward for Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the

AUD/USD remains mildly positive inside an immediate trading range.Early signals of recovery in coronavirus from the global hot-spots seem to be the key.Aussie trade numbers, ANZ Job Advertisements can offer intermediate direction ahead of RBA.The RBA is widely expected to keep monetary policy intact, virus data will remain as an important catalyst.AUD/USD stays within the two-hour-old 0.6080-6100 range, currently around 0.6090, while stepping forward for Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair holds onto Monday’s recovery gains, mainly due to slightly positive coronavirus (COVID-19) data from Europe, ahead of the key RBA meeting. Be it Spain’s fourth straight slowdown in the pace of new deaths or lowest daily increase in Italy’s confirmed cases in three weeks, everything has contributed to the recovery in the market’s risk-sentiment on Monday. Comments from New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, stating that deaths there were showing signs of hitting a plateau, also favored the optimism. While portraying the risk, the US 10-year Treasury yields gained nine basis points to 0.68% whereas Wall Street close signaled 7.0% rally by the benchmarks at the end of Monday’s trading session. Considering the data, TD Securities Inflation report for March suggested an increase of 0.2% MoM, better than the previous -0.1%, coupled with a 1.5% YoY rise versus 1.6% prior. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting will be the key catalyst for the Aussie, February monthly trade numbers will also second-tier employment data from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) could offer intermediate directions. Alike all other employment data, Aussie ANZ Job Advertisements could contract 2.9% versus +0.7% prior while Trade Balance earlier flashed 5,210M figures. Further, the RBA is expected to hold the present monetary policy unchanged and hence the underlying tone of policymakers in the statement will be important to watch. Technical analysis Unless successfully crossing monthly trend line resistance, currently at 0.6100, any recovery seems doubtful. On the contrary, fresh selling below the recent low near 0.5980 can’t be ruled out.  

The US benchmarks were supercharged on Monday with the Dow adding around 1600 points and similar percentile gains in the S&P500 as well as the NASDAQ

Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 1,604 points, +7.6%, to close near 22,656.S&P 500 put on around 173 points, +6.9%, to end the session around 2,661. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed as well, adding around 535 points, up 7.3%, closing near 7,908. The US benchmarks were supercharged on Monday with the Dow adding around 1600 points and similar percentile gains in the S&P500 as well as the NASDAQ on hopes that the COVID-19 numbers of new cases are peaking. The weekend updates were showing a slowing in the spread of the virus and the V-shaped recovery that some economists have been forecasting were reverberating in market sentiment at the start of the week.  Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 1,604 points, +7.6%, to close near 22,656, while the S&P 500 put on around 173 points, +6.9%, to end the session around 2,661. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed as well, adding around 535 points, up 7.3%, closing near 7,908. The effect of the lockdown has been supported home delivery companies such as Wayfair Inc. with their stock price taking off by 40% higher on Monday following news the business had more than doubled in late March.  Declining numbers of the death toll in New York City and Europe has the world preying that we have seen the worts of it and hat the bell curve is now on a southerly trajectory. Italy on Saturday reported its lowest daily rise in COVID-19 deaths in nearly two weeks, according to a Reuters report. It also said the number of patients in intensive care fell for the first time. European data was dismal, PM Johnson in intensive care Meanwhile, there were some key data released in Europe with Germany’s construction PMI falling sharply into contractionary territory in March. Analysts at ANZ bank explained that it was falling 13.8 pts to 42 and despite the fact that construction sites have not been ordered to shut down (provided workers maintain physical distancing guidelines). "Meanwhile, German factory orders for February show manufacturing was muddling along before COVID-19 hit, falling 1.4% m/m to be up 1.5% y/y. The March release will be weak. Weak euro data more broadly: Euro area investor confidence fell to its lowest reading on record, down 25.8 pts from March to -42.9. The current situation index fell a whopping 51.7 pts to -66, while expectations lifted marginally, up 4.2 pts from March to -15.8 in April. Weak UK data: UK new car registrations fell 44.4% y/y in March, while the UK’s construction PMI dropped to 39.3 (last: 52.6, mkt: 44)." Speaking of the UK, the PM Boris Johnson was admitted to intensive care in St. Tomas's Hospital and the pound fell sharply as a result. More on that here:Breaking: Boris Johnson has been taken to intensive care – BBCDJIA levels    
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