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ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

จันทร์, กุมภาพันธ์ 17, 2020

New Zealand REINZ House Price Index (MoM): 0.6% (January) vs 0.5%

On a week jam-packed with UK data, GBP/USD is in the hands of the bears again with a persistent bearish retracement of the 4-hour extension from 1.294

It is a toss-up for fiscal stimulus and EU/UK negotiations to kick-off next month for GBP traders. GBP/USD testing critical support area in a rising channel, capped by 61.8% Fibo retracement level. On a week jam-packed with UK data, GBP/USD is in the hands of the bears again with a persistent bearish retracement of the 4-hour extension from 1.2944. GBP is now on the verge of completing a 38.2% Fibo retracement in an extension of a four-hour reverse head and shoulders. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.2999, travelling lower within a range of between 1.3054 and 1.2998.  GBP/USD is facing its first daily loss in six days of correcting higher within a bullish channel in completing a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February downtrend. The fundamental drivers are scarce at the start of the week. However, it is a toss-up now between the resignation of Javid as Chancellor last week which has opened the door for Downing Street to oversee an increase in fiscal spending in the budget which could make further rate cuts less likely vs the rise in EU/UK political tensions that could undermine the pound for the foreseeable future.   Over the weekend, France’s foreign minister Le Drian warned that the UK and the EU will ‘rip each other apart’ in the trade talks which are due to start next month. In recent trade, we heard from the UK's Brexit negotiator, David Frost, who set out Britain’s goals for talks over its future relationship with the European Union in a speech in Brussels as the two sides prepare to thrash out an agreement before the end of the year. Frost said that Britain aims to minimise as much as it can trade friction through customs facilitation, claiming that a deal can be achieved quickly. Frost also said that London was prepared to accept an "Australia-style" free trade agreement with the bloc if its member states continue to have doubts about the terms of a no-quotas, no-tariffs deal – more on that here. Key data week aheadUK employment preview: Three reasons why GBP/USD could bounce even if wage growth slowsMeanwhile, we look to this week's key data releases data of which could be key in assessing the actions of the BoE in the coming months. These will include December labour figures and Consumer Price Index as well as the flash PMIs for the UK which will give us a first good look at how the coronavirus outbreak is affecting business sentiment. "UK sentiment, in particular, may also be affected by antagonistic language around EU-UK trade negotiations, and the government announced that there will be frictions at the border beginning in 2021," analysts at TD Securities argued.  As for, CPI, the analysts at TD Securities expect the data to come in well below the BoE's estimate of 1.8% YoY. "Our divergence is entirely in core, where we look for core CPI to hold steady while the BoE has forecast an extremely sharp rebound to 1.7% YoY. We think that meets one of the BoE's two criteria for easing ("should indicators of domestic prices remain relatively weak"), supporting our call for a May rate cut." In addition, Wednesday brings the release of the minutes of the January 28-29 FOMC meeting and a number of key Fed speakers. The FOMC minutes are expected to reflect a ‘steady as she goes’ Fed policy, while a mix of opinions from the likes of Kashkari, Mester, Kaplan, Brainard and Clarida will be in store.  GBP/USD levels We are seeing the aforementioned Fibonacci levels being both respected and targetted, which analysts at Commerzbank argue that GBP/USD looks supported by the 1.2929/08 band – CommerzbankGBP/USD Forecast: Pressure mounts on Pound ahead of budget´s deadline   
 

After bouncing from fresh 2020 lows, NZD/USD has entered a range above the 0.6400 figure and below the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs), suggesting a b

NZD/USD entered a range after bouncing from 2020 lows.The level to beat for bulls is the 0.6443 resistance.    NZD/USD daily chart   After bouncing from fresh 2020 lows, NZD/USD has entered a range above the 0.6400 figure and below the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs), suggesting a bearish bias. Sellers want to resume the bear trend and break below the 0.6423 level to drive the market south towards 0.6400 and 0.6370, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. However, bulls are trying to create a reversal up and break above 0.6443, 0.6470 and 0.6500 figure.      Resistance: 0.6443, 0.6470, 0.6500Support: 0.6423, 0.6400, 0.6370    Additional key levels  

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 18th: Slow start to the week amid a scarce macroeconomic calendar and a holiday in the US. The coro

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 18th:Slow start to the week amid a scarce macroeconomic calendar and a holiday in the US. The coronavirus outbreak continues to be the main risk factor, although there was no escalation in concerns that could trigger demand for safe-haven assets.The EUR/USD pair held at the lower end of its latest range, pressuring the yearly low at 1.0826. The German Bundesbank said in its monthly report that there are no signs the currency situation is set to change in the first quarter of the year, while coronavirus’ uncertainty adds a new layer of risk.The GBP/USD broke below 1.3000 at the end of the day, although limited volumes resulted in no follow-through. Concerns about the future relationship with the EU weighed as well as uncertainty surrounding the budget, due to be delivered by March 11.Japanese economy contracted by more than anticipated in Q4, JPY under pressure, although coronavirus concerns limited its decline.China added monetary stimulus, helping Asian and European equities to remain afloat. Gains were modest amid persistent coronavirus concerns.Crypto Today: Bitcoin weekly closure is worrying

The UK's Brexit negotiator Frost is crossing the wires and said that Britain aims to minimise as much as it can trade friction through customs facilit

The UK's Brexit negotiator Frost is crossing the wires and said that Britain aims to minimise as much as it can trade friction through customs facilitation, claiming that a deal can be achieved quickly. Frost said that London was prepared to accept an "Australia-style" free trade agreement with the bloc if its member states continue to have doubts about the terms of a no-quotas, no-tariffs deal. Key notes We want Canada-type free trade agreement with EU. Ready to trade on Australia terms if EU doubts persist on FTA. Says Britain will not be low-standard economy. Says perfectly possible to have higher standards without our laws and regulations saying the exact say thing. Says we're going to have huge advantage over EU in ability to set rules and regulations quickly. says even if there is the short-term cost to Brexit, it will be overtaken rapidly by mid-term gains. Says we are not frightened by suggestions there will be trade frictions and barriers. Says we are not ready to compromise on fundamental parts of our negotiating position. Frost says we will treat n.ireland as any other part of the UK.   "The EU does not have a free trade agreement with Australia, and so such an arrangement would effectively be a trade relationship governed by World Trade Organization rules," Reuters News was explaining: David Frost told a university lecture in Brussels that Britain, which left the EU at the end of January, wanted a trade agreement similar to that which Canada has with the bloc when a transition period ends on Dec. 31, 2020. EU negotiators have said that for a Canada-style deal, Britain would have to adopt a level playing field with the bloc on state aid, environment, employment and other regulations to guard against unfair competition with the European single market. Frost said that whatever trade friction Britain faces when the transition period ends, his country would aim to minimise it as much as possible through customs facilitation. FX implications More to come...  

USD/JPY idles at the top of the day's range in holiday thin markets, oscillating around 109.93 having travelled from a low of 109.71 to a high of 109.

Coronavirus remains the major theme in markets, yet the optimists are supporting risk-on flows. USD/JPY bulls holding the fort on key support structure, looking to 111 handle and a gap to close.USD/JPY idles at the top of the day's range in holiday thin markets, oscillating around 109.93 having travelled from a low of 109.71 to a high of 109.96. Market's are taking the coronavirus threats in their stride and US stocks are a favourite pick by investors which is keeping the yen weak and supporting the greenback. We are seeing a far more sanguine approach to the coronavirus than first anticipated and looking to the latest FX positioning data, the selling interest in the yen keeps prevailing as net positioning was at -14% of open interest as of 11 February. Moreover, the mounting signs of US economic resilience, despite a set back in Friday's data, keep on feeding the USD bullish sentiment leading to a build-up of the support structure in USD/JPY on a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement area (109.70) of the Feb. range – 108.30-110.13. The effort to contain the new coronavirus to weigh on global growth  The extensive efforts to contain the new coronavirus have will have caused economic growth in China to slow abruptly and it will be having repercussions around the world. However, it is too early to say what the extent of the damage will be on the Chinese economy let alone the global economy. For now, at least, there is optimistic positioning in the markets, banking on Chinese stimulus although there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen over the coming weeks on the course taken by an infectious disease that is still poorly understood.  For that matter, the yen is unlikely to materially shift to the downside until a clearer and positive assumption relating to the contagion risks to the wider global economy can be made. Yesterday, there was news that Moody's had revised global growth forecasts down by two-tenths of a percentage point and revised downward GDP growth forecasts for China to 5.2% in 2020. China's Xi Jinping recently said that China would still meet its economic targets this year despite the outbreak – "the most important of these is the Party’s longstanding target to double 2010 GDP by 2020. To do that, the government will need to publish annual growth this year of at least 5.7%," Niel Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics argued.  In the latest update from the World Health Organization, (WHO), it states that the latest data provided by China appear to show a decline in the number of new coronavirus infections,  but express that it's too early to tell if this trend will continue."This trend must be interpreted very cautiously, trends can change as new populations are affected," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters on today.  Meanwhile, when US stock markets return this week, the yen will likely be subject to the direction for which investors will be most balanced and if we continue to see all-time record highs, likely relating to President Donald Trump's presumed election victory this year, then then the yen can stay offered for the time being.  USD/JPY levels There is a short-term bullish technical outlook for USD/JPY as the pair balances between a 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci area, albeit within a rising bearish wedge formation where trendline resistance around 110.20/40 could prove to be a near-term obstacle en route to 111 the figure, (a prior gap on the charts). A deeper retracement to 109 the figure should the bulls fail to at 109.40 opens the 61.8% potential support before a full-blown breakout below the rising wedge's support with 108.05 as a 38.2% Fibo of the wedges range to date as a key initial downside target ahead of a 50% mean reversion located at 107.36.   

Britan expects an open and fair competition based on a free trade agreement with the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's EU advisor, David

Britan expects an open and fair competition based on a free trade agreement with the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's EU advisor, David Frost, will reportedly say during a lecture at a Brussels university on Monday, per Reuters. Key quotes "Central for UK to be able to set own laws, to think that we might accept EU supervision on level playing field is wrong." "UK would not extend the transition period beyond end-2020." "Tying UK to EU rules would undermine public backing for UK government at home." "EU must endorse relationship of equals if it wants sustainable relationship with UK."

The barrel of West Texas Intermediate added 3.4% last week and snapped a five-week losing streak as easing worries over the coronavirus outbreak weigh

China plans to cut taxes to stimulate the economy.Markets wait for Russia's decision on deeper oil output cuts.The barrel of West Texas Intermediate added 3.4% last week and snapped a five-week losing streak as easing worries over the coronavirus outbreak weighing on the energy demand provided a boost. With markets staying relatively calm on Monday, the WTI edged higher and was last seen trading at $52.30, adding 0.25% on the day. China's Premier Li Keqiang told the state television that they see a positive trend in the prevention of coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, China's Finance Minister Liu Kun announced that they were planning to introduce tax cuts to help businesses battle against the negative impact of the outbreak on the economic activity. Eyes on Russia Although Russia hasn't yet announced a decision on the recommended deeper production cuts. Russia's Energy Ministry in a statement noted that Energy Minister Alexander Novak discussed cooperation on OPEC+ output cuts by phone with Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh earlier on Monday. With the US financial markets being closed on Monday in observance of Presidents' Day holiday, the weekly API and the EIA crude oil stock reports will be published a day later, on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Technical levels to watch for  

After the October and December bull-market, GBP/USD is trading in a rectangle consolidation above the 100/200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The pound is e

GBP/USD is losing steam as the market is challenging the 1.3000 figure.Bears are eyeing the 1.2976 and 1.2930 levels on the way down.   GBP/USD daily chart    After the October and December bull-market, GBP/USD is trading in a rectangle consolidation above the 100/200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The pound is easing while below the 1.3100 figure and the 50 SMA.    GBP/USD four-hour chart   The pound is challenging the 1.3000 support while trading below its 100/200 SMAs on the four-hour chart. A break below the above-mentioned level could lead to further downside towards the 1.2976 and 1.2930 support levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. On the flip side, bullish attempts could find resistance near the 1.3030, 1.3075 and 1.3160 levels.  Resistance: 1.3030, 1.3075, 1.3160Support: 1.3000, 1.2976, 1.2930      Additional key levels  

"The share of exports to China in Japan’s total good exports is close to 20%, and the share of exports to China in Japan’s GDP is around 3%," Billi Di

"The share of exports to China in Japan’s total good exports is close to 20%, and the share of exports to China in Japan’s GDP is around 3%," Billi Diviney and Aline Schuiling, senior economists at ABN AMRO. Key quotes "For the eurozone these shares are 8% and 1.5% respectively. Within the eurozone, Germany would (again) be the country that is hit hardest by the slowdown in industry and exports, with the share of exports to China in Germany’s GDP at 3%." "For comparison, the US’s trade exposure to China is much smaller, with the share of exports to China in GDP at just 0.5%. On top of this, tourism from China has also become a rising source of income for Japan. It is now 1% of GDP – up sharply from just 0.3% in 2012." "This is important, because as the SARS episode taught us, the hit to tourism is one of the main sources of economic spillovers from such an outbreak. For the eurozone, the share of tourism in GDP is more limited, at just 0.1%. Italy and France are the two eurozone countries that would suffer the most, but related to their GDP the impact is still rather small."

XAU/USD is trading in an uptrend above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs). Gold is evolving in a bull channel as bulls remain in control.

XAU/USD is consolidating gains on the first day of the week. Buyers' targets can be located near the 1590.05 and 1595.00 price levels.  Gold daily chart   XAU/USD is trading in an uptrend above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs). Gold is evolving in a bull channel as bulls remain in control.   Gold four-hour chart   XAU/USD is trading above the 1576.75 support and the main SMAs on the four-hour chart suggesting a bullish momentum in the medium term. As buyers are in control the market can try to climb to the 1590.05 and 1595.00 price levels. On the flip side, pullbacks down may find support near the 1576.88, 1571.94 and 1565.36 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.       Resistance: 1586.75, 1590.05, 1595.00Support: 1576.88, 1571.94, 1565.36    Additional key levels  

Consolidating below the hourly trend-line resistance, AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6719 between a range of 0.6712 and 0.6733 in holiday thin mark

Coronavirus risks brushed aside as market attention stays with the RBA's higher bar for cuts.AUD supported on a bullish plateau in the commodity complex. Consolidating below the hourly trend-line resistance, AUD/USD  is currently trading at 0.6719 between a range of 0.6712 and 0.6733 in holiday thin markets and subdued price action. The markets are full of idiosyncrasy, relating to the coronavirus and complacency in the stock markets, distorting the regular flow of safe-haven money and speculative positioning in FX. Money flows supporting both the Aussie and US dollar The US dollar is one of the more unsurprising strengths, with USD net longs pushing higher for a third consecutive week due to its practical store of value for many investors. Despite the few disappointments in Friday's data, US growth data are still better than that of many other G10 countries.  The Australian dollar, however, remains constructive for a possible inverted head and shoulders on the daily time frame as long positions continue to grow as a consequence to the lastest hints of optimism at the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUD net positions advanced by 5.5% of open interest, reducing the net-short exposure to -18%.  Sentiment appears to be more positive in the bulk commodity sector, with iron ore recording its largest weekly gain since September –  a proxy for AUD. The markets assume the worst of the coronavirus impact on the global economy is behind them which is reflected through the CRB Index's steady gains, along with a bullish plateau in copper and oil prices with the energy sector leading the way. WHO's Tedros: Too early to see if trend of fewer new cases of coronavirus will continueHowever, the momentum in the buying of AUD in spot FX has slowed, and given how exposed the Australian economy is to Chinese demand and not forgetting the bushfire emergency, fundamentally the case can still be argued for a downside extension.  It is still too early to completely move on from the threats of the virus and its economic impact –  tt’s difficult to judge how the economic effects of it will play out over the next ten days, let alone for the rest of the year and into 2021. The RBA's minutes this week could give clues as to what would force the RBA to reconsider its neutral stance. Aussie Unemployment Rate in focus Meanwhile, a period of consolidation could be expected – while the virus headlines and global factors remain key, the risks seem balanced in the near-term ahead of the Australian employment data which will also be scrutinised to see if it validates the more upbeat tone from the RBA. Governor Philip Lowe recently highlighted the risks to cutting do not outweigh the benefits and that the unemployment rate would need to deteriorate 'materially' for the Bank to consider cutting. "Assuming the unemployment rate rises 0.1% per month, the earliest the RBA would cut is in June assuming a 5.5% print in May is considered a material deterioration," analysts at TD Securities explained.  "We have headline at +12k, u/e rate at 5.2% and part rate unchanged at 66%. There is likely to be greater uncertainty for the Jan print. If the print is soft, finger will to bushfires. This should show up in total hours worked." AUD/USD levelsChart Of The Week: AUD/USD bulls advancing in bullish descending triangle within weekly support
 

The latest data provided by China appear to show a decline in the number of new coronavirus infections but it's too early to tell if this trend will c

The latest data provided by China appear to show a decline in the number of new coronavirus infections but it's too early to tell if this trend will continue, World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters on Monday. "This trend must be interpreted very cautiously, trends can change as new populations are affected," Tedros added and explained that the new Chinese data gives them a better understanding of the age range of people affected, the severity of the disease and the mortality rate.

After posting its lowest weekly close since April of 2017 at 1.0832 last Friday, the EUR/USD is having a difficult time staging a meaningful recovery

Bundesbank sees German economic growth remaining weak in Q1.US Dollar Index looks to close flat above 99.ZEW Survey's Economic Sentiment for eurozone is expected to improve in February.After posting its lowest weekly close since April of 2017 at 1.0832 last Friday, the EUR/USD is having a difficult time staging a meaningful recovery on Monday as the thin trading conditions force the pair to remain stuck in a tight 20-pip range. As of writing, the pair was up 0.09% on a daily basis at 1.0840. Earlier in the day, Germany's central bank, Bundesbank, in its monthly report said the economic growth in Germany was expected to remain weak in the first quarter of 2020 amid weak exports and the coronavirus outbreak in China. Nevertheless, these remarks failed to trigger a market reaction. Focus shifts to ZEW Survey On Tuesday, the ZEW Survey for Germany and the eurozone will be looked upon for fresh catalysts. Analysts see the Economic Sentiment for the eurozone to improve to 30 in February from 25.6 in January but expect the same reading in Germany to drop to 20.4 from 26.7. An upbeat reading from Germany could help the shared currency start recovering its losses against the buck. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index is staying flat on the day near 99.10 in the absence of significant macroeconomic drivers. The US financial markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day and the index is likely to end the day unchanged or little changed. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be the only significant data featured in the US economic docket on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch for  

EUR/JPY is consolidating near four-months lows while trading below its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs).

EUR/JPY is starting the new week by consolidating the recent losses.The level to beat for sellers is the 118.73 support.  EUR/JPY daily chart   EUR/JPY is consolidating near four-months lows while trading below its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs).   EUR/JPY four-hour chart   The spot remains under selling pressure below its main SMAs confirming the bearish bias in the medium term. Sellers are looking to extend losses towards the 118.73 level. A breakdown below the above-mentioned level could lead to a drop towards the 118.49 and 117.87 levels. However, the spot can also be vulnerable to a correction up where it could find resistance near the 119.23, 119.48 and 119.73 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.      Resistance: 119.23, 119.48, 119.73Support: 118.73, 118.49, 117.87   Additional key levels  

The US dollar index (DXY) is printing fresh 2020 high while trading well above the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs).

DXY is printing fresh 2020 highs at the start of the week. The level to beat for buyers is the 99.20 resistance.  DXY daily chart   The US dollar index (DXY) is printing fresh 2020 high while trading well above the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs).    DXY four-hour chart   DXY is pressuring the 99.20 resistance while trading well above the main SMAs. The bulls are in control as they are eying the 99.40 and 99.60 resistances. Support is seen at the 99.00 figure and 98.50 level.      Additional key levels  

The Russian economy is expected to expand by 2-2.5% in the first quarter of 2020, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said on Monday, per Reute

The Russian economy is expected to expand by 2-2.5% in the first quarter of 2020, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said on Monday, per Reuters. The bank further added that it expects smaller annual investments by foreigners into Treasury bonds in 2020-2022 and noted that spending on national investment and infrastructure projects could create additional inflationary pressure in 2020. USD/RUB reaction The USD/RUB pair ignored these comments and was last seen trading at 64.4728, down 0.13% on a daily basis.

The GBP/USD pair closed the previous week 150 pips higher as the British pound gathered strength after Prime Minister Boris Johnson appointed Rishi Su

US Dollar Index continues to float above 99.PM Johnson's spokesman says UK is not seeking "anything special" in trade deal with EU.Unemployment Rate in UK is expected to stay unchanged at 3.8%.The GBP/USD pair closed the previous week 150 pips higher as the British pound gathered strength after Prime Minister Boris Johnson appointed Rishi Sunak, who is expected to ramp up fiscal spending, as the new  Chancellor of the Exchequer. However, the pair started the new week on the back foot and fell to a daily low of 1.3003 before going into a consolidation phase. As of writing, the pair was down 0.25% on the day at 1.3010. Earlier in the day, PM Johnson's spokesman said that they were not seeking "anything special" from the EU in trade negotiations and this stance brought in modest selling pressure on the British pound. "We are ready to negotiate now, we want the relationship to be based on friendly cooperation," the spokesman added. Focus shifts to UK employment data On the other hand, the greenback preserves its strength at the start of the week and makes it difficult for the pair to stage a rebound. Although US financial markets are closed in observance of the Presidents' Day, the US Dollar Index, which added 0.5% last week, is staying at its highest level since early October at 99.17. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate data. Analysts' see the Claimant Count Change to come in at +22.6K in January and expect the ILO Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 3.8%. Technical levels to watch for  

The coronavirus disease is set to peak in China only in April, according to Zhong Nanshan, quoted by the Chinese outlet Global Times. Previous estimat

The coronavirus disease is set to peak in China only in April, according to Zhong Nanshan, quoted by the Chinese outlet Global Times. Previous estimates stood in February and the decelerating number of new cases also suggested a quicker timetable to contain the respiratory illness. The number of infections has surpassed 70,000 with the death toll topping 1,700 in China. Japan has reported over 500 cases, mostly due to the spreading of Covid-19 – as the World Health Organization named it – on the Princess Diamond cruise ship.  The news is adverse to global stocks. US markets are closed today for Presidents' Day. Prices of safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and gold prices may benefit from growing concerns. XAU/USD is trading at $1,581 at the time of writing. 

USD/CHF is easing after hitting new 2020 highs this Monday. The spot is trading below the 100/200-day simple moving averages suggesting an overall bearish mom

USD/CHF starts the week by printing fresh 2020 highs. The rising wedge formation can limit bullish advances.   USD/CHF daily chart   USD/CHF is easing after hitting new 2020 highs this Monday. The spot is trading below the 100/200-day simple moving averages suggesting an overall bearish momentum.   USD/CHF four-hour chart   The market broke above the 0.9800 figure while trading above the main SMAs. If buyers keep the market above the 0.9800 figure it might be considered as a bullish sign which can yield further gains above the 0.9830 and 0.9850 levels. On the flip side, a daily close below the 0.9800 figure could see a weakening of the market towards the 0.9770 level.     Resistance: 0.9830, 0.9850, 0.9870Support: 0.9800, 0.9770, 0.9730  Additional key levels  

After climbing as high as the 1.0850 region during early trade, EUR/USD met some selling pressure and it has now receded to the 1.0840/35 band, always

EUR/USD off highs, stays close to the 1.0840 region.Inactivity in the US markets bolsters the current consolidation.German, EMU ZEW Survey next of relevance on Tuesday.After climbing as high as the 1.0850 region during early trade, EUR/USD met some selling pressure and it has now receded to the 1.0840/35 band, always amidst the prevailing consolidative mood in the global markets. EUR/USD looks to risk trends After three consecutive daily pullbacks – including fresh YTD lows in the 1.0830/25 band - the pair seems to have regained some buying interest against the backdrop of the generalized consolidative mood among investors, mainly due to the inactivity in the US markets due to the Washington’s Birthday holiday. In the meantime, concerns around the COVID-19 look somewhat contained and keep propping up the upbeat sentiment surrounding the riskier assets on Monday. Later in the week, the single currency should be under scrutiny as the German/EMU ZEW survey is due on Tuesday, seconded by the ECB Accounts on Thursday and key flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs in the core Euroland. What to look for around EUR The pair has so far managed to bounce off YTD lows around 1.0830 on Friday, although the bearish mood surrounding the European currency remains far from abated. In the meantime, USD-dynamics are expected to dictate the pair’s price action for the time being along with the broad risk trends, where the COVID-19 is still in the centre of the debate. On another front, the ECB is expected to finish its “strategic review” (announced at its January meeting) by year-end, leaving speculations of any change in the monetary policy before that time pretty flat. Further out, latest results from the German and EMU dockets continue to support the view that any attempt of recovery in the region remains elusive for the time being and is expected to keep weighing on the currency. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.08% at 1.0838 and faces the initial hurdle at 1.0957 (weekly high Feb.10) seconded by 1.0988 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1069 (55-day SMA). On the downside, a breach of 1.0827 (weekly/2020 low Feb.14) would target 1.0814 (78.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017).

Prices of the West Texas Intermediate are trading within a tight range at the beginning of the week, with the upside capped just above the $52.00 mark

Prices of the WTI alternate gains with losses around $52.00/bbl.Easing coronavirus concerns helped crude oil prices last week.Attention shifts to the weekly reports by the API and the EIA.Prices of the West Texas Intermediate are trading within a tight range at the beginning of the week, with the upside capped just above the $52.00 mark per barrel. This area of resistance is coincident with the 21-day SMA. WTI looks to data, China Prices of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil appears to have met a strong resistance in the area above the $52.00 mark so far despite concerns over the Chinese COVID-19 continue to diminish and bolster the risk complex. In addition, traders’ sentiment remains sour following the persistent build in US crude oil supplies, as per latest weekly reports by the API and the EIA. Also weighing on prices on Monday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised lower its forecasts for the demand of crude oil this year, adding that consumption will decrease by more than 400K bpd during the first quarter. In the meantime, there is still no news regarding a probable extension of the OPEC+ output cut agreement and/or the implementation of deeper cuts, while Russia and the rest of the cartel are still debating the date of the next meeting. On another front, speculators trimmed their net long positions in crude oil to the lowest level since late October during the week ended on February 11th, according to the latest CFTC report. Later in the week, the API will publish its weekly report on US crude oil inventories on Wednesday (due to Monday’s holiday) and the EIA is expected to release its report on Thursday. WTI significant levels At the moment the barrel of WTI is retreating 0.29% at $52.05 and a breach of $49.31 (2020 low Feb.5) would aim for $42.20 (2018 low Dec.24) and finally $41.83 (2017 low Jun.21). On the other hand, the next hurdle aligns at $52.38 (monthly high Feb.17) seconded by $54.35 (weekly high Jan.29) and then $56.52 (200-day SMA).

The USD/CAD pair edged lower for the second consecutive session on Monday – also marking its fifth day of a negative move in the previous six – and dr

USD/CAD continues losing ground for the second consecutive session on Monday.Bearish traders now await a sustained weakness below the very important 200-DMA.The USD/CAD pair edged lower for the second consecutive session on Monday – also marking its fifth day of a negative move in the previous six – and dropped to fresh monthly lows in the last hour. The downward momentum dragged the pair below the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the 1.2952-1.3330 positive move, albeit the pair has still managed to hold just above the very important 200-day SMA. USD/CAD daily chart The mentioned support also coincides with the lower end of a short-term descending trend-channel formation on the 1-hourly chart and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. USD/CAD 1-hourly chart A convincing break through the said confluence support, currently near the 1.3220 region, will suggest that the pair might have topped out in the near-term and support prospects for further weakness. The pair might then turn vulnerable and seems more likely to accelerate the slide further towards 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.3190 region, before eventually falling to the 1.3140 level (50% Fibo. level). On the flip side, any attempted bounce might continue to confront some fresh supply near the 1.3265-70 region, above which the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.3300 round-figure mark. Technical levels to watch  

USD/JPY is trading off February highs below the 110.00 figure while trading above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) on the daily time frame.

USD/JPY is starting the week trading sideways below the 110.04 resistance.The rising wedge formation can limit bullish advances.   USD/JPY daily chart   USD/JPY is trading off February highs below the 110.00 figure while trading above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) on the daily time frame.   USD/JPY four-hour chart   USD/JPY broke below a rising wedge formation while above the main SMAs. The spot is trading sideways below the 110.04 resistance as bears want to break below the 109.81 support and drive the market towards the 109.58 and 109.30 levels. On the flip side, a daily close above the 110.04 resistance can invalidate the bearish scenario, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.      Resistance: 110.04, 110.30, 110.65Support: 109.81, 109.58, 109.30    Additional key levels  

A holiday in the US and a scarce macroeconomic calendar in Europe keeping majors range-bound, Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet informs. The analyst sees

A holiday in the US and a scarce macroeconomic calendar in Europe keeping majors range-bound, Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet informs. The analyst sees the pair extending its slump on a break below 1.0810, the immediate support. Key quotes “The EUR/USD pair is trading near it’s Friday multi-year low of 1.0826, showing little aims to move one way or the other, as the daily high was set at 1.0850. A scarce European macroeconomic calendar and US markets on holiday are behind the absence of trading interests.”   “EUR/USD is consolidating mid-way its daily range, retaining its bearish stance in the short-term. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA maintains a sharp bearish slope above the current price and below the larger ones, which also head firmly lower.” “Technical indicators have corrected extreme oversold conditions before resuming their declines within negative levels. Further declines are to be expected, with the market now eyeing a test of 1.0770 the next relevant support level.”  

Beijing is urged to delay the additional purchases of US products as part of the phase one of the trade deal due to the impact of the coronavirus outb

Beijing is urged to delay the additional purchases of US products as part of the phase one of the trade deal due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy, South China Morning Post reported on Monday. “If possible, China should bring forward the request to postpone the implementation of purchase plan in an appropriate manner,” Xu Qiyuan said, a researcher at the China Finance 40 Forum, a group of state economists. "Chinese demand for American machinery, electrical equipment and energy needs to be delayed as domestic production has not yet been fully resumed.” Market reaction Markets largely ignored this headline and the USD/JPY pair continues to trade in the positive territory below the 110 mark, suggesting the risk sentiment stays positive on Monday.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will ease in April in the opinion of economists at Standard Chartered Bank who have also lowered their 2020

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will ease in April in the opinion of economists at Standard Chartered Bank who have also lowered their 2020 growth forecast for the country. USD/SGD is trading at 1.388. Key quotes “We downgrade our 2020 growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.4%. The government has also lowered its 2020 growth forecast to a range of -0.5 to +1.5%, from +0.5-2.5%. Our base-case assumption is that the negative growth impact of the virus will be felt most acutely in Q1, and that it will be mostly contained by end-March, both in terms of infection numbers and fears over the severity of the outbreak.  “We are now calling for the MAS to ease again in April, versus our previous on-hold call. We think that MAS may shift the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER) policy band to flat from +0.5% per annum currently.”  

EUR/USD is trading in a weak downtrend below the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) as the spot remains under pressure near 34-month lows. The quote is

EUR/USD is consolidating sideways near 34-month lows as the new week is kicking off.The level to beat for bears is the 1.0826 support.    EUR/USD daily chart    EUR/USD is trading in a weak downtrend below the main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) as the spot remains under pressure near 34-month lows. The quote is trading just below the 2019 lows.    EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD broke below the downward channel while trading below its main SMAs on the four-hour chart. The spot is consolidating sideways while remaining under bearish pressure near 34-month lows. Sellers want a breakdown below the 1.0826 support level to drag the price down to the 1.0800 figure and 1.0756 price levels. Resistances are seen near the 1.0882, 1.0930 and 1.0984 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.     Resistance: 1.0882, 1.0930, 1.0984Support: 1.0826, 1.0800, 1.0756  Additional key levels  

The troy ounce of the precious metal rose nearly $15 last week as investors continued to react to headlines surrounding the coronavirus outbreak. With

European stocks register modest gains at the start of the week.US stock and bond markets closed on Monday in observance of Presidents' Day.China is planning to cut taxes to revive economy.The troy ounce of the precious metal rose nearly $15 last week as investors continued to react to headlines surrounding the coronavirus outbreak. With the new week kicking off in a calm manner, the XAU/USD pair is consolidating last week's gains. The pair, which dropped a session low of $1,578.90, was trading at $1,581.40, down 0.2% on the day. China voices commitment to battle coronavirus In an editorial piece written for China's Communist Party's magazine, China's Finance Minister Liu Kun said that they are planning to cut taxes with an aim to provide companies more funds to eliminate the negative impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the economic activity. In the meantime, China's Premier Li Keqiang told the Chinese state media that the epidemic control has shown an "active and improving" trend. Reflecting the improving risk sentiment, major European equity indexes are posting small gains on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair is unlikely to make a sharp move in either direction in the second half of the day as the trading conditions are expected to remain in thin amid the Presidents' Day holiday in the US. Before the FOMC publishes the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, the risk perception is likely to continue to impact the pair's movements. Technical levels to watch for  

The GBP/JPY cross finally broke down of its early consolidative trading range and dropped to sub-143.00 levels or fresh session lows in the last hour.

GBP/JPY failed to capitalize on last week’s goodish positive move to three-week tops.Comments by the UK PM spokesman resurfaced concerns over a no-deal Brexit.The GBP/JPY cross finally broke down of its early consolidative trading range and dropped to sub-143.00 levels or fresh session lows in the last hour. The cross failed to capitalize on last week's strong positive move of around 225 pips and witnessed a modest pullback on the first day of a new trading week. As investors looked past the latest optimism over Rishi Sunak's appointment as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, not so optimistic comments by the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman prompted some long-unwinding trade on Monday. GBP weighed down by no-deal Brexit concerns Johnson's spokesman said that Britain does not need any special arrangements in its future relationship with the European Union and added that it wants a trade agreement similar to other deals the EU has struck. The comments resurfaced fears of hard-Brexit and exerted some pressure on the British pound. The downside, however, remained cushioned amid an offered tone surrounding the safe-haven Japanese yen. The latest monetary stimulus measures announced by the People’s Bank of China helped lift the global risk sentiment and eventually undermined demand for perceived safe-haven currencies. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent corrective bounce might have already run out of the steam and positioning for any further near-term depreciating move amid absent relevant market moving economic releases. Moving ahead, this week's other important UK macro data – the monthly employment details and the latest consumer inflation figures on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively – will influence the GBP price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities: $-9.57B (December) vs previous $-1.75B

Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities increased to $13.8B in December from previous $5.55B

USD/INR stays trapped in a tight range as the new week starts. The level to beat for sellers is the 71.20 support. USD/INR weekly chart After the 201

USD/INR stays trapped in a tight range as the new week starts. The level to beat for sellers is the 71.20 support.    USD/INR weekly chart   After the 2018 bull-market, USD/INR has been consolidating in a rectangle formation. The quote is trading above its main weekly simple moving averages (SMAs), suggesting a bullish momentum in the long term.     USD/INR daily chart   The spot broke below a bear flag pattern and challenged the 71.20 support level to retest the 71.60 resistance. However, USD/INR has entered a tight sideways market while remaining vulnerable below the 71.60/72.00 resistance zone. However, a daily close above the 72.00 figure would likely invalidate the bearish scenario and generates further upside towards the 72.40 level.      Additional key levels  

Russia Industrial Output came in at 1.1%, below expectations (1.7%) in January

The GBP/USD pair finally broke down of its early consolidative trading range and has now dropped back closer to the key 1.30 psychological mark. Susta

GBP/USD meets with some fresh supply during the mid-European session.The technical set-up again seems to have shifted in favour of bearish trades.The GBP/USD pair finally broke down of its early consolidative trading range and has now dropped back closer to the key 1.30 psychological mark. Sustained weakness below 50-hour SMA was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and behind the pair's latest leg of a slide over the past hour or so. The pair's inability to capitalize on last week's strong positive move of around 200 pips now points to possible bullish exhaustion. This coupled with a failure to find acceptance above 50% Fibonacci level of the 1.3206-1.2872 downfall further suggests the emergence of some fresh selling pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bearish bias and have again started gaining negative traction on the 1-hourly chart have again started gaining negative traction. The set-up supports prospects for a further intraday weakness, which will be reaffirmed below the 1.30 level. Below the mentioned handle, the pair might accelerate the slide further the 1.2955-50 intermediate support en-route 100-day SMA, currently near the 1.2920-15 region. The slide could further get extended towards the 1.2900 mark ahead of the recent swing lows, around the 1.2870 region. On the flip side, any attempted positive move might continue to confront some fresh supply near the 1.3050-70 region. A convincing break through should negate the negative outlook and set the stage for a move beyond the 1.3100 mark towards testing the next major supply zone, around the 1.3140-50 region. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart  

The economic growth in Germany is expected to remain weak in the first quarter of 2020 amid the coronavirus outbreak and sluggish exports, Germany's B

The economic growth in Germany is expected to remain weak in the first quarter of 2020 amid the coronavirus outbreak and sluggish exports, Germany's Bundesbank said in its monthly report on Monday, as reported by Reuters. "For the first quarter of 2020, there are no signs of a fundamental change in Germany's economy," the publication read. "With the appearance of the coronavirus in China at the beginning of 2020, a new layer of risk was added." EUR/USD stays in daily range The EUR/USD pair largely ignored these remarks and continues to trade in a very tight range below the 1.0850 mark on Monday.

According to a recently conducted Reuters poll of 15 institutions, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to lower its policy r

According to a recently conducted Reuters poll of 15 institutions, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to lower its policy rate, one-week repo auction rate, by 50 basis points to 10.75% later this week. "A rate hike was not among the forecasts, which ranged from no change to a 75-point cut in benchmark rate," Reuters further noted. USD/TRY reaction The USD/TRY pair, which closed the last five weeks with gains and touched its highest level since May at 6.0683 on Friday, largely ignored this headline and was last seen trading at 6.0470, where it was virtually unchanged on a daily basis. 

The USD/CAD pair snapped its five-week winning streak and closed the previous week with a 50-pip loss as the recovering crude oil prices helped the co

WTI consolidates last week's gains, trades around $52.US Dollar Index moves sideways above 99 in quiet day.Coming up on Tuesday: Manufacturing Sales data from Canada. The USD/CAD pair snapped its five-week winning streak and closed the previous week with a 50-pip loss as the recovering crude oil prices helped the commodity-related gather strength. With the trading action turning relatively subdued on Monday, the pair continued to edge lower and touched its worst level since the last day of January at 1.3225. As of writing, the pair was down 0.2% on the day at 1.3228. Easing worries over the coronavirus outbreak weighing heavily on the global energy demand allowed the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to gain nearly 3.5% last week. In the absence of significant market drivers, the WTI is trading in a tight range near the $52 mark. What's coming up? Both the US and Canada financial markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents' Day and Family Day, respectively. The next potential catalyst for the pair will be the monthly Manufacturing Sales data from Canada on Tuesday. Later in the week, on Wednesday, the FOMC will publish the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. Until those events, crude oil prices are likely to continue to impact the pair's movements. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index is moving sideways above the 99 mark on Monday, reflecting the thin trading conditions. Technical levels to watch for  

The AUD/USD pair slipped back closer to the lower end of its daily trading range, albeit has still managed to hold its neck above the 0.6700 round-fig

AUD/USD Fails to capitalize on the early uptick and remained capped below mid-0.6700s.Bulls seemed rather unimpressed by the prevailing risk-on mood, subdued USD demand.The focus now shifts to the latest RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, due on Tuesday.The AUD/USD pair slipped back closer to the lower end of its daily trading range, albeit has still managed to hold its neck above the 0.6700 round-figure mark. The China-proxy aussie failed to capitalize on its early attempted positive move against its American counterpart and remained capped below last week's swing high level of 0.6750. Traders preferred to stay on the sidelines Investors looked past the latest monetary stimulus by the People’s Bank of China, which added to its extensive measures and lowered the medium-term financing rate to a new record low. The pair also failed to benefit from improving global risk sentiment, which tends to drive flows towards perceived riskier currencies like the Australian dollar, and a subdued US dollar demand. Market participants seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets, rather preferred to wait on the sidelines amid relatively thin liquidity conditions on the back of a bank holiday in the US. In absence of any fresh fundamental catalyst, the pair seems more likely to extend its consolidative price action ahead of the release of the latest RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch  

The renewed offered bias around the quid is helping EUR/GBP to extend the rebound to levels beyond 0.8300 the figure. EUR/GBP focused on risk trends,

EUR/GBP bounces off 2020 lows, back above 0.8300.GBP loses momentum following UK PM spokesman comments.UK jobs, CPI, Retail Sales, PMI expected later this week.The renewed offered bias around the quid is helping EUR/GBP to extend the rebound to levels beyond 0.8300 the figure. EUR/GBP focused on risk trends, data The euro has started the week with renewed optimism against the backdrop of decreasing concerns regarding the Chinese COVID-19, which is also sponsoring the improved sentiment in the broader risk complex. The British pound has faded initial gains after UK PM Johnson’s spokesman poured cold water over optimism over a UK-EU trade agreement, saying that the UK is not looking for anything special when comes to trade negotiations with the EU. In the data space, the sterling is expected to be in centre of stage later this week in light of the release of the UK’s labour market report (Tuesday), January’s inflation figures (Wednesday), Retail Sales (Thursday) and the Services PMI (Friday). on the EUR-side, the ECB will publish its Accounts from the latest meeting (Thursday) ahead of preliminary PMIs in core Euroland at the end of the week. EUR/GBP key levels The cross is up 0.34% at 0.8329 and faces the next hurdle at 0.8433 (21-day SMA) seconded by 0.8471 (55-day SMA) and then 0.8537 (weekly/monthly high Feb.4). On the flip side, a breach of 0.8295 (2020 low Feb.13) would expose 0.8275 (2019 low Dec.13) and then 0.8248 (monthly low July 2016).

USD/JPY is neutral for a third consecutive day, as dismal Japanese data constrain appetite for the yen. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, a

USD/JPY is neutral for a third consecutive day, as dismal Japanese data constrain appetite for the yen. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, analyze the pair’s outlook.  Key quotes “Growth in the last quarter of 2019 contracted by more than anticipated, than by 1.6% QoQ, while the annualized growth in the same period came in at -6.3%. Also, Industrial Production in the country was down by 3.1% MoM in December, while Capacity Utilization fell by 0.4%.” “The USD/JPY pair is trading in the 109.80 price zone, neutral in the short-term. The 4-hour chart shows that it’s seesawing around a flat 20 SMA, still above the larger ones, while technical indicators stand around their midlines, without clear directional strength.” “The pair would need to clear the 110.00 level to be able to extend its advance toward the year high, at 110.28. Chances of such advance, however, are quite limited at the time being. The downside potential is limited as long as the pair holds above 109.40, the immediate support.”  

"The epidemic control has shown an active improving trend," China's Premier Li Keqiang told the Chinese state media on Monday and added that the sees

"The epidemic control has shown an active improving trend," China's Premier Li Keqiang told the Chinese state media on Monday and added that the sees a positive trend in the prevention of the coronavirus infections. Earlier in the day, Guo Yanhong, a hospital administration supervisor at China’s National Health Commission (NHC) noted that the coronavirus was "preventable and treatable." Market reaction Although the market reaction to Premier Li's comments was muted, the market sentiment stays positive with major European equity indexes posting modest gains and the USD/JPY pair staying in the positive territory a little below the 110 mark.

The USD/JPY failed to hold above the 110 handle last week as the broad USD strength helped the pair limit its losses despite heightened safe-haven dem

Major European equity indexes post modest gains on Monday.US Dollar Index consolidates last week's gains above 99.Markets expected to stay calm in the second half of the day.The USD/JPY failed to hold above the 110 handle last week as the broad USD strength helped the pair limit its losses despite heightened safe-haven demand for JPY. At the start of the new week, easing worries over the coronavirus having a significant negative impact on the Chinese economy allowed the market sentiment to improve. Nevertheless, the pair doesn't seem to be building up enough momentum to make a decisive break above 110. As of writing, the pair was up 0.12% on the day at 109.88. Earlier in the day, China's Finance Minister Liu Kun said they are planning to introduce tax cuts to help the economy stay resilient amid the coronavirus outbreak. Reflecting the upbeat market sentiment, major European equity indexes are adding between 0.2% and 0.4% on Monday. Presidents' Day holiday in US In the second half of the day, US financial markets will be closed in observance of Presidents' Day and markets will be waiting for the Asian session to assess the market sentiment. There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from Japan either. At the start of the week, the data published by Japan's Ministry of Economy revealed that Industrial Production in December expanded by 1.2% but brought the annual rate down to -3.1% from 3%. Technical levels to watch for  

We are not seeking anything special from the EU in trade talks, we want something similar to other deals they have struck," British Prime Minister Bor

We are not seeking anything special from the EU in trade talks, we want something similar to other deals they have struck," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman said on Monday. "We are ready to negotiate now, we want the relationship to be based on friendly cooperation." GBP reaction These comments seem to be weighing on the British pound. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was down 0.23% on a daily basis at 1.3015 and the EUR/GBP pair was up 0.3% at 0.8335.

The sharp pullback in EUR/USD seems to have met contention in the 1.0830/25 band, or new 2020 lows recorded at the end of last week. Extreme “oversold

EUR/USD bounces off 2020 lows in the 1.0830/25 band (Friday).The next hurdle of note emerges at the 21-day SMA near 1.0990.The sharp pullback in EUR/USD seems to have met contention in the 1.0830/25 band, or new 2020 lows recorded at the end of last week. Extreme “oversold” conditions as well as improved risk appetite trends are sustaining the rebound from recent lows, although its extension and duration still remains to be seen. In the meantime, the next interim hurdle emerges at the 1.0980 region (January lows). This area of resistance is also reinforced by the 21-day SMA near 1.0990 Further out, while below the 55-day SMA, today ay 1.1069, further downside should remain well on the table. Against this backdrop, the next support of note aligns at 1.0814, the 78.6% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 rally. EUR/USD daily chart  

DXY is losing some momentum after being rejected once again from YTD peaks near 99.20 earlier in the session. The current overbought levels in the dol

The rally in DXY run out of some steam near the 99.20 level.The next target on the upside remains at 99.37 (September 3rd 2019).DXY is losing some momentum after being rejected once again from YTD peaks near 99.20 earlier in the session. The current overbought levels in the dollar coupled with the better mood in the riskier assets could motivate the index to extend the corrective downside to, initially, the November 2019 top at 98.54 in the near-term. Looking at the broader picture, the constructive perspective on the dollar is seen unaltered as long as the 200-day SMA at 97.77 underpins. DXY daily chart  

Jane Foley, a Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, reviews the Commitment of Traders report highlighting the positive net positions on the Swiss franc. E

Jane Foley, a Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, reviews the Commitment of Traders report highlighting the positive net positions on the Swiss franc. EUR/CHF is trading at 1.064. Key quotes “In January demand for the CHF was lifted by the news that the US Treasury put Switzerland back on its FX monitoring list after a short break.”   “Speculators appeared to have taken the view that this may make the SNB less inclined to intervene to prevent further CHF gains.” "Safe-haven demand linked with the coronavirus and weak German data have also lent support.”  

EUR/JPY has regained some traction on the back of the improved sentiment surrounding the riskier assets at the beginning of the week. If the recovery

EUR/JPY is extending the bounce off 2020 lows near 118.80.The next target of relevance emerges at the 200-day SMA near 120.50.EUR/JPY has regained some traction on the back of the improved sentiment surrounding the riskier assets at the beginning of the week. If the recovery gains serious traction, then the key 200-day SMA, today at 120.44, should return to the investors’ radar in the near term. Above the key 200-day SMA the cross is expected to accelerate gains towards monthly tops at 121.15 (February 5th). EUR/JPY daily chart  

Economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland analyze the United Kingdom outlook once it is out of the European Union. EUR/GBP’s exchange rate is 0.832 rig

Economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland analyze the United Kingdom outlook once it is out of the European Union. EUR/GBP’s exchange rate is 0.832 right now.  Key quotes “The UK economy grew by 1.4% in 2019 – slightly better than the 1.3% in 2018 but still far from a stellar performance. It looks like the government is serious about using fiscal policy ammunition to support the economy.” “Jonathan Haskel, a renowned academic and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, recently spoke about the link between the intangible investment and monetary policy. Companies are investing more in intangibles and less in machines and equipment. But it is harder to borrow against the intangibles. If the conventional financial system finds it hard to lend against intangible assets, then the increasing role of intangibles in the economy will contribute to a lower long-run real interest rate. That is one reason to expect low-rate environment to persist.” “The second estimate of euro area and the EU GDP growth in Q4 confirmed it increased a mere 0.1%. But in better news it was revealed that the number of employed persons increased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU during the same period, accelerating from a 0.1% in both areas in the previous period and beating market expectations of 0.1%. On an annualised basis employment went up by 1.0% in euro area and by 0.9% in the EU. This was the first release of GDP and employment numbers in which EU does not include the UK – many more changes to com  

Analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank are expecting a deterioration in the second half of 2020 which will lead to policy rate cut both in New Zealand

Analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank are expecting a deterioration in the second half of 2020 which will lead to policy rate cut both in New Zealand and the United States. NZD/USD is being exchanged at 0.643. Key quotes “We continue to forecast one more OCR cut, in August, based on our expectation global sentiment will deteriorate later this year, and the US economy will slow, causing the Fed to cut its policy rate.” “There is no strong domestic reason for the RBNZ to contemplate easing. It noted an unexpected pickup in GDP growth, house prices and wage growth over the past quarter, and expected these themes to endure over 2020 along with an increase in government spending.” “NZD/USD consolidating but vulnerable to pandemic-led fall below 0.6400. Then potential for rebound to 0.6600 in Q2 as NZ economic outperformance is recognised and USD weakens on Fed easing prospects.”  

Economists at Standard Chartered Bank met with investors who are concerned about weakening fundamentals amid wider fiscal deficit and large debt repay

Economists at Standard Chartered Bank met with investors who are concerned about weakening fundamentals amid wider fiscal deficit and large debt repayments on Sri Lanka’s economy. USD/LKR is trading at 181.459.  Key quotes “We estimate the 2019 fiscal deficit at 6.4% of GDP, although it could be lower given the deferral of spending from last year. Most clients see a risk that the 2020 deficit could breach 8% (the IMF estimates 7.9%).” “Most investors expect Sri Lanka’s fundamentals to deteriorate during the pre election period, and to start improving from Q4-2020.”  “Sharp Sri Lankan rupee (LKR) deterioration is seen as a risk if external stability concerns continue to rise with no new IMF programme in sight.”  “The consensus view is that GDP growth will bounce back to the 3.5-4.0% range in 2020, given significant fiscal stimulus and the 150bps of monetary easing already delivered by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). We forecast growth at 4.0% this year.”  “Most investors shared our view that the CBSL has limited room to cut policy rates further near-term given the risks this would pose to external-sector stability.”  

The USD/CHF pair failed to capitalize on the early uptick and has now retreated to the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.9815 region.

USD/CHF fails to capitalize on the early uptick to near two-month tops.A mildly softer tone surrounding the USD seemed to exert some pressure.The downside remains cushioned amid improving global risk sentiment.The USD/CHF pair failed to capitalize on the early uptick and has now retreated to the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.9815 region. The pair witnessed a modest intraday pullback from near two-month tops and for now, seems to have stalled its recent bullish trajectory witnessed over the past two weeks amid a mildly softer tone surrounding the US dollar. The downside is likely to remain limited The greenback remained on the defensive at the start of a new trading week and eased further from 4-1/2 month tops touched ahead of Friday's slight disappointment from the US core retail sales and Retail Sales Control Group figures. However, a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment – amid easing concerns over the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus – undermined the Swiss franc's perceived safe-haven demand and might help limit any deeper losses. Given that the US bank will remain closed on Monday in observance of Presidents' Day, investors might refrain from placing any aggressive bets, which might eventually lead to a subdued/range-bound price action on Monday. Technical levels to watch  

The NZD/USD pair edged lower at the start of the week but didn't have a hard time erasing its losses. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6440, w

NZ PM Arden expects coronaivurs outbreak to hurt economy in H1.China voices commitment to stimulate economy via tax cuts.US financial markets are closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.The NZD/USD pair edged lower at the start of the week but didn't have a hard time erasing its losses. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6440, where it was virtually unchanged on a daily basis. Eyes on coronavirus headlines Commenting on New Zealand Treasury's economic forecasts, Prime Minister Jacinda Arden noted that the coronavirus outbreak was seen on the economic growth during the first half of the year. In the meantime, the ANZ Bank's Monthly Inflation Gauge stayed unchanged at 3.2% on a yearly basis. Although the NZD struggled to find demand during the Asian session, China's commitment to helping the economy allowed antipodeans to show resilience. China's Finance Minister Liu Kun said that they will be introducing "targeted and phased measures" to cut taxes with an aim to stimulate the economy in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.  The market action is expected to be subdued in the second half of the day on Monday as US financial markets will remain closed in observance of Presidents Day. The only macroeconomic data featured from New Zealand will be the REINZ House Price Index. Technical levels to watch for  

Monday's four-hour chart is pointing to potential gains for the GBP/USD pair while a double resistance awaits at 1.3070 as FXStreet’s analyst Yohay El

Monday's four-hour chart is pointing to potential gains for the GBP/USD pair while a double resistance awaits at 1.3070 as FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam notes.  Key quotes “Momentum on the four-hour chart remains positive for cable that is battling the 200 Simple Moving Average after surpassing the 50 and 100 SMAs. Bulls remain in control.” “Resistance awaits at 1.3070, which has capped the pair twice in February – a double-top. The next level to watch is 1.3110, capping GBP/USD in late January.”

According to Barclays analysts led by Tetsufumi Yamakawa in Tokyo, there is an increasing chance the Japanese economy could head in to a technical rec

According to Barclays analysts led by Tetsufumi Yamakawa in Tokyo, there is an increasing chance the Japanese economy could head in to a technical recession mainly due to the negative impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19). Key Quotes: “Japanese real GDP contracted 3.2% on a quarterly basis, a little better than market consensus of -3.8%. This is all pre-coronavirus and mostly due to domestic tax matters. There is an increasing risk in first quarter weakness due to the Covid-19 impacts, and if that leads to negative growth, and it could, Japan hits a technical recession with back to back contraction. Weaker China tourism and a decrease in trade with China is a huge headwind for Japan. The probability of a recession there has surged to 69%.”    

The cable is holding onto gains amid hopes for fiscal stimulus, as investors are shrugging off heightened Brexit rhetoric, Yohay Elam from FXStreet re

The cable is holding onto gains amid hopes for fiscal stimulus, as investors are shrugging off heightened Brexit rhetoric, Yohay Elam from FXStreet reports.  Key quotes “The perceived willingness of Prime Minister Boris Johnson to open the UK's purse strings continues having a positive impact on the pound.” “Investors assume that if Johnson moves forward with infrastructure spending, the government's stimulus will relieve the Bank of England of its need to cut interest rates.”  “Jean Yves le Drian, France's foreign minister, said that both sides will ‘rip off each other’ in talks. David Frost, Britain's top negotiators, is set to present more details about the UK's stance and according to excerpts released to the press, it will contain new demands on labor rights in the post-Brexit world.” “So far, pound/dollar seems relatively unaffected by developments related to the respiratory disease but the news is coming out thick and fast.”  

The GBP/USD pair remained confined in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3040-50 region through the early European session on Monday. The pair lacked

GBP/USD consolidates last week’s strong positive move of over 200 pips.Fears of a no-deal Brexit held investors from placing any fresh bullish bets.A subdued USD demand does little to influence amid thin liquidity conditions.The GBP/USD pair remained confined in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3040-50 region through the early European session on Monday. The pair lacked any firm directional bias on the first day of a new trading week and was seen consolidating last week's strong positive move of around 200 pips, awaiting fresh catalyst for the next leg of a directional move. Bulls preferred to stay on the sidelines The British pound remained supported by the latest UK political development, wherein Rishi Sunak was appointed as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, following the resignation from his predecessor Sajid Javid. Sunak is believed to be more aligned with the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's policy and favours fiscal stimulus, which was seen as taking some pressure off the Bank of England to cut rates immediately. However, persistent market fears that Britain might crash out of the European Union at the end of the transition period held investors from placing aggressive bullish bets and kept a lid on the positive move. Meanwhile, a subdued US dollar demand – amid relatively thin liquidity conditions – also did little to provide any meaningful impetus and further contributed to the pair's range-bound price action on Monday. In absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the UK or the US, the pair remains at the mercy of any incoming Brexit-related headlines/developments ahead of this week's important macro data. This week's UK economic docket highlights the release of monthly jobs report and the latest consumer inflation figures on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, which should provide a fresh directional impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Speaking at the Indonesia Economic and Investment Outlook 2020 co-held by the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) and EuroCham Indonesia, the country

Speaking at the Indonesia Economic and Investment Outlook 2020 co-held by the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) and EuroCham Indonesia, the country’s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati urged European companies operating in Indonesia to utilize tax holiday, in a bid to take advantage of the fiscal incentive schemes and in turn boost investment. Key Quotes I am really hoping that other European countries would participate and become our top investors. Some 1,100 European companies are currently recorded to be operating in Indonesia. This remains a small figure for Europe, as such a big continent, to be the largest economic partner for the Southeast Asian region. Thus, I hope EuroCham would bring more companies to this country. Rupiah at three-day tops Amid China’s support measures to cushion the blow of the coronavirus’ negative impact on the economy and downbeat Indonesian Trade data, the USD/IDR pair hit a new three-day low at 13,652 in the last minutes. The comments by the Indonesian Finance Minister could have likely bolstered the IDR bulls.

Having reached the highest level in three weeks at $52.63 in early Asia, WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) witnessed a wild ride before entering a consolidat

WTI caught between coronavirus-led demand concerns and OPEC+ cuts hopes.US holiday-led quiet trading adds to the upside consolidative mode.  Focus remains on virus updates and US weekly crude supplies for directives.Having reached the highest level in three weeks at $52.63 in early Asia, WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) witnessed a wild ride before entering a consolidative mode around 52.30 levels, where it now wavers. The subdued trading activity seen in the black gold can be partly attributed to thin trading, as the US traders away on account of President’s Day holiday. The bulls also take a breather after the commodity rallied nearly 3.5% last week. Meanwhile, markets refrain from placing any directional bet on the barrel of WTI, as they remain divided between rising China’s oil demand concerns, in the wake of growing coronavirus risks and its economic impact, and expectations that the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) will extend the output cuts to stabilize oil markets. The latest monthly oil reports by both OPEC and International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed to the dwindling 2020 oil demand growth outlook across the globe amid the coronavirus outbreak. Markets will continue to eye the coronavirus-related updates for any impact on the risk sentiment, which will eventually influence the oil price moves. Meanwhile,  the US weekly Crude Stocks Change data due later this week will remain in focus for a fresh trading direction. WTI Technical levels to consider  

The world's most popular currency pair hit a 34-month low at 1.0820 and is attempting a recovery. Nevertheless, fundamentals and technicals are pointi

The world's most popular currency pair hit a 34-month low at 1.0820 and is attempting a recovery. Nevertheless, fundamentals and technicals are pointing lower in the opinion of Yohay Elam from FXStreet.  Key quotes “While the US is on holiday today – celebrating Presidents' Day – the German Bundesbank is set to provide an updated view on the economy in its monthly report, potentially adding pressure on the common currency. The central bank may provide comments on the coronavirus outbreak that has hit China.” “The Relative Strength Index of the four-hour chart has risen above 30 – exiting oversold conditions – and allowing for fresh falls. Downside momentum is significant and the currency pair trades well below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages.”  “Critical support awaits at 1.0820, which is the recent low and also the upper end of the ‘Macron Gap’.” “The other side of the gap is 1.0770, followed by 1.0720.”  

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on February 11th. Speculators kept the negative view on EUR for yet an

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on February 11th. Speculators kept the negative view on EUR for yet another week, taking gross shorts to the highest level since early November 2016 to more than 255K contracts and therefore the net shorts climbed to the highest level since mid-June 2019. Poor results in fundamentals in the euro area reminded investors that the slowdown in the region (and the ‘looser for longer’ stance in the ECB) are here to stay.USD net longs climbed to the highest level since December 10th 2019 on the back of renewed inflows into the buck in response to concerns around the COVID-19. In addition, positive results from the US calendar also collaborated with the upside momentum in DXY, particularly in sharp contrast with publications in the euro area. Net longs in the sterling posted a 3-week high, as investors’ sentiment remains buoyant following the UK-EU divorce and ahead of key negotiations between both parties on the trade front.

The GBP/JPY cross lacked any firm directional bias and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, above the 143.00 mark through the early European

GBP/JPY consolidates last week’s strong positive move of over 200 pips.The technical set-up support prospects for a further appreciating move.The GBP/JPY cross lacked any firm directional bias and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, above the 143.00 mark through the early European session on Monday. Given last week's strong positive move of over 200 pips, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a consolidation phase amid absent fundamental catalyst. Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly/daily charts have managed to hold with a mild positive bias and support prospects for an extension of the recent bullish momentum. However, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break through a two-month-old descending trend-line before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Above the mentioned barrier, the cross seems all set to aim towards reclaiming the 144.00 mark before eventually darting to yearly tops, around the 144.50-60 supply zone. GBP/JPY daily chart  

Neil Shearing, an economist at Capital Economics, counts the first evidence of the impact the coronavirus has caused in the Chinese economy which has

Neil Shearing, an economist at Capital Economics, counts the first evidence of the impact the coronavirus has caused in the Chinese economy which has been severe. USD/CNY is traded at 6.9804, the same level it started the year.  Key quotes “The past week has brought the first evidence of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus. The numbers are stark. Passenger traffic in China is down by around 60% compared to the same period around the Lunar New Year holiday last year. Property sales have collapsed. And energy consumption has failed to rebound following its usual drop over the holiday period.”  “There are also signs that the disruption is starting to spread to neighbouring economies through supply chains. Imports to Korea from China during the first ten days of this month fell by nearly 50% y/y.”  “We have pencilled in a fall in output of 2.5% q/q (-10% annualised) on our CAP measure in the first quarter. The more important question, however, is how quickly any lost output can be made up.” “If workplaces reopen soon, we think activity should rebound relatively quickly with lost output recovered over the rest of this year. But a prolonged shutdown could mean lost output is never recovered.”

At a daily press conference on Monday, Guo Yanhong, a hospital administration supervisor at China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said that that no

At a daily press conference on Monday, Guo Yanhong, a hospital administration supervisor at China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said that that novel coronavirus is preventable and treatable. The percentage of infected patients in virus epicenter Wuhan who are critically ill had dropped to 18% now from 38% at the beginning of the outbreak, she added. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the virus has infected more than 71,000 people globally and killed 1,775, the majority in China. Meanwhile, the Chinese authorities continue to step up support measures to combat the negative impact the virus outbreak is potentially having on both China’s and global economy. Therefore, the risk sentiment remains balance starting out a new week, with USD/JPY holding firmer around 109.85 region, as S&P 500 futures advance 0.25%. The Aussie also benefits from the Chinese stimulus and trades near 0.6725, having hit daily highs at 0.6734.

USD/CNH is seen sticking to its current consolidative theme, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.9814 an

USD/CNH is seen sticking to its current consolidative theme, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.9814 and 6.9968 last Friday, narrower than our expected sideway-trading range of 6.9650/6.9980. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways, likely between 6.9750 and 6.9950.” Next 1-3 weeks: “USD touched 7.0230 early last week and since then, it traded sideways in a relatively choppy manner. The price action is in line with our view from last Thursday (06 Feb, spot at 6.9780) wherein USD is expected to ‘trade sideways for now’. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and from here, we continue to expect USD to trade within a 6.9500/7.0230 range.”

CME Group’s advanced prints for Copper futures markets noted traders added nearly 2.5K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday, reaching

CME Group’s advanced prints for Copper futures markets noted traders added nearly 2.5K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday, reaching the fourth build in a row. Volume, instead, shrunk by almost 54K contracts, resuming the downside. Copper prices face some consolidation Friday’s retracement in prices of the base metal was on the back of rising open interest, opening the door to a deeper pullback in the near-term. However, the moderate drop in volume could remove tailwinds from the potential decline and spark some consolidation instead.

The greenback remained on the defensive against its Canadian counterpart and pushed the USD/CAD pair to fresh two-week lows on the first day of a new

USD/CAD edges lower for the second consecutive session on Monday.Positive oil prices underpinned the loonie and exerted some pressure.The USD stood tall near 4-1/2 month tops and helped limit losses.The greenback remained on the defensive against its Canadian counterpart and pushed the USD/CAD pair to fresh two-week lows on the first day of a new trading week. The pair extended its recent retracement slide from four-month tops and witnessed some follow-through weakness for the second consecutive session on Monday, also marking its fourth day of a negative move in the previous five. The downside seems limited Improving global risk sentiment assisted crude oil prices to add to last week's strong gains of around 3.5%, which underpinned demand for the commodity-linked currency – the loonie and kept exerting some pressure on the major. Oil prices were supported by expectations for further output cuts from major producers. However, concerns of falling fuel demand – caused by the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak in China – might cap further gains. Meanwhile, investors looked past Friday's mixed US macro data and helped the US Dollar Index to hold steady well within the striking distance of 4-1/2 month tops, above the 99.00 mark, which might help limit deeper losses. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling, possibly below the very important 200-day SMA, before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move amid absent relevant market-moving economic data. Technical levels to watch  

The EUR/NOK pair is set to test the 10.00 level but a further strengthening of the NOK will require a lift in oil prices in the opinion of economists

The EUR/NOK pair is set to  test the 10.00 level but a further strengthening of the NOK will require a lift in oil prices in the opinion of economists at Nordea.  EUR/NOK is trading at 10.026 right now.  Key quotes “NOK is benefitting from lower Covid-19 infection rates through a returning demand for risky assets. A test of the 10.00-level in EUR/NOK looks likely within the coming week. However, significant strengthening of NOK beyond the 9.90-9.95-level will probably require a more fundamental lift in oil prices, which so far remains to be seen despite better mood in equities.” “Norges Bank has no tradition of rocking the boat due to short-term volatility in markets. However, the virus reaction in financial markets would still affect Norges Bank’s rate path if they were to make one today, as changes in foreign rates, NOK and oil prices are treated quite mechanically by Norges Bank when they construct the rate path.”  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is likely to trade within a side-lined theme in the next weeks, although an attempt to 110.00 and b

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is likely to trade within a side-lined theme in the next weeks, although an attempt to 110.00 and beyond still remains on the cards. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD did not ‘do much’ last Friday as it traded between 109.68 and 109.90, markedly narrower than our expected sideway-trading range of 109.50/110.00. Indicators are mostly flat and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways, likely between 109.60 and 110.00.” Next 1-3 weeks: “USD traded in a quiet manner last Friday before closing not much changed at 109.74 (-0.06%). The price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold the same view from last Tuesday (11 Feb, spot at 109.75) wherein USD is expected to ‘trade

A side-effect of the coronavirus is that we will have a substantial disinflationary vibe coming up in March and April, according to analysts at Nordea

A side-effect of the coronavirus is that we will have a substantial disinflationary vibe coming up in March and April, according to analysts at Nordea. EUR/SEK is currently at 10.533.   Key quotes “Energy prices will be down at least 20% year over year in April. We will see that across the globe in inflation readings and it leaves a generally dovish taste in our mouths.” “The interesting thing is that the Riksbank already acknowledged this temporary disinflationary environment due to energy prices last week but refrained from doing much about it. Even the rhetoric was kept largely unchanged, which leaves us with a slightly constructive SEK outlook in the short-term.” “The short-term caveat to that view is the January inflation report out this week. January is almost notoriously a month that brings about negative inflation surprises in Sweden and this year we also lean that way from a risk/reward perspective given that the setback in energy prices is about to filter into inflation readings.”  

Open interest and volume in Crude Oil futures markets decreased by nearly 41K contracts and almost 310K contracts, respectively, on Friday according t

Open interest and volume in Crude Oil futures markets decreased by nearly 41K contracts and almost 310K contracts, respectively, on Friday according to flash data from CME Group. WTI appears capped around $52.00 Friday’s corrective upside in prices of the WTI was in tandem with shrinking open interest and volume, signalling the presence of short covering behind the move up. That said, recent tops just above the $52.00 mark per barrel should still act as a strong resistance, at least in the very near-term.

The shared currency has started the week on a positive note and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of 1.0840 region, up smalls for the day. EUR/USD fo

EUR/USD attempts some consolidation around 1.0840.Volatility seen diminished as US markets are closed on Monday.ZEW Survey, ECB Accounts, flash PMIs due later in the week.The shared currency has started the week on a positive note and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of 1.0840 region, up smalls for the day. EUR/USD focused on China, data After bottoming out in the 1.0830/25 band – or new YTD lows – at the end of last week, the pair has managed to regain some poise and is now returning to the 1.0840 area amidst a generalized consolidative mood in the global markets. In the meantime, concerns around the COVID-19 in China continue to ebb, lending extra support to the risk-associated universe and motivating investors to look to the data front for direction in the short-term horizon. Absent data releases in Euroland on Monday, the focus of attention will be on the ZEW Survey (Tuesday), the ECB Accounts of the January meeting (Thursday) and the advanced gauges of PMIs in core Euroland (Friday). across the pond, the publication of the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be in centre stage. What to look for around EUR The pair has so far managed to bounce off YTD lows around 1.0830 on Friday, although the bearish mood surrounding the European currency remains far from abated. In the meantime, USD-dynamics are expected to dictate the pair’s price action for the time being along with the broad risk trends, where the COVID-19 is still in the centre of the debate. On another front, the ECB is expected to finish its “strategic review” (announced at its January meeting) by year-end, leaving speculations of any change in the monetary policy before that time pretty flat. Further out, latest results from the German and EMU dockets continue to support the view that any attempt of recovery in the region remains elusive for the time being and is expected to keep weighing on the currency. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.09% at 1.0838 and faces the initial hurdle at 1.0957 (weekly high Feb.10) seconded by 1.0988 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1069 (55-day SMA). On the downside, a breach of 1.0827 (weekly/2020 low Feb.14) would target 1.0814 (78.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017).

Strategists at Nordea continue to expect more downside pressure in the EUR/USD pair as the probability of Trump winning the election keeps rising, whi

Strategists at Nordea continue to expect more downside pressure in the EUR/USD pair as the probability of Trump winning the election keeps rising, which is good for the US dollar.  Key quotes “As long as the Democrats are busy obstructing each other, it seems as if Trump's tailwind has no limit. This is one simple reason why we continue to look for more downside in EUR/USD.” “The EUR has been sold broadly as German key figures have had a smelly week. (...) Current EUR trends may though fuel speculation that Trump will punish the Euro area with auto tariffs. Timing couldn’t be any worse, if he opted for such over the coming quarters.” “Maybe the EUR will be helped a little by the PMI print this week. Most analysts seem to conclude that the virus will push the PMI lower again, but shouldn’t we usually expect a lagged effect on Germany from Chinese key figures. Our market based model is getting increasingly upbeat – maybe risks are on the upside for the PMI print. We bet so.”  

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect AUD/USD to keep the rangebound theme unchanged for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Instead of 'edging dow

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect AUD/USD to keep the rangebound theme unchanged for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Instead of 'edging down towards 0.6690', AUD trade in a quiet manner and within a narrow range of 0.6710/0.6732. Momentum indicators are mostly ‘neutral’ and AUD is likely to continue to trade sideways. Expected range for today, 0.6705/0.6740.” Next 1-3 weeks: “AUD traded in a quiet manner last Friday (14 Feb) and registered an ‘inside day’ before closing little changed at 0.6715 (-0.05%). The price action offers no fresh clues and for now, we are holding on to our view from last Thursday (13 Feb, spot at 0.6730) wherein AUD is expected to trade sideways between 0.6650 and 0.6780.”

Gold edged lower on the first day of a new trading week and for now, seems to have snapped two consecutive days of winning streak. The precious metal

Gold retreats from two-week tops amid receding demand for traditional safe-haven assets.The USD remains well supported near 4-1/2 month tops and collaborates to the weaker tone.Gold edged lower on the first day of a new trading week and for now, seems to have snapped two consecutive days of winning streak. The precious metal failed to capitalize on its recent positive move to near two-week tops and edged lower during the early European session on Monday amid fading safe-haven demand. Gold weighed down by a combination of factors As investors assessed China's latest restrictions to prevent the spreading of the deadly coronavirus, a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment weighed on traditional safe-haven assets. It is worth reporting that China has told around 60-million people in the Hubei province to stay at home unless there is an emergency and the use of private cars have been banned indefinitely. This coupled with the fact that the number of new cases has been dropping over the past three days further eased market concerns collaborated to the mildly weaker tone surrounding the commodity. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stood tall near 4-1/2 month tops, which exerted some additional pressure and forced the dollar-denominated commodity to erode a part of its gains recorded on Friday. It, however, remains to be seen if a modest downtick to $1580 level marks the end of the recent positive move or attract some dip-buying amid thin liquidity conditions on the back of a holiday in the US. Technical levels to watch  

Economists at ANZ Research review the data released by the Asian country which showed a sharp drop in GDP growth for the last quarter of 2019. USD/THB

Economists at ANZ Research review the data released by the Asian country which showed a sharp drop in GDP growth for the last quarter of 2019. USD/THB trades at 31.20 as the pair has escalated since the start of 2020.  Key quotes “Thailand’s GDP growth slowed sharply in Q4 to just 1.6% y/y, the weakest since Q3 2014.”  “The economic outlook remains challenging amid headwinds stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak and inclement weather conditions.”  “With conventional policy space diminishing, the bar for a further rate cut will be high. Nonetheless, the pressure on the BoT to act again will rise if the economic outlook continues to deteriorate.” “Our current growth forecast for 2020 is 2.3% y/y. (...) The National Economic and Social Development Council is forecasting growth of 1.5-2.5%.”  

Analysts at Danske Bank expect more US dollar strength in the coming weeks, therefore, they think additional USD longs have potential. Key quotes “We

Analysts at Danske Bank expect more US dollar strength in the coming weeks, therefore, they think additional USD longs have potential.  Key quotes “We still think the all overarching theme is the strengthening of the broad USD, its ramifications for other asset classes and the subsequent spill-over effects to the rest of G10 and EM-majors.”  “Our predisposition is for more USD strength and it is especially noteworthy how IMM data do not suggest that USD positioning is particularly stretched long – if stretched at all.” “Leveraged accounts have heavily added short EUR/USD positions in recent weeks but we believe in a potential for additional USD longs and a continuation of the greenback rally.”  

Turkey Budget Balance up to 21.5B in January from previous -30.8B

New Zealand Business NZ PSI climbed from previous 51.9 to 57.1 in January

In the latest client note, Damien Courvalin, the commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, cut its oil price target by $10 to $53 in Q1 through the end o

In the latest client note, Damien Courvalin, the commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, cut its oil price target by $10 to $53 in Q1 through the end of the year amid weakening Chinese oil demand due to the coronavirus outbreak. Key Quotes (via oilprice.com): “Fundamental uncertainty in the oil market is exceptionally high. The loss of Chinese and global oil demand from the coronavirus outbreak is significant but remains unknown in both scale and duration while the timing and scale of a potential OPEC+ production cut remains highly uncertain as well. As a result, in his first attempt at measuring this hit on Chinese demand points to a peak of 4 million b/d YoY loss in demand currently. Mapping the residual OECD inventory path to his pricing model points to a gradual recovery in oil prices from current levels with Brent prices of $53, $57, $60 and $65/bbl for the rest of 1Q through 4Q 2020 vs. our prior $63/bbl forecast (with WTI $4.5/bbl lower). Will update these forecasts as details on the hit to Chinese and global oil demand and a potential OPEC supply response become available. There remain high risks that Chinese oil storage capacity could run out should the demand loss be larger than we expect. This means that oil prices could overshoot even more to the downside, as risks to oil prices as skewed lower despite its already notable underperformance."

The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip and climbed to fresh session tops in the last hour, with bulls making a fresh attempt to reclaim the key 110.00

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buying after disappointing Japanese Q4 GDP growth figures.The safe-haven JPY was also weighed down by improvement in the global risk sentiment.Holiday in the US might hold investors from placing aggressive bullish bets and cap gains.The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip and climbed to fresh session tops in the last hour, with bulls making a fresh attempt to reclaim the key 110.00 psychological mark. The pair initially edged lower on the first day of a new trading week but managed to attract some dip-buying following the downbeat release of preliminary figures Q4 GDP figures from Japan. JPY weighed down by a combination of factors The world's third-largest economy shrank 1.6% during the three month to December – the largest drop in six years – while the annual growth rate also contracted more-than-expected by 6.3%. This coupled with a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment undermined the Japanese yen's perceived safe-haven demand and helped the pair to gain some positive traction on Monday. On the other hand, the US dollar consolidated its recent strong gains and stood tall near 4-1/2 month tops, albeit bulls might be reluctant to place any aggressive bets amid a holiday in the US. The US bank will remain closed on Monday in observance of Presidents' Day. Hence, it will be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the move or meets with some fresh supply at higher levels. Technical levels to watch  

AUD/USD continues recovering but needs to surpass the downtrend at 0.6744 to steams the rally. Karen Jones, ana analyst at Commerzbank reports. Key qu

AUD/USD continues recovering but needs to surpass the downtrend at 0.6744 to steams the rally. Karen Jones, ana analyst at Commerzbank reports.  Key quotes “AUD/USD continues to see a decent recovery from just ahead of the 2016-2020 support line at .6657, but rallies will need to overcome the accelerated downtrend at .6744 to alleviate immediate downside pressure and target the 200 day ma at .6855.”  “Below .6650 there is very little support until the .6535/.6488 TD supports on the weekly and monthly charts.”  

The EUR/JPY pair is in 4 months low, currently trading at 119.12. Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, recommends lowering stop-loss as she has a n

The EUR/JPY pair is in 4 months low, currently trading at 119.12. Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, recommends lowering stop-loss as she has a negative bias for the pair.  Key quotes “EUR/JPY’s outlook remains negative and we regard the 121.15 high charted recently as an interim peak.”  “We will maintain a negative bias and the break below the 119.26 mid-November low targets the 117.06 October low.” “Lower stop from 120.25 to 120.15.”  

Colombia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (3.1%) in 4Q

In an editorial piece for China’s Communist Party's magazine, the country’s Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote that Beijing is mulling over tax cuts to cu

In an editorial piece for China’s Communist Party's magazine, the country’s Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote that Beijing is mulling over tax cuts to cushion the blow of the coronavirus impact on the economy, as it is already showing signs of a slowdown, the UK’s Telegraph reported. Key Points: Beijing would use targeted and phased measures to cut taxes such as VAT for firms providing essential goods or logistics, while also providing more funds to contain the disease. While large-scale rolling back of taxes and fees may increase short. Meanwhile, the Xinhua news agency cited that a top legislative body of the Chinese parliament will meet on February 24 to discuss a proposal on delaying the key annual March meeting of parliament due to the virus outbreak. Market Implications: The Chinese stimulus and containment efforts seem to be cheering the investors, as upbeat risk tones are seen heading into the European open on Monday. The above headlines would add to the market optimism, as USD/JPY tests daily tops near 109.85 while the Aussie keeps gains around 0.6730 amid positive S&P 500 futures.

The GBP/USD pair on Friday initially edged lower but finally ended nearly unchanged for the day. Some follow-through buying beyond the 50-day SMA will

The GBP/USD pair on Friday initially edged lower but finally ended nearly unchanged for the day. Some follow-through buying beyond the 50-day SMA will trigger an appreciating move, according to Haresh Menghani from FXStreet.  Key quotes “The cable remained below 50-day SMA resistance and held steady around mid-1.30000s through the Asian session on the first trading day of a new week.” “There isn't any major market moving UK economic data due for release on Monday and the US banks will remain closed in observance of Presidents' Day, leaving the pair at the mercy of any fresh Brexit-related headlines/developments.”  “Bulls are likely to wait for some follow-through buying beyond 50-day SMA before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move towards the 1.3100 round-figure mark. The positive momentum could further get extended towards testing the next major hurdle near the 1.3145-50 supply zone.”  

The EUR/USD pair failed to capitalize on Friday's attempted intraday bounce. As US banks will not open today due to Presidents’ Day, the pair is likel

The EUR/USD pair failed to capitalize on Friday's attempted intraday bounce. As US banks will not open today due to Presidents’ Day, the pair is likely to consolidate its price in the opinion of Haresh Menghani from FXStreet.  Key quotes
“The pair seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Monday. Given that the US banks will be closed in observance of Presidents' Day, the pair seems more likely to extend its sideways consolidative price action amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the Eurozone.” 
“The market focus now shifts to this week's other important macro data, including the flash Eurozone PMI prints, which should provide a fresh impetus and play a key role in influencing the pair's near-term momentum.”
“Extremely oversold conditions warrant some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move. Immediate support is pegged near the 1.0800 round-figure mark and is followed by the lower end of a one-year-old descending trend-channel, currently near the 1.0785-80 region.”  

The Australian dollar held firm against its American counterpart and lifted the AUD/USD pair back closer to last week's swing high level of 0.6750. Fo

AUD/USD regains some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week.Improving risk sentiment remained supportive, stronger USD seemed to cap gains.The Australian dollar held firm against its American counterpart and lifted the AUD/USD pair back closer to last week's swing high level of 0.6750. Following a modest downtick over the past two sessions, the pair managed to regain some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week and was being supported by improving global risk sentiment. The upside seems limited As investors assessed the latest reading on coronavirus cases in the Hubei Province, expectations of more stimulus from China turned out to be one of the key factors lending some support to the China-proxy aussie. On the other hand, the US dollar consolidated its recent strong gains and stood tall near 4-1/2 month tops, which eventually might keep a lid on any strong follow-through positive move, at least for the time being. This coupled with the fact that the US bank will remain closed on Monday in observance of Presidents' Day further held investors from placing any aggressive bullish bets and might eventually cap gains for the major. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair might have already bottomed out in the near-term and positioning for any further appreciating move. Technical levels to watch  

Moody's Investors Service, the US-based ratings agency, on Monday, slashed its 2020 growth forecasts for India to 5.4% from 6.6% forecast earlier. Key

Moody's Investors Service, the US-based ratings agency, on Monday, slashed its 2020 growth forecasts for India to 5.4% from 6.6% forecast earlier. Key Findings: Expect a shallower recovery in Asia's third-largest economy given that global growth will likely take a hit following the virus outbreak in China. Improvements in the latest high frequency indicators such as PMI data suggest that the economy may have stabilized. While the economy may well begin to recover in the current quarter, we expect any recovery to be slower than we had previously expected. Accordingly, we have revised our growth forecasts to 5.4% for 2020 and 5.8% for 2021, down from our previous projections of 6.6% and 6.7%, respectively. A key to stronger economic momentum would be the revival of domestic demand, both rural and urban. But equally important is the resumption of credit growth in the economy. As data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows, credit impulse in the economy has deteriorated throughout the last year as a result of the drying up of lending from non-bank financial institutions as well as from banks. The deterioration in credit growth to the commercial sector is particularly stark. Earlier on Monday, Moody’s revised global growth forecasts down by two-tenths of a percentage point. Moody's: Coronavirus dents optimism just as global economy showed signs of stabilization

Norway Trade Balance declined to 21.2B in January from previous 25.6B

GBP/USD has kicked off the week above 1.30 and is looking for a new direction amid acrimonious Brexit headlines. While fundamentals seem adverse, tech

GBP/USD has kicked off the week above 1.30 and is looking for a new direction amid acrimonious Brexit headlines. While fundamentals seem adverse, technical levels look promising. The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that pound/dollar is sitting just above 1.3040, which is the convergence of the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the Simple Moving Average 100-15m, the SMA 5-4h, and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day.  Further down, a dense cluster awaits between 1.3015 and 1.3028. This includes the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the BB one-day Middle, the SMA 100-4h, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the BB 4h-Middle, the Pivot Point one-day Support 1, and the PP one-month S1.  Looking up, resistance awaits at 1.3075, which is the meeting point of the previous one-week high, the 50-day SMA, the PP one-day R1, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month. Higher, 1.3150 is where the PP one-day R3 and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month converge, and it serves as an upside target.  This is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. This means that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

According a statement release on China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ website on Monday, China approved the import of all poultry and po

According a statement release on China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ website on Monday, China approved the import of all poultry and poultry products from the US, per Reuters. Li Jinghui of the China Poultry Association said that the new announcement would also allow for the import of live birds, benefiting companies including Aviagen and Cobb-Vantress Inc, both based in the United States and among the world’s biggest poultry breeding companies. This comes after China and the US officially cut tariffs on each other’s goods on Friday for the first time in nearly two years, as a part of their preliminary trade deal reached last month. Cautious optimism prevail across the markets heading into Europe, with the Aussie maintaining the lead amongst the G10 currencies, in the wake of China’s economic support to counter the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

In light of advanced figures for Gold futures markets from CME Group, open interest increased for the second straight session on Friday, now by around

In light of advanced figures for Gold futures markets from CME Group, open interest increased for the second straight session on Friday, now by around 13.8K contracts. On the opposite side, volume extended the choppy activity and shrunk by almost 36.2K contracts, partially offsetting the previous build. Gold faces some consolidation Prices of the ounce troy of Gold seem to have met some resistance to prolong the move further north of the $1,580/85 area. That said, inconclusive performance in both open interest and volume could favour some consolidative mood at current levels, always looking to headlines regarding the progress of the COVID-19 in the very near-term.

FX option expiries for Feb 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0950 697m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.

FX option expiries for Feb 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0950 697m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8300 454m

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 17: China has announced it will stimulate the economy in the face of the coronavirus outbreak, inclu

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 17:China has announced it will stimulate the economy in the face of the coronavirus outbreak, including lower corporate taxes and increased spending. While most factories have returned to work, Beijing has tightened restrictions on movements in the Hubei province as the number of infections has topped 70,000 and the death toll is around 1,700. Outside China, the largest infection is on the Princess Diamond cruise ship. Markets are relatively calm with limited movements in currencies and gold. The Japanese economy squeezed by 1.6% in the fourth quarter, according to the preliminary release. A contraction – in response to an increase in a sales tax – was expected. However, the scale has disappointed and some fear the world's third-largest economy is set for an outright recession. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's approval rating dropped to 43%, yet mostly due to the government's handling of the coronavirus. Brexit: David Frost, Chief UK negotiator, has laid down an initial stance that includes significant demands. The EU has yet to respond ahead of official talks which kick off in March. GBP/USD is holding above 1.30 as investors seem to be waiting for substance. EUR/USD has started the new week close to the lowest levels since April 2017. The German central bank releases its monthly report later today after the country reported stagnation in the fourth quarter.Cryptocurrencies have been extending their losses after a weekend that saw substantial sell-offs. Bitcoin is trading around $9,800, Ethereum around $250, and XRP below $0.30. US markets are on holiday due to Presidents' Day, implying low volume.  More: Should forex traders watch governments and ignore central banks? Examining USD, EUR, GBP

Cable’s outlook is slightly positive, and the upside bias could extend to the 1.3160 region in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Cable’s outlook is slightly positive, and the upside bias could extend to the 1.3160 region in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for GBP to ‘edge nearer to 1.3100 before easing’ did not materialize as it traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.3001 and 1.3063 before settling little change at 1.3046 (+0.04%). The underlying tone is on the firm side and this would likely translate into a higher trading range of 1.3015/1.3080 (a sustained advance above 1.3085 is not expected).” Next 1-3 weeks: “While we noted yesterday (13 Feb, spot at 1.2955) that ‘downward pressure has more or less dissipated’, we expected GBP to ‘trade sideways within a 1.2850/1.3060 range’. However, GBP staged a sudden rally and moved above the top of the range as it touched 1.3069. Despite the strong advance, we do not view the current GBP strength as part of an uptrend. That said, the short-term strength could extend further to 1.3160 in the coming days. In other words, the outlook for GBP is deemed as mildly positive for now. Support is at 1.2990 but only a break of 1.2950 would indicate the upside risk has dissipated.”

According to preliminary prints from CME Group for JPY futures markets, investors scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in

According to preliminary prints from CME Group for JPY futures markets, investors scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by 592 contracts. Volume followed suit and dropped by nearly 43.5K contracts after two builds in a row. USD/JPY stays on track to retake 110.00 Friday’s knee-jerk in USD/JPY was accompanied by declining open interest and volume in the Japanese safe haven, signalling that extra gains in the yen could be temporary. Against this, the pair is expected to resume the upside and attempt another breakout of the 110.00 mark in the short-term horizon.

Open interest in GBP futures markets went down by just 723 contracts at the end of last week, reversing six consecutive build according to advanced re

Open interest in GBP futures markets went down by just 723 contracts at the end of last week, reversing six consecutive build according to advanced readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume shrunk by around 64.3K contracts, resuming the downside following the previous build. GBP/USD stays capped by 1.3100 Cable’s price action as of late and activity in open interest and volume suggest the recent upside was fuelled by short covering, leaving the upside somewhat limited in the short-term horizon. That said, the 55-day SMA in the 1.3060 region emerges as the initial hurdle ahead of the 1.31 neighbourhood, where GBP/USD is expected to meet stronger resistance.

Amid the rising death toll and new coronavirus cases reported in China, the support measures implemented by Beijing reassured investors. The Asian equ

Amid the rising death toll and new coronavirus cases reported in China, the support measures implemented by Beijing reassured investors. The Asian equities edged back towards a three-week high amid a better market mood while S&P 500 futures also gained 0.25%. However, the US Treasury yields traded modestly flat, which left the US dollar broadly subdued, still close to multi-month highs. In currency markets, AUD/USD caught a fresh bid-wave and jumped towards 0.6740 after the Chinese central bank pumped in CNY300 billion into the system to cushion the blow from the negative economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The Kiwi, however, failed to cheer the Chinese stimulus, as New Zealand’s PM Arden’s downbeat comments on the economy weighed and dragged the rates back in the red around 0.6430 region. USD/JPY remained supported around 109.85 levels amid growing Japan’s recession risks and upbeat risk tone. Japanese Oct-Dec GDP disappointed markets big time, as a sales tax hike and weaker consumer spending amid coronavirus spread dented growth. The recession risks also loomed for Singapore’s economy while Thai economic growth slipped to a five-year low. Meanwhile, EUR/USD attempted a corrective bounce on the 1.08 level while the cable traded almost unchanged around 1.3050 amid thin trading conditions on account of President’s Day in the US. On the commodities’ front, oil prices steadied amid fading hopes of an emergency OPEC+ meeting this month and ahead of the US weekly crude stocks data. Gold held near a two-week high, as uncertainty prevailed over the economic impact of the virus outbreak amd implementation of the US-China phase one trade deal. Main Topics in Asia China/US carry out phase one deal despite complications – Global Times Brexit: Britain and EU 'will rip each other apart' in trade talks – The Guardian GAC releases new measures to maintain market stability – China Daily China's Hubei province confirms another 1,933 new cases of coronavirus / 100 new deaths Japanese GDP SA (QoQ) Q4 -1.6% (est -1.0%; prev 0.1%; prev 0.4%) China pledged to roll out more effective stimulus – Bloomberg Japan’s Nishimura: Govt will swiftly implement emergency steps to counter coronavirus Moody's: Coronavirus dents optimism just as global economy showed signs of stabilization PBOC injects CNY 200 billion via one-year MLF on Monday Singapore cuts 2020 GDP forecast to 1.5% as virus poses recession risk NZ PM Arden: Forecasts are for virus to hurt economy in H1, rebound in H2 IMF’s Georgieva: May cut global growth forecast over coronavirus outbreak BOJ’s Kuroda: Will not hesitate to take action if needed amid coronavirus uncertainty Key Focus Ahead        After an eventful Asian session, the EUR economic docket remains relatively quiet amid an  absence of the first-tier macro releases. Therefore, the coronavirus updates led risk sentiment will continue to remain the main market motor while the focus will also remain on the USD dynamics. However, the Eurozone Construction Output data and German Buba monthly report will also offer some incentives to the EUR markets. There is nothing much of note to report in the NA session, as both the US and Canadian markets are closed in observance of their respective national holiday. EUR/USD: Speculators are their most net short since June 2019 The bearish sentiment around the EUR/USD pair is currently at its strongest in eight months. The path of least resistance is to the downside, but signs of risk reset may yield a minor bounce.  Short-term technical studies are now reporting oversold conditions.  GBP/USD awaits Brexit clues to stay above 1.3000 after Friday’s Dragonfly Doji GBP/USD stays on the back foot near mid-1.30s ahead of the London open on Monday. While pessimism surrounding the upcoming Brexit talks have been weighing over the pair, the US dollar pullback and an absence of major catalysts keep the traders calm off. Chart Of The Week: AUD/USD bulls advancing in bullish descending triangle within weekly support AUD/USD has fallen into weekly support, with room for a bullish correction in the near-term. Bullish prospects seek out a test of a congested area of moving averages. Should forex traders watch governments and ignore central banks? Examining USD, EUR, GBP More debt, more value? Currencies are moving not on higher interest rates but rather in response to growing government liabilities.    

FX Strategists remain bearish on EUR/USD, although they believe that a bottom could be in the making. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected EUR to ‘we

FX Strategists remain bearish on EUR/USD, although they believe that a bottom could be in the making. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected EUR to ‘weaken further’ last Friday but were of the view ‘oversold conditions could limit any decline to a probe of the major 1.0810 support’. While EUR weaken as expected, it only touched a low of 1.0826. Downward momentum has waned and the downside risk appears to be limited for today. All in, EUR is expected to consolidate and trade sideways, likely between 1.0820 and 1.0860.” Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR eked out a fresh ‘lower low’ of 1.0826 last Friday before closing at 1.0830 (-0.09%). While the weak phase that started more than a week ago is still intact, the combination of waning momentum and oversold conditions suggest that a bottom may not be far away. As highlighted early last Friday (14 Feb, spot at 1.0840), while a dip below 1.0810 (we first indicated this level last Monday) would not be surprising, the next support at 1.0770 could be out of reach. On the upside, a move above 1.0890 (‘strong resistance’ was at 1.0910 last Friday) would indicate the current weakness in EUR has run its course.”

The preliminary reading of Japan’s fourth quarter (Q4) 2019 GDP triggered recessionary fears of Asia’s top-tier economy and weighed on stocks during t

Expectations of further stimulus from Asia overweigh fears of the Japanese recession.Moody’s, IMF reiterated fears of Coronavirus.Markets in the US are off today, Chinese headlines will be the key catalyst.The preliminary reading of Japan’s fourth quarter (Q4) 2019 GDP triggered recessionary fears of Asia’s top-tier economy and weighed on stocks during the early-day. However, following announcements from China and Japan, showing readiness to infuse more liquidity, offered additional strength to the Asian equities. Also flashing downbeat signals were the IMF and Moody’s that tried compressing the risk-tone. However, news that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is about to lower the rate of 200 billion yuan ($28.65 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to financial institutions by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.15% from 3.25% previously countered the bears. With this, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan register 0.28% gains whereas Japan’s NIKKEI drops 0.60% to 23,548 by the press time of the pre-European session on Monday. Shares in China and Hong Kong are more than 1.0% plus whereas those of India register mild losses worth of 0.10% by the time of writing. Markets in Singapore also pay a little heed to the GDP forecast cut while expecting further monetary easing from home and abroad. The US markets are off today and that joins a lack of major data/events from elsewhere. As a result, the Asian shares are expected to carry the mixed sentiment unless anything key arrives from China.

CME Group’s flash data for EUR futures markets showed open interest rose by just 478 contracts on Friday, reaching the fourth consecutive build. On th

CME Group’s flash data for EUR futures markets showed open interest rose by just 478 contracts on Friday, reaching the fourth consecutive build. On the other hand, volume shrunk by nearly 33.1K contracts following three consecutive daily builds. EUR/USD looks supported near 1.0830 The decline in EUR/USD seems to have met some decent support in the 1.0830 region, or YTD lows so far. While rising open interest on Friday favours further losses in the near-term, the moderate drop in volume hints at the likeliness that the pair could be attempting to find a base, leaving extra pullbacks somewhat contained.

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), seems to have met strong resistance in the area of yearly tops around 99.20. US Dollar Index

DXY is down smalls, still close to YTD peaks.US markets are closed on Monday due to Washington’s Birthday.FOMC minutes, Philly Fed index, flash PMIs due later in the week.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), seems to have met strong resistance in the area of yearly tops around 99.20. US Dollar Index looks to China, data The index is giving away part of the recent advance to new multi-month peaks in the 99.15/20 band at the beginning of the week. In fact, the buck’s rally appears to be taking a breather on Monday amidst no fresh news around the COVID-19, alternating risk appetite trends and the absence of activity in the US markets due to the Washington’s Birthday holiday. February’s positive momentum around the greenback has been sustained so far by, in general, better-than-expected results in domestic fundamentals as well as persistent weakness in some of its rivals and safe haven demand on the back of increasing reported cases of the Wuhan coronavirus. Later in the week, the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be the salient event, seconded by the Philly Fed manufacturing gauge (Thursday) and advanced Markit’s PMIs for the month of February (Friday). What to look for around USD The index has extended the march north to the vicinity of 99.20 mark, clinching at the same time new 2020 tops. Investors should now keep looking to the performance of US fundamentals and the broader risk appetite trends for direction as well as any fresh developments from the COVID-19. In the meantime, the outlook on the dollar remains constructive and bolstered by the current “appropriate” monetary stance from the Fed vs. the broad-based dovish view from its G10 peers, the “good shape” of the domestic economy, the buck’s safe haven appeal and its status of “global reserve currency”. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is losing 0.05% at 99.11 and faces initial support at 98.75 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the February rally) seconded by 98.54 (monthly high Nov.29 2019) and then 98.22 (21-day SMA). On the other hand, a breakout of 99.17 (2020 high Feb.14) would aim for 99.37 (high Sep.3 2019) and finally 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1).

EUR/JPY registers modest gains of 0.06% while rising to 119.05 ahead of the European session on Monday.

EUR/JPY recently bounces off a four-month-old support line amid oversold RSI.An eight-day-old falling trend line, 200-day SMA restrict short-term upside.61.8% of Fibonacci retracement offers additional support.EUR/JPY registers modest gains of 0.06% while rising to 119.05 ahead of the European session on Monday. In doing so, the pair takes a U-turn from the four-month-old support line amid oversold RSI conditions. However, 50% Fibonacci retracement of its September 2019 to January 2020 upside still questions the immediate buyers. In addition to 119.40 nearby resistance, a short-term descending trend line near 119.85 and 200-day SMA around 120.45 could keep challenging the bulls. However, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 120.45 enables the buyers to challenge the monthly top surrounding 121.15. On the downside, the aforementioned support line near 118.80 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 118.50 will act as the immediate rest-points during the fresh declines. Should there be an additional weakness below 118.50, October month low near 117.00 could gain the sellers’ attention. EUR/JPY daily chart Trend: Bearish  

GBP/USD stays modestly weak around 1.3045/50 while heading into the London open on Monday. While pessimism surrounding the upcoming Brexit talks have

GBP/USD stays modestly negative amid hard Brexit fears.French diplomat spread worries of a bitter EU-UK Brexit talks, absence of British policymakers keep baffling global leaders.The US off will highlight Brexit headlines for traders.GBP/USD stays modestly weak around 1.3045/50 while heading into the London open on Monday. While pessimism surrounding the upcoming Brexit talks have been weighing over the pair, US dollar pullback and an absence of major catalysts keep the traders calm off-late. The UK diplomats continue to ignore the global events and raise speculations of being introvert after Brexit. “Britain is usually a prominent presence at the annual conference in Bavaria, where this year France’s President Emmanuel Macron, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi gathered to discuss issues from transatlantic defense co-operation to the security challenges posed by China and the impact of big tech on elections,” FT said recently. The Guardian also pointed out the Munich security summit to convey French Finance Ministers’ fears of tough Brexit talks between the EU and the UK when starting negotiations during the next month. On the other hand, fears of coronavirus have been conveyed by Moody’s and the IMF whereas policymakers from Japan and China stay ready to take possible measures. That said, the risk-tone stays sluggish with stocks in China contradicting those of India and Japan amid hopes of further monetary/fiscal measures to counter coronavirus risk. Given the absence of the US traders, due to the President’s Day holiday, coronavirus and Brexit are likely the key catalysts that market players will follow for short-term direction. Technical Analysis The bearish candlestick formation near the eight-day top, coupled with the repeated failures to cross 50-day SMA level of 1.3075, increase the odds of the pair’s declines to 100-day SMA around 1.2930. Alternatively, a downward sloping trend line from December, at 1.3130, adds to the resistance beyond 50-day SMA.  

Bloomberg reports the comments delivered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda in an interview with Sankei Shimbun, a Japanese daily, recently. K

Bloomberg reports the comments delivered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda in an interview with Sankei Shimbun, a Japanese daily, recently. Key Quotes: The virus is the biggest uncertainty for the economy. Will not hesitate to take action if needed.

Speaking at forum in Dubai on Sunday, Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Policy (IMF) managing director, said that the China coronavirus

Speaking at forum in Dubai on Sunday, Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Policy (IMF) managing director, said that the China coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) could have a significant impact on the world economy if it is not contained soon while hinting that the IMF could cut the global growth outlook over the virus outbreak. Key Quotes: It is going to affect the global value chains. It is already affecting tourism and travel. The forecast on global economic growth could be revised and reduced by a few percentage points due to the economic impact of the virus. China today has a bigger share of the world economy than during the SARS outbreak. Now it’s 19 percent. This is not good news for the world. Now we’re saying 3.3 percent is our forecast, but there may be a cut. We’re hoping it will be in .01 to .02 percentage space. Cautioned against jumping “prematurely into a conclusion. PBOC injects CNY 200 billion via one-year MLF on Monday Asia On Its Own On President’s Day

Japan Capacity Utilization came in at -0.4% below forecasts (0.2%) in December

Japan Capacity Utilization registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.2%) in December

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) below expectations (-3%) in December: Actual (-3.1%)

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at 1.2%, below expectations (1.3%) in December

USD/CAD declines to 1.3238, down 0.10%, by the press time of the pre-European session on Monday.

USD/CAD remains on the back foot, follows a one-week-old falling trend line.200-bar SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement can please sellers below the fresh monthly bottom.1.3330 offers the key upside resistance.USD/CAD declines to 1.3238, down 0.10%, by the press time of the pre-European session on Monday. Other than the pair’s sustained follow-up of the one-week-old descending trend line, its break of 100-bar SMA also favors the sellers. However, bears are waiting for entry below the monthly low surrounding 1.3230. In doing so, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s rise from December 31, 2019, to February 10, 2020, around 1.3185, will be on their radars. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the short-term falling trend line, at 1.3250 now, can trigger the pair’s fresh run-up towards 1.3280 and 1.3300. However, the bears can’t lose their hopes unless the quote rallies beyond the monthly top surrounding 1.3330. USD/CAD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

According to the latest trade data published by the Indonesian Statistics Bureau, the country posted a much bigger-than-expected trade deficit in Janu

According to the latest trade data published by the Indonesian Statistics Bureau, the country posted a much bigger-than-expected trade deficit in January. Indonesia reported a trade deficit of $0.87 billion vs. $0.27 billion expected and $0.03 billion previous. The imports and exports came in at -4.78% and -3.71% respectively vs. -5.66% and +1.19% expectations and -5.62% and +1.28% respective priors. The median forecast from economists was for a $0.27 billion trade deficit last month, the Reuters poll showed last week. Indonesia's trade deficit to widen in January - Reuters pollFX Implications USD/IDR remains little changed on downbeat Indonesian Trade Balance data, keeping the rates near daily lows of 13,675. At the press time, the cross trades 0.15% higher at 13,685. About Indonesia’s Trade Balance The Trade Balance released by Statistics Indonesia is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for Indonesian exports is seen, the Rupiah will receive a positive (or bullish) effect, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).  

Indonesia Imports above forecasts (-5.66%) in January: Actual (-4.78%)

Indonesia Trade Balance below forecasts ($-0.27B) in January: Actual ($-0.87B)

Indonesia Exports came in at -3.71%, below expectations (1.19%) in January

The bearish sentiment around the EUR/USD pair is currently at its strongest in eight months. Euro speculator positions have dropped by 10,000 in each

Net short positions in EUR/USD have reached the highest level in 35 months. The path of least resistance is to the downside, but signs of risk reset may yield a minor bounce. The bearish sentiment around the EUR/USD pair is currently at its strongest in eight months.  Euro speculator positions have dropped by 10,000 in each of the last three weeks and totaled -85,669 in the week ended Feb. 11. That is the most bearish net position
since June 2019.  Worst weekly close in nearly two years Euro closed last week at 1.0829 to print its weakest weekly close since April 2017. Notably, the single currency produced a big red marubozu candle for the second
straight week – a sign the sellers are in control.  While the path of least resistance is to the downside, deeper losses may be preceded by a bounce as the short-term technical studies are now reporting oversold conditions.  Further, the risk is holding up well despite fears the world's second-largest economy is coming to a near standstill, courtesy of coronavirus outbreak. At press time, the S&P 500 futures are up 0.20% and the Shanghai Composite is adding 1%.  The uptick could be associated with the decision by China's central bank to pump 100 billion yuan into the financial system. The data docket is light with the US markets closed on account of the President's Day holiday.  Technical levels  

USD/INR declines to the intra-day low of 71.40 as the Indian markets open for trading on Monday. The pair seems to have paid a little heed to the down

USD/INR registers the first negative day in three.The US holiday, signs of further monetary/fiscal easing from China and Japan seem to have helped the Asian currencies.Traders will keep eyes on coronavirus headlines for fresh impulse.USD/INR declines to the intra-day low of 71.40 as the Indian markets open for trading on Monday. The pair seems to have paid a little heed to the downbeat comments from the Moody’s and New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern as signals from additional monetary/fiscal measures from China and Japan triggered the profit-booking moves of the Asian currencies. In its latest update, the global rating giant Moody’s lowered its 2020/21 GDP forecasts for China as well as revised down G20 growth forecast to 2.4% for 2020. The global rating company also stated that coronavirus creates new risks to prospects of incipient stabilization of global growth this year resulting from truce in the US-China trade war. Additionally, downbeat comments from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Japanese Economy Minister Nishimura also flashed worrisome signals off-late. Further, Bloomberg came out with the piece suggesting additional fiscal/monetary measures from China. Additionally, The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was lowering the rate of 200 billion yuan ($28.65 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to financial institutions by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.15 percent from 3.25 percent previously. At home, India’s WPI Inflation for January, released on Friday, crossed a 2.92% forecast to 3.10%. Risk-tone remains mixed with major equities cheering expectations of further easing while fears of worst days ahead, due to coronavirus impact, cap the trade sentiment. It should also be noted that the US markets’ off due to the President’s Day holiday and a lack of data/events at home also contribute to the pair’s latest pullback. Technical Analysis While 100-day SMA near 71.30 acts as the immediate support, January month high near 71.85 limits the short-term advances by the pair.  

NZD/USD declines to 0.6433 during the early Monday’s trading session. The pair recently reacted to New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s downbea

NZD/USD extends downside following NZ PM cited downside risks to the economy due to China’s coronavirus.A confluence of 21-day EMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and short-term falling trendline become the key short-term resistance.Monthly lows are on short-term sellers’ radar.NZD/USD declines to 0.6433 during the early Monday’s trading session. The pair recently reacted to New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s downbeat comments. Technically, the pair trades below 21-day SMA, eight-day-old falling trend line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its November-December fall. In addition to the pair’s sustained trading below the key resistance, bearish MACD also favors further declines. As a result, sellers can now target the monthly bottom surrounding 0.6377 as the nearby support. However, a 0.6400 round-figure can offer an intermediate halt. If NZD/USD prices remain weak below 0.6377, November 2019 low near 0.6315 will lure the bears. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 0.6480/85 resistance confluence could trigger fresh recovery targeting a descending trend line since December 31, 2019, at 0.6525 now. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

USD/JPY is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 108.84, having hit a low of 109.72 in early Asia. The recovery has taken the shape of a l

USD/JPY has faded the drop below the 10-day moving average.The pair could challenge higher hurdles with the S&P 500 futures flashing green. USD/JPY is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 108.84, having hit a low of 109.72 in early Asia.  The recovery has taken the shape of a long-tailed candle on the daily chart. Notably, the bullish candle has appeared at the ascending 10-day average support and suggests the path of least resistance is to the downside.  The pair could challenge last week's high of 110.13 and may break higher if the mild risk-on in the equity markets seen at press time gathers steam, sending the safe-haven JPY lower. A violation at 110.13 would expose the 2020 high of 110.29 reached on Jan. 17.  On the downside, acceptance under 109.62 (Feb. 13 low) would imply the rally from the Jan. 31 low of 108.31 has made a temporary top and could bring a deeper slide to 109.00.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  
 

New Zealand (NZ) Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is out on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on NZ Treasury economic forecasts for 2020.

New Zealand (NZ) Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is out on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on NZ Treasury economic forecasts for 2020.

The latest Reuters poll of 41 economists showed that a majority of them believe that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) negative interest rate policy i

The latest Reuters poll of 41 economists showed that a majority of them believe that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) negative interest rate policy is not harming the Eurozone economy but it is doing little to ramp up the price pressures to reach the central bank’s objective. Key Findings: “More than two-thirds — 30 of 41 — of economists who answered an additional question in Feb. 10-14 Reuters survey nevertheless said the policy is not doing more harm than good to the Eurozone economy. The latest Reuters poll again predicted Eurozone inflation would average 1.3% this year, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and fall short of the target until at least 2022. Eurozone GDP growth was expected to average 0.2%-0.3% every quarter through to 2022. But the forecast for full-year growth this year was lowered for the first time in five months to 0.9%, the lowest since polling began for 2020. The ECB deposit rate would stay at -0.5% and the refinancing rate would remain at zero until at least 2022, unchanged from last month. A notable minority — 11 of 41 economists — said the ECB’s policy of negative rates was hurting the economy more than stimulating it.”

The buying interest around the Australian dollar looks to have strengthened somewhat over the last few minutes, possibly tracking the uptick in the US

AUD/USD has added more than 10 pips amid mild risk-on in the equities. Equities are flashing green despite coronavirus scare.The buying interest around the Australian dollar looks to have strengthened somewhat over the last few minutes, possibly tracking the uptick in the US equity index futures.  Risk sentiment eyed The futures on the S&P 500 are currently adding over 0.20% and the major Asian indices except Japan's Nikkei are flashing green. For instance, South Korea's Kospi and China's Shanghai Composite are up 0.23% and 1%, respectively.  The equities are putting on a good show despite the uptick in the number of coronavirus cases in China and across the globe. A total of 105 people were killed by the coronavirus in mainland China on Sunday, the Chinese National Health Commission (NHC) said. Further, a total of 2,048 cases were confirmed in mainland China on Sunday. The global tally is also rising with more than 71,319 cases of the virus recorded worldwide. The Aussie dollar is likely benefitting from the mild risk-on in the equities. At press time, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6725, having hit a high of 0.6730 a few minutes ago. The pair found bids around 0.6714 early Monday.  The currency could challenge resistance at 0.6750 (Feb. 12 high) in Europe if the risk sentiment continues to remain strong. It's worth noting that the hedge funds have recently turned bullish on the AUD on hopes that the resilient domestic economy would allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates on hold in the near term.  Technical levels
 

South Korea Trade Balance fell from previous $0.62B to $0.54B in January

On Monday, Singapore revised down its 2020 growth and exports forecasts on account of the economic fallout from the China coronavirus outbreak, sugges

On Monday, Singapore revised down its 2020 growth and exports forecasts on account of the economic fallout from the China coronavirus outbreak, suggesting recession risks in the economy, per Reuters. Key Points: The downgrade of its GDP forecast range to -0.5% to 1.5%, from 0.5% to 2.5% previously, opens up the possibility that full-year growth could be negative. The full-year forecast range for non-oil domestic exports was also lowered on Monday to -0.5% to 1.5%, from 0% to 2% previously. The revisions came as the city-state revised up slightly its 2019 fourth-quarter growth figures. The ministry’s permanent secretary, Gabriel Lim said: “The outlook for the Singapore economy has weakened since the last review... In particular, the COVID-19 outbreak is expected to affect the Singapore economy.”  The impact would be most keenly felt in manufacturing, trade, tourism and transport, alongside retail and food services, Lim added. On Friday. Singapore’s PM Lee Hsien Loong said that the economy could enter recession due to the blow from the coronavirus outbreak.

USD/CHF takes the bids to 0.9822, +0.03%, during early Monday. The quote recently flashed the fresh high since December 2019 while marking the intra-d

USD/CHF rises for the fourth consecutive day.Broad US dollar strength joins the market’s risk reset following Chinese efforts to tame coronavirus impacts.An absence of the US traders, no data/events will keep headlines from China in the spotlight.USD/CHF takes the bids to 0.9822, +0.03%, during early Monday. The quote recently flashed the fresh high since December 2019 while marking the intra-day top of 0.9824. Although broad trade sentiment has been under pressure due to China’s coronavirus, the latest efforts from China as well the US market’s off seem to have contributed to the pair’s recent run-up. Also favoring the pair bulls are the broad US dollar strength, based on mostly upbeat data as well as comments from Japanese Economy Minister Nishimura signaling further liquidity measures from the Asian nation after disappointing GDP data. To portray the risk-tone, the S&P 500 Futures mark 0.23% profits to 3,389 whereas stocks in China seem to benefit from the government’s readiness to take further measures to safeguard against the deadly virus. Looking forward, the US markets are off for the day and there are no major data/events scheduled for publishing from Switzerland. As a result, traders will keep eyes on the coronavirus headlines for fresh impulse.Technical Analysis The late-December 2019 tops around 0.9830/35, also including 100-day SMA, could act as an intermediate halt to the pair’s run-up towards 200-day SMA near 0.9865 and October 2019 low near 0.9890. Meanwhile, 50-day SMA near 0.9740 offers short-term strong support.  

EUR/USD's options market recently turned bearish on the common currency. Notable, the premium claimed by the put options (bearish bets) is now the hig

EUR/USD puts are drawing bids amid the slide in the common currency. Put options (bearish bets) are claiming the highest premium in nearly four months.EUR/USD's options market recently turned bearish on the common currency. Notable, the premium claimed by the put options (bearish bets) is now the highest in nearly four months.  One-month risk reversals (EUR1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts, crossed below zero on Feb. 10 and fell to -0.425 on Friday, the lowest level since Oct. 29, 2019.  A reading above zero indicates the premium claimed by calls (bullish bets) is higher than that for puts while a below-zero figure is the result of a higher volatility premium on puts. Therefore, the recent drop below zero represents a bearish shift in the market sentiment and Friday's drop to -0.425 indicates the demand for or the premium claimed by put options has hit the highest since the end of October.  Put simply, investors are positioned for a deeper drop in the common currency. EUR/USD topped out near 1.1095 at the end of December and fell to multi-year lows near 1.0830 on Friday. At press time, the pair is trading at 1.038 with the short duration technical studies signaling oversold conditions.  EUR1MRR

China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) fell from previous 5.8% to 4% in January

People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY 200 billion via a one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) on Monday, as hinted by some sources last hou

People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY 200 billion via a one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) on Monday, as hinted by some sources last hour.The MLF operation was conducted at 3.15% rate, down from 3.25% seen in the previous operation. Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank injected CNY 100 billion via seven-day Reverse Repos (RR) earlier today. USD/CNH Price Analysis: Weak inside two-week-old descending triangle PBOC has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9795

Moody's assumes that the coronavirus dents optimism just as global economy showed signs of stabilization. The rating agency has revised global growth

Moody's assumes that the coronavirus dents optimism just as global economy showed signs of stabilization. The rating agency has revised global growth forecasts down by two-tenths of a percentage point. Key notes Coronavirus creates new risks to prospects of incipient stabilisation of global growth this year resulting from truce in US-China trade war. Expects G-20 economies to collectively grow at annual rate of 2.4% in 2020. Revised downward GDP growth forecasts for China to 5.2% in 2020, and maintains an expectation of 5.7% growth in 2021. FX implications Markets are on alert which likely supports the yen, weighs on AUD/JPY and caps advances in the commodity complex, albeit the technical outlooks are bullish for the CRB index which is breaking higher to test critical resistance.   

USD/CNH declines to 6.9840 during early Monday. In doing so, the pair respects a two-week-old descending triangle formation.

USD/CNH snaps three-day winning streak.61.8% of Fibonacci retracement can lure sellers below the triangle’s support.100-day SMA offers an intermediate halt to the monthly top.USD/CNH declines to 6.9840 during early Monday. In doing so, the pair respects a two-week-old descending triangle formation. As a result, sellers can now take aim at the pattern’s support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January 20 to February 04 upside, around 6.9575/55 area. However, a sustained downside below the same, which is less likely, might not refrain from challenging the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 6.9130. Alternatively, the pair’s upside break of triangle’s resistance, at 6.9980 now, requires a validation from a 100-day SMA level on the daily chart, currently around 7.0120, to challenge the monthly top near 7.0235. If at all buyers dominate past-7.0235, December month high near 7.0870 will become their next target. USD/CNH four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Gold tested key resistance a few minutes ago, which, if breached, could accelerate the broader uptrend that has been in place since November. The yell

Gold pushed against the top end of the multi-week pennant pattern. A breakout would signal a revival of the bull run from November lows. Gold tested key resistance a few minutes ago, which, if breached, could accelerate the broader uptrend that has been in place since November.  The yellow metal ran into $1,584 – the top end of the pennant pattern (series of lower highs and higher lows) created over the last 6 weeks.  A pennant breakout would be confirmed if prices close Monday above $1,584, signaling a continuation of the rally from the Nov. 26 low of $1,463 and open the doors for a test and possible break above the recent high of $1,611.  Alternatively, if the yellow metal dives out of the narrowing price range, the sellers would regain control and could push the shiny metal down to $1,536 (pennant low), under which major support is seen at $1,500. At press time, an ounce of gold is changing hands at $1,582.  Daily chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

As er prior analysis, AUD/NZD has been recovering from a major support structure and subsequently penetrated the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the da

AUD/NZD has a near-term bias to the downside while below 1.0460.4-hour Bearish divergence vs daily bullish divergence seen capping immediate bullish longer-term prospects away from the weekly support structure. H&S structures playing out on both longer-term and short-term charts. As er prior analysis, AUD/NZD has been recovering from a major support structure and subsequently penetrated the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the daily highs through buy stop liquidity. This is in line with bullish divergence, a buy-signal for a prolonged bullish correction towards a 38.2% Fibo target at 1.0523, a 50% mean reversion in the 1.06 handle and a 61.8% Fibo target through the 1.0850s. The big picture   Daily bullish divergence 4HR set-up However, considering the bearish divergence on the shorter-term time frame, the near term price action could be on the verge of a test of the trendline support to target the 4-hour support structure at 61.8% Fibo, below a 50% mean reversion. This supports an outlook for consolidation between 1.0390/1.0460.

Japanese Economy Minister Nishimura was on the wires earlier on Monday, via Reuters, reassuring the markets following awful Q4 growth numbers. Key Quo

Japanese Economy Minister Nishimura was on the wires earlier on Monday, via Reuters, reassuring the markets following awful Q4 growth numbers. Key Quotes: Must watch for impact of coronavirus outbreak on Japan's economy via inbound tourism, supply chain disruption. Must be vigilant against risk coronavirus outbreak may affect Japan's economy via a slowdown in global growth, potential market volatility. Govt will swiftly implement emergency steps to counter coronavirus using funds from budget reserves.  Govt will take all steps necessary flexibly with an eye on virus impact on the economy, tourism. USD/JPY ignores downbeat preliminary figures of Japan Q4 GDP Japanese GDP SA (QoQ) Q4 -1.6% (est -1.0%; prev 0.1%; prev 0.4%)

China House Price Index fell from previous 6.6% to 6.3% in January

USD/IDR declines to 13,680 during the Asian session on Monday. While a broad pullback in the US dollar seems to have helped major counterparts, the pa

USD/IDR registers modest weakness amid the broad USD pullback.Fears of coronavirus keep the Indonesian rupiah under pressure despite an absence of any cases at home.Recently weak economics, BI’s bearish bias favor the buyers.USD/IDR declines to 13,680 during the Asian session on Monday. While a broad pullback in the US dollar seems to have helped major counterparts, the pair traders are waiting for January month trade numbers for fresh impulse. With the US markets off for the President’s Day Holiday, traders might have adhered to profit-booking moves despite the on-going market fears emanating from China. Chinese policymakers have recently announced a slew of policy measures, ranging from liquidity infusion to corporate tax cuts, to placate traders fearing a global slowdown due to the coronavirus. However, diplomats at the dragon nation have so far failed to achieve any noticeable victory as the latest numbers from Hubei, the epicenter of coronavirus, registered 1,933 fresh infections with 100 deaths. Even so, the Xi Jinping & company remains positive to tackle the epidemic and pledges to take more effective measures as per the Bloomberg. On the other hand, Indonesia hasn’t yet registered a single case of coronavirus but is struggling amid broad pessimism in Asia. The latest data from the nation have been downbeat and will keep pushing the Bank Indonesia (BI) to hold its bearish bias. However, market players will wait for January month trade numbers for immediate impulse. Forecasts suggest the headline Trade Balance widen to $-0.27B from $-0.03B. Further, Exports could weaken to 1.19% versus 1.28% previous readouts whereas Imports might slump further to -5.66% from -5.62% prior. Technical Analysis Unless breaking the monthly range between 13,600 and 13,835/40, prices are less likely to register a major move.  

In stimulus measures by the Chinese, battling with the risks of the coronavirus, it is rumoured that medium-term lending facilities of six to twelve-m

In stimulus measures by the Chinese, battling with the risks of the coronavirus, it is rumoured that medium-term lending facilities of six to twelve-month loans to banks from the People's Bank of China are expected to start today with lowered rats of borrowing for banks.  Meanwhile, China's Hubei province, the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic, reported 1,933 new cases and 100 new deaths on Feb. 16, the local health authority said on Monday. The Hubei health commission said the total number of cases in the province had reached 58,182 by the end of Sunday, with 1,696 deaths. The province announced tough new measures to try to curb the outbreak on Sunday, ordering its cities to block roads to all private vehicles. Athe same time, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) has released new measures on Sunday to try and mitigate the impact caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak, as well as help businesses resume production and improve the country's foreign trade conditions, the GAC said in a statement. FX implications The US dollar has been strong on the 99 handle in the DXY although, in conjunction with such headlines as this,  the CRB index is on the brink of confirming a bullish trend according to the daily 8 close vs 8 open moving average cross over which likely supports the case of higher commodity-FX, such as CAD, AUD and NZD.   

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9795 versus Friday's fix at 6.9843.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9795 versus Friday's fix at 6.9843.

Hedge funds have turned bullish on the AUD in recent weeks despite the Australian currency's slide to 11-year lows on coronavirus scare. Key points He

Hedge funds have turned bullish on the AUD in recent weeks despite the Australian currency's slide to 11-year lows on coronavirus scare.  Key points Hedge funds held a net long position in the Australian dollar of 4,044 contracts in the week ended Feb. 4, compared with net shorts of 36,264 at the end of last year, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  Aussie bulls think the resilient local economy will provide the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) room to keep rates on hold. That will allow the battered currency to regain some ground.  AUD/USD fell to an 11-year low of 0.6662 on Feb. 7 before charting a three-day winning streak to 0.6750.  The AUD picked up a bid after the RBA kept rates unchanged at a record low of 0.75% and suggested it may refrain from any further easing this year. The rate cut expectations will be heavily influenced by the next batch of job data due this Thursday. Economists are predicting the unemployment rate crept up to 5.2% in January from 5.1% the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey.

EUR/USD produced an inverted hammer candle on Friday, confirming the below-30 or oversold readings on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and ope

EUR/USD could be in for a corrective bounce, having printed an inverted hammer on Friday. Friday's inverted hammer is backed by an oversold reading on a key daily chart indicator. EUR/USD produced an inverted hammer candle on Friday, confirming the below-30 or oversold readings on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and opening the doors for a corrective bounce.  An inverted hammer comprises long upper shadow, small body and little or no lower wick. The pattern typically appears after a prolonged downtrend, as is the case here, and indicates the buyers are beginning to test sellers' resolve to keep the rate lower - an early sign of bullish reversal.  Alongside that, the hourly chart RSI is reporting a bullish divergence.  The pair may rise to the descending 5-day average at 1.0858, above which the next resistance is located at 1.0917 (10-day average).  The inverted hammer would be invalidated if the pair finds acceptance under 1.0827. That would bring in additional losses to 1.08. The spot is currently trading at 1.0836.  Daily chartTrend: Corrective bounce likely Technical levels  

AUD/USD drops to 0.6717, -0.03% with an intra-day low of 0.6715, by the press time of early Monday. In doing so, the pair justifies a bearish candlest

AUD/USD registers three-day losing streak.A bearish candlestick formation, sustained trading below short-term trend line keep sellers happy.Lows marked around 0.6680 can offer intermediate support.AUD/USD drops to 0.6717, -0.03% with an intra-day low of 0.6715, by the press time of early Monday. In doing so, the pair justifies a bearish candlestick formation portrayed on Friday while also extending the weakness below an eight-day-old resistance line and 21-day SMA. With this, sellers are on the lookout for the downside break of 0.6700 to target multiple supports around 0.6680, a break of which could recall the monthly low, also a decade bottom, surrounding 0.6660. If at all prices keep trading southwards past-0.6660, the bears wouldn’t mind aiming for 0.6600 round-figure. On the flip side, the immediate resistance line and 21-day SMA, respectively around 0.6740 and 0.6755, could restrict the pair’s near-term pullbacks. Should there be a further recovery beyond 0.6755, January 29 high near 0.6780 and multiple lows marked during early-January close to 0.6850 will return to the charts. AUD/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

In an article, by Bloomberg News, it writes that "China pledged to roll out more effective stimulus despite a widening fiscal gap as the novel coronav

In an article, by Bloomberg News, it writes that "China pledged to roll out more effective stimulus despite a widening fiscal gap as the novel coronavirus hits an already slowing economy, highlighting the challenges the epidemic is imposing as the death toll stacks up and thousands of new cases are reported each day." Key notes China’s government faced slowing revenue growth even before efforts to contain the virus led to the shutdown of most business. The majority of local governments expect income to grow at a slower pace this year than the provincial average in 2019, according to local budgets. With production yet to regain its full pace in all but a few pockets of the economy, increased stimulus to ensure steady growth may widen the fiscal gap and make policy fine-tuning more complicated. The nation will further perfect and implement measures this year to reduce corporate taxes and cut unnecessary government expenses as the virus takes a toll on production, Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote on Sunday in Qiushi, the Communist Party of China’s flagship magazine. Authorities are stressing the need to step up spending and ensure funds to contain the disease, regardless of heightened fiscal pressure, the finance minister, Liu Kun, wrote. Policies include reducing or exempting value-added taxes for firms providing essential goods or logistics, and more funds for provincial authorities, according to Liu. The outbreak of the virus and widening dislocation has dealt a shock to Asia’s largest economy that will burden the budget in Beijing, as well as in other economies across the region. On the same day Liu’s remarks were issued, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan warned the territory may incur a record deficit next fiscal year.  “While large-scale rolling back of taxes and fees may increase short-term challenges, the nation must take a longer-term view and make resolute steps to implement tax and fee cuts,” wrote Liu. FX implications The US dollar has been strong on the 99 handle in the DXY although the CRB index is on the brink of confirming a bullish trend according to the 8 close vs 8 open moving average cross over. On such news as this, markets will be relieved which should be supportive of commodity-FX, such as CAD, AUD and NZD.     

The downbeat fourth-quarter Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) data released Monday morning failed to inspire Yen selling, making it harder for EUR

EUR/JPY has backed off from session highs above the 119.00 mark. Dismal Japanese GDP has failed to inspire Yen sellers. Risk sentiment remains vulnerable to coronavirus scare.The downbeat fourth-quarter Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) data released Monday morning failed to inspire Yen selling, making it harder for EUR/JPY to establish a strong foothold above the 119.00 handle.  Biggest contraction in five years Japan's GDP contracted an annualized 6.3% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of 2019 to register the biggest quarterly contraction in five years, the official data released a few minutes before press time showed.  The average forecast of 34 economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research was for a decline of 3.55%.  Even so, the EUR/JPY cross extended its decline from the session high of 119.07 to 118.90, possibly because the markets were braced for a marked slowdown/contraction following October's sales tax hike.  Consumer spending fell 2.9% as the national sales tax was raised in October to 10% from 8%. During the same month, Typhoon Hagibis ravaged a large swathe of the country, according to the Nikkei Asian Review.  Also, the focus now is on the country's economic performance in the first quarter. Virus scare favors Yen strength Chinese officials are struggling to tame the coronavirus fears. There were 100 more deaths due to the novel coronavirus in China's Hubei province Sunday, the health authorities there said.  Further, more than 1,900 additional cases of the virus were confirmed Sunday, Hubei authorities said, bringing the total number of cases in the center of the outbreak to 58,182, according to CNN.  The virus scare could keep risk assets under pressure, helping the anti-risk Japanese yen score gains during the day ahead. That said, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently printing 0.10% gains. If the risk sentiment remains positive, EUR/JPY could rise convincingly above the 119.0 handles. At press time, the pair is flirting with the psychological hurdle. Technical levels  

AUD/JPY declines to 73.75, with the latest intra-day low of 73.70, following the release of Japan’s fourth quarter (Q4) GDP data during Monday’s Asian session.

AUD/JPY struggles to stop the previous two-day declines despite downbeat Japan GDP.Chinese efforts to tame coronavirus impact seem to fail to placate traders.Downbeat growth figures from Japan ahead of the coronavirus month of Japan signal the worst is ahead.AUD/JPY declines to 73.75, with the latest intra-day low of 73.70, following the release of Japan’s fourth quarter (Q4) GDP data during Monday’s Asian session. Japan’s economy flashed an alarming signal even if the numbers are for the period prior to the Chinese contagion that is likely to have a negative impact on global economies. The preliminary numbers for Japan’s Q4 GDP suggest a 6.3% annualized contraction versus -3.7% expected. On the QoQ basis, the growth figures drop 1.6% compared to the -0.9% forecast. Read: Japanese GDP SA (QoQ) Q4 -1.6% (est -1.0%; prev 0.1%; prev 0.4%) While the figures should ideally weaken the Japanese yen, it actually boosted the JPY’s safe-haven demand after the release. The reason is the fears emanating from the global top-tier economy that has previously registered four consecutive quarters of growth. Also contributing to the risk-off could be the time period as the coronavirus started dominating from early January and hence if the Q4 releases are downbeat the worst will be ahead of Q1 2020 data. While portraying the market’s risk-off, the S&P 500 Futures mark a mild gain worth of 0.11% to 3,385 by the press time. In doing so, the risk barometer might have respected China’s latest efforts to increase public spending and announce corporate tax while also speeding up the import procedures for manufacturing equipment and medicos. The latest figures from China’s Hubei province, the epicenter of coronavirus, suggest 1,933 new infected cases and 100 deaths by the end of February 16. Moving on, the economic calendar has fewer signals and hence coronavirus headlines will remain in the spotlight. However, Australia’s key employment data on Wednesday and Thursday, Wage Price Index and Employment Change respectively, will be important to watch for the pair traders. Technical Analysis Friday’s bearish spinning on the daily chart keeps sellers hopeful on the downside break of 73.60 while targeting 73.00. On the upside, a sustained break of 21-day SMA, currently at 73.95, could challenge the monthly top near 74.30.  

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.7% to 2.9% in February

USD/JPY declines to 109.80 following the release of Japan’s preliminary fourth quarter (Q4) GDP data as Tokyo opens for Monday trading.

USD/JPY remains on the back foot despite disappointing Japan GDP data.Chinese efforts to counter coronavirus seem to trigger the risk reset.Coronavirus/Brexit updates could entertain traders on the US President’s Day Holiday.USD/JPY declines to 109.80 following the release of Japan’s preliminary fourth quarter (Q4) GDP data as Tokyo opens for Monday trading. The market players seem to emphasize more on the qualitative catalysts than the data as far as the Japanese yen is concerned. Is GDP a signal to the BOJ? As per the preliminary forecasts, Japan’s economy contracted well below 0.9% figure to 1.6% while the annual figures also disappoint with -6.3% versus -3.7% expected. Read: Japanese GDP SA (QoQ) Q4 P -1.6% (est -1.0%; prevR 0.1%; prev 0.4%) The first economic contraction after the four consecutive quarters of growth pushes the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers to look towards further measures to safeguard the economy. While the recent statistics concerning spending and activity numbers have been soft, the diplomats should not ignore the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) suggestion related to the future moves. Risk catalysts keep the Yen strong… Despite the BOJ’s efforts to weaken the JPY, the safe-haven benefits from the market’s broad risk aversion. China’s coronavirus and Brexit are among the main catalysts exerting downside pressure on the pair. Chinese officials have tried from all the corners to tame the coronavirus fears and have registered an intermediate pullback in risk-tone. However, neither the broad sentiment nor the numbers have changed, which in turn keeps the USD/JPY pair on the back foot. While portraying the same, the US S&P 500 Futures show a +0.24% mark to 3,389 by the press time. As per the latest numbers from the epicenter Hubei, 1,933 new cases and 100 new deaths were registered on February 16. With this, the Hubei Health Commission said the total number of cases in the province had reached 58,182 by the end of Sunday, with 1,696 deaths. Elsewhere, the UK and the EU are at the loggerheads on various issues and the latest updates suggest a tough start to the Brexit talks, up for early-March negotiations. Looking forward, the US markets are closed for the President’s Day Holiday and hence fewer moves are expected to take place during the rest of the day. However, this doesn’t negate the possibilities of coronavirus/Brexit headlines to shake the quotes. Technical Analysis Friday’s Doji formation on the daily chart favors the pair’s another upside attempt towards 110.15 and 110.30 resistances that hold the keys to May 2019 top surrounding 110.70. Alternatively, 109.50/40 area comprising 50-day and 21-day SMAs could limit the pair’s short-term downside.  

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 2.3% to 0.8% in February

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 4Q: Actual (0.6%)

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (0.8%) in 4Q: Actual (1%)

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized registered at -6.3%, below expectations (-3.7%) in 4Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) registered at 1.3% above expectations (0.9%) in 4Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (-0.9%) in 4Q: Actual (-1.6%)

Japanese GDP SA (QoQ) Q4 P -1.6% (est -1.0%; prevR 0.1%; prev 0.4%) Description The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the mo

Japanese GDP SA (QoQ) Q4 P -1.6% (est -1.0%; prevR 0.1%; prev 0.4%)   Description The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative. FX implications

WTI slips from the monthly top to $52.40 during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair confronts short-term resistance while staying above the

WTI bulls catch a break after a four-day-old winning streak.A confluence of 100 and 200-day SMAs will challenge the buyers.10-day SMA offers immediate support.WTI slips from the monthly top to $52.40 during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair confronts short-term resistance while staying above the 10-day SMA. Also favoring the buyers are technical indicators like MACD and RSI. With this, buyers will look for entry beyond a 21-day SMA level of $52.50 while targeting January 29 high near $54.40. It should, however, be noted that a confluence of 100-day and 200-day SMAs near $56.45/50 will be the key upside barrier to watch during the black gold’s rise past-$54.40. Meanwhile, a 10-day SMA level near $51.35 could restrict the energy benchmark’s short-term declines. In the case where oil prices keep trading southwards below $51.35, $50.00 and the monthly bottom surrounding $49.40 should be watched carefully. WTI daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

Japan’s Finance Ministry is up for releasing the preliminary reading of the fourth quarter (Q4) 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures at 23:50 GMT

Japan’s Finance Ministry is up for releasing the preliminary reading of the fourth quarter (Q4) 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures at 23:50 GMT on Monday. Market consensus suggests a downbeat -0.9% QoQ figure versus +0.4% prior. Further, the yearly format also indicates an upcoming disappointment for the Japanese yen traders with a likely -3.7% figure compared to the earlier +1.8% GDP growth. Ahead of the release, Standard Chartered said, “We expect growth to have turned negative (-0.9% q/q) on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q4, reversing from four consecutive quarters of positive growth. We expect growth to have dropped 3.5% on an annualized basis.” While giving details, Westpac said, “Q4 GDP for Japan will be released Monday and if economists are correct we will see a sharp contraction. The current consensus is for a -3.8% SA QQ annualized outcome in Japanese GDP as a result of the increase in consumption tax, the impact of Typhoon Hagibis and ongoing tension over trade developments.”  How could Japan’s preliminary GDP affect USD/JPY? Weak consumption figures are likely to offer another challenge to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers. Although likely disappointing figures could keep pushing the Japanese central bank towards further easing, its extra dependence on the monetary policy measures has recently been criticized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, the diplomats might look for another window of opportunity to tame the fears of stagflation that have been fought for years. Technically, Friday’s Doji formation on the daily chart favors the pair’s another confrontation to the 110.15 and 110.30 resistances that hold the keys to May 2019 top surrounding 110.70. On the downside, 109.50/40 area comprising 50-day and 21-day SMAs could limit the pair’s short-term declines. Key Notes USD/JPY on the back foot for the start of the week, testing the 10-DMA USD/JPY Forecast: At risk of extending its slide amid risk-off About the Japanese Q4 Preliminary GDP The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.

NZD/USD has opened today a tough firmer in a bullish short term ascending triangle, trading around 0.6440 a the time of writing following a tight rang

NZD/USD perky in early Asia as the US dollar could well give back territory in immediate sessions. RBNZ's hawkish lean should remain supportive to the bird, much will depend on the developments in the coronavirus. China's Hubei province confirms another 1,933 new cases of coronavirus and 100 new deaths as of Feb 16th.
  NZD/USD has opened today a tough firmer in a bullish short term ascending triangle, trading around 0.6440 a the time of writing following a tight range on Friday between  0.6423 and 0.6444. The focus has been with the coronavirus as the total number of coronavirus cases in mainland China reaches almost 70,000. China's Hubei province confirms another 1,933 new cases of coronavirus and 100 new deaths as of Feb 16th while China’s National Health Commission this weekend, confirmed 142 additional deaths as of February 15th. However, there is a sense in the markets that the virus can be contained which has lead to increase risk appetite supporting the commodity complex, enabling a bottoming in the retracement of the rally following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish meeting. Eyes on the US dollar at this juncture At this juncture, the US dollar needs to give back some ground for there to be a full-on and convincing accent in the commodity currencies. There's been no let-up to the DXY’s uptrend to date, with the price firmly grounded on the 99 handle with 2019's high at 99.67 as the next stop. The broad sweep of US data so far in 2020 has been reassuring and last year’s 75bp in Fed cuts has been insulating the US more than most.  However, Friday's data in the December industrial production that came in well below expectations, as well as disappointing details within the Retail Sales data, will potentially cap the dollar's advance for the immediate sessions in what is a US holiday. The Atlanta Fed lowered its GDPNow forecast of Q1 GDP growth from 2.73% to 2.35%. On the other hand, the sentiment behind the US elections with President Donald Trump as a clear front runner in the elections this year could continue to underpin the dollar's upside, potentially weighing on commodities.  It then boils down to the central banks. With the Federal Reserve seen to be on hold, the RBNZ's revised OCR forecasts should underpin the bird. The revised forecast shows the OCR remaining at 1.00% throughout 2020, and indicating a hike by Q4 2021. NZD/USD levels The bird has broken the ascending tringle's resistance on the hourly time frame, having completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent range between the Feb. lows and post-RBNZ highs. Bulls will look for 0.6550 to hold as an important support structure before advances towards 0.6500/20/40 resistances.   

Gold prices stay mildly positive, +0.08%, to $1,583.84 during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal remains on the front foot amid the m

Gold remains modestly positive amid broad risk aversion.China’s coronavirus, fears of hard Brexit keep the risk-off intact.The US market’s off, a lack of major data could confine the moves.Gold prices stay mildly positive, +0.08%, to $1,583.84 during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal remains on the front foot amid the market’s fears emanating from China’s coronavirus. The latest Brexit-negative headlines also contribute to the risk aversion. China tries it all to tame coronavirus implications… Be it more than 300 billion Chinese yuan liquidity infusion or announcing corporate tax cuts and an increase in fiscal spending, the diplomats in China are trying from all corners to placate markets. However, they have been less successful so far. The latest action comes from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) that speeded up inspection of imported manufacturing equipment and simplifying the quarantine approval procedures for foreign medical goods. Even so, the increasing toll of the coronavirus fears the markets. The total number of infected people from the deadly disease crossed 68,500, with a death toll rising to 1,665, on February 15. As a result, the US 10-year treasury yield and the German bunds remain on the back foot. However, global equities seem to portray the mixed signs amid upbeat signals from the US. Brexit also contributed to the risk aversion… In addition to the Chinese epidemic, fears of a no-deal Brexit also contribute their part to the markets’ risk aversion. With the Tories at the helm, the European Union (EU) leaders aren’t finding themselves in a comfortable position while heading into the Brexit trade deal talks up for early March. The recent headlines from The Telegraph and The Guardian suggest that there will be a tough start to the talks considering the differences between the two ex-neighbors. Although risk aversion will keep the yellow metal on the bulls’ radars, an absence of the US traders could give rise to a dull trading session. However, the preliminary reading of Japan’s fourth quarter (Q4) GDP, expected -0.9% versus +0.4% prior, can offer immediate direction to the bullion. Technical Analysis A downward sloping trend line since January 08, around $1,585 now, can restrict the precious metal’s near-term upside. However, an eight-day-old rising trend line, currently at $1,570, could challenge intra-day sellers.  

China's Hubei province confirms another 1,933 new cases of coronavirus and 100 new deaths as of Feb 16. More to come...

 China's Hubei province confirms another 1,933 new cases of coronavirus and 100 new deaths as of Feb 16. More to come...
 

GBP/JPY weakens to 143.17 amid the initial Asian trading session on Monday. The quote recently slipped from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its January

GBP/JPY fails to hold the break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.The bulls stay hopeful unless the pair breaks 142.70 support confluence.Fresh monthly high could renew buying interest.GBP/JPY weakens to 143.17 amid the initial Asian trading session on Monday. The quote recently slipped from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its January 22 to February 04 declines. Even so, a confluence of 200-bar SMA and an upward sloping trend line from February 10 could challenge the bears. A lower low formation on the four-hour chart pushes the sellers to await the downside break of 142.70 support confluence while targeting 142.15 and 142.00 supports. During the quote’s further weakness below 142.00, 141.65 and the monthly low near 140.90 could offer intermediate halts to 140.00 psychological magnet. Alternatively, buyers will look for an entry on the break of the month’s high surrounding 143.50. In doing so, 144.00 and late-January tops close to 144.60 will be on their radars. GBP/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

In order to ensure sufficient industrial material supplies and maintain market stability in China, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) release

In order to ensure sufficient industrial material supplies and maintain market stability in China, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) released new measures on Sunday. The key among them is a push to speeding up the inspection of imported manufacturing equipment and simplifying the quarantine approval procedures for foreign medical goods. Key quotes The move is aimed to mitigate the impact caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak, as well as help businesses resume production and improve the country's foreign trade conditions, the GAC said in a statement. The statement said companies that need to send goods to laboratories for testing can rely on third-party certification, test reports or enterprise quality and safety self-declaration to gain the green light for quick customs inspection and release. It will further cut the proportion and time for lab testing. The GAC supports the increase in agricultural products and food imports. They also will establish green channels for farm products and foodstuff imports at key ports, and provide 24-hour advance clearance service. The GAC also will allow customs branches across the country to directly inspect and release goods for certain imported medical items, such as vaccines, blood products and reagents for the purpose of epidemic control and prevention as soon as possible, as a precondition of controllable risks. FX implications While coronavirus headlines are a hot topic nowadays, news like this fails to placate the risk-off. To portray this, USD/JPY remains on the back foot around 109.80 amid the initial Asian trading session on Monday.

In order to ensure sufficient industrial material supplies and maintain market stability in China, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) release

In order to ensure sufficient industrial material supplies and maintain market stability in China, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) released new measures on Sunday. The key among them is a push to speeding up the inspection of imported manufacturing equipment and simplifying the quarantine approval procedures for foreign medical goods. Key quotes The move is aimed to mitigate the impact caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak, as well as help businesses resume production and improve the country's foreign trade conditions, the GAC said in a statement. The statement said companies that need to send goods to laboratories for testing can rely on third-party certification, test reports or enterprise quality and safety self-declaration to gain the green light for quick customs inspection and release. It will further cut the proportion and time for lab testing. The GAC supports the increase in agricultural products and food imports. They also will establish green channels for farm products and foodstuff imports at key ports, and provide 24-hour advance clearance service. The GAC also will allow customs branches across the country to directly inspect and release goods for certain imported medical items, such as vaccines, blood products and reagents for the purpose of epidemic control and prevention as soon as possible, as a precondition of controllable risks. FX implications While coronavirus headlines are a hot topic nowadays, news like this fails to placate the risk-off. To portray this, USD/JPY remains on the back foot around 109.80 amid the initial Asian trading session on Monday.

While depending upon the comments from French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, The Guardian came out with the Brexit-negative news on Sunday. The

While depending upon the comments from French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, The Guardian came out with the Brexit-negative news on Sunday. The French diplomat is cited turning down the hopes of a Brexit deal between the UK and the EU while speaking at the Mnuchin security forum. Key quotes French foreign minister says it will be hard for the UK to strike a deal by end of the year given differences ‘I think on trade issues and the mechanism for future relations, which we are going to start on, we are going to rip each other apart.’ He added that on his desk in his office he had massive files showing the issues of contention between the UK and France, including over fishing rights.  'Let us hope that it is done as quickly as possible even if there are many subjects and that we have substantial points to manage,' said Le Drian. 'I have one in particular (...) which is the question of fish'. FX implications The news joins the weekend headlines from The Telegraph, suggesting the UK to refuse to abide by EU rules on tax and workers' rights while flashing a negative signal for the British pound. With this, the GBP/USD pair trades mildly weaker to 1.3040 by the press time of early Monday morning in Asia.
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